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[기후변화] 향후 30년간 작은 빙하기가 도래할 것이라는 주장

독일 키엘대학교(Kiel University )의 교수이자 유엔 ‘기후변화에 관한 정부간 패널(IPCC) ’ 보고서의 저자인 모지브 라티프(Mojib Latif) 박사가 향후 30년간  작은 빙하기(mini ice age)가 도래할 것이라고 주장했다는 폭스뉴스의 보도입니다.

그는 북대서양 진동(North Atlantic Oscillation : NAO)이 한파의 원인이라고 주장하고 있습니다. 다시 말해 지구 온난화로 북극의 얼믐물이 녹기 시작하여 태평양과 대서양으로 흘러들어 해양의 온도를 떨어뜨리고 해류의 움직임을 막아 적도의 열이 북쪽으로 이동하지 못해 작은 빙하기가 시작된다는 얘기입니다.(한편, 일부 학자들은 북극의 제트기류와 엘니뇨가 한파와 폭설의 원인이라고 주장하고 있습니다.)

라티프 교수는 영국의 [Daily Mail]과 인터뷰에서 “1980~2000년과 20세기 초의 지구 온난화 상당 부분은 이러한 주기들에 따른것이다. 아마도 50% 정도는 그렇다”고 밝혔습니다.

그는 온난화주기들이 거꾸로 바뀌어 앞으로는 추운 겨울이 더 자주 있을 것이며, 여름도 더 서늘해질 것으로 예측했습니다. 이러한 작은 빙하기는 20년 혹은 그 이상 지속될 것이며, 빙하와 해빙의 감소가 멈춤에 따라 지구온난화가 중지될 것이라고 예상했습니다.

대부분의 기후학자들은 온실가스가 계속 증가하고 있고, 태양에너지의 양에 변화가 없기 때문에 지구 온난화가 가속화될 것으로 예측하고 있습니다.

앞으로 지구의 기후변화가 온난화가 될 것인지, 한랭화가 될  것인지는 시간이 그 해답을 알려주겠지만… 한동안 기후변화를 둘러싼 전문가들 사이의 논쟁이 뜨거워질 것으로 예상됩니다.

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30 Years of Global Cooling Are Coming, Leading Scientist Says



출처 : 폭스뉴스 January 11, 2010
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/01/11/years-global-cooling-coming-say-leading-scientists/



From Miami to Maine, Savannah to Seattle, America is caught in an icy grip that one of the U.N.’s top global warming proponents says could mark the beginning of a mini ice age.



From Miami to Maine, Savannah to Seattle, America is caught in an icy grip that one of the U.N.’s top global warming proponents says could mark the beginning of a mini ice age.


Oranges are freezing and millions of tropical fish are dying in Florida, and it could be just the beginning of a decades-long deep freeze, says Professor Mojib Latif, one of the world’s leading climate modelers. 


Latif thinks the cold snap Americans have been suffering through is only the beginning. He says we’re in for 30 years of cooler temperatures — a mini ice age, he calls it, basing his theory on an analysis of natural cycles in water temperatures in the world’s oceans.


Latif, a professor at the Leibniz Institute at Germany’s Kiel University and an author of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, believes the lengthy cold weather is merely a pause — a 30-years-long blip — in the larger cycle of global warming, which postulates that temperatures will rise rapidly over the coming years. 


At a U.N. conference in September, Latif said that changes in ocean currents known as the North Atlantic Oscillation could dominate over manmade global warming for the next few decades. Latif said the fluctuations in these currents could also be responsible for much of the rise in global temperatures seen over the past 30 years. 


Latif is a key member of the UN’s climate research arm, which has long promoted the concept of global warming. He told the Daily Mail that “a significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles — perhaps as much as 50 percent.” 


The U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSICD) agrees that the cold temperatures are unusual, and that the world’s oceans may play a part in temperatures on land. 


“Has ocean variability contributed to variations in surface temperature? Absolutely, no one’s denying that,” said Mark Serreze, senior research scientist with NSIDC. But the Center disagrees with Latif’s conclusions, instead arguing that the cold snap is still another sign of global warming.


“We are indeed starting to see the effects of the rise in greenhouse gases,” he said. 


Many parts of the world have been suffering through record-setting snowfalls and arctic temperatures. The Midwest saw wind chills as low as 49 degrees below zero last week, while Europe saw snows so heavy that Eurostar train service and air travel were canceled across much of the continent. In Asia, Beijing was hit by its heaviest snowfall in 60 years.


And as for the cold weather? 


“This is just the roll of the dice, the natural variability inherent to the system,” explained Serreze. 


Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article erroneously reported that the NSIDC reports concluded that the warming of the Earth since 1900 is due to natural oceanic cycles.

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