ECDC RISK ASSESSMENT

Pandemic H1N1 2009

Version 6 – 6 November 2009

출처 : http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/Documents/0908_Influenza_AH1N1_Risk_Assessment.pdf

What’s new or different in this update?

This update is informed by the first experiences from this autumn in Europe and North America as well as further analyses from the Southern Hemisphere’s temperate countries during their winter season.

It also includes:
 details of the clinical experience of people who are becoming severely ill;
 the first adjusted planning assumptions for European countries not significantly affected by the earlier
wave;
 the basic parameters of the pandemic, drawing on work undertaken with WHO and ECDC Advisory Forum;
 confirmation that many older people possess prior immunity, but that those who are not immune are more
at risk of severe disease than any other age group;
 more information on the extent of asymptomatic and very mild cases and;
 first estimates of the relative risk for those who, if they have certain risk factors, become severely ill with
this infection (pregnant women, people with asthma and other chronic respiratory diseases and massively
obese people).