STOCKHOLM (Reuters) – The H1N1 pandemic flu virus could kill up to 40,000 people across Europe and be followed by seasonal flu waves that could kill the same number, European health experts said on Friday.

The Sweden-based European Center for Disease Prevention and Control said epidemics of H1N1, known as swine flu, were now affecting almost all countries in the European Union but it could not predict how intense the peaks would be.

What was certain, it said, was that the pandemic would continue to kill thousands and put many patients into intensive care as the northern hemisphere‘s winter sets in.

“All European countries will be affected, and this will put considerable stress on healthcare systems,” said ECDC director Zsuzsanna Jakab.

The ECDC, which monitors disease in the European Union and European free trade area (EFTA), said it was hard to predict what the mix of pandemic and seasonal flu viruses would bring but there was a risk of seasonal flu epidemics “early in 2010 when the pandemic waves have passed.”

Angus Nicoll, the ECDC’s flu coordinator, said in non-pandemic situations, seasonal flu could kill up to 40,000 people in Europe — and H1N1 could do the same.

“That is not a trivial number,” he said. “And the fact that H1N1 is happening in younger adults, pregnant women and people without risk factors … makes it feel different.”

RISKS AND DEATHS

The ECDC said experience from the United States and the southern hemisphere showed pregnant women with the virus are 10 times more likely to need intensive care than those with no risk factors. Those with asthma and chronic respiratory diseases have three times the risk and the very obese six times the risk.

But it also said evidence so far shows some 20 to 30 percent of H1N1 deaths are among healthy young people.

The ECDC’s latest daily update said all 27 EU and four EFTA countries have cases of H1N1 pandemic flu and there have been 389 deaths linked to H1N1 in the region since April, including 154 in Britain, 73 in Spain, 25 in Italy and 22 in France.

The ECDC’s global toll showed 6,005 fatal cases of H1N1 have been reported. The WHO, which updates its figures weekly, said on Thursday 5,712 people have died worldwide since H1N1 was discovered earlier this year.

The ECDC said the numbers of fatal cases associated with pandemic flu were “likely to be gross underestimates” as access to healthcare and lab tests varied from country to country.

GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi-Aventis are among some 25 companies making pandemic vaccines, while other drugmakers including Roche are making antiviral therapies for use as frontline H1N1 treatment.

Nicoll said vaccination programs which started in some European countries in recent weeks were vital to protecting those most at risk but had come too late to halt the disease.

“We’re not trying at this stage to protect the whole of society with the vaccines. The strategy is to protect the vulnerable.”

(Editing by Janet Lawrence)

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80,000 flu deaths predicted in Europe

By Fiachra Ó Cionnaith and Evelyn Ring

출처 : Irish Examiner  Saturday, November 07, 2009
http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/kfauojausnsn/rss2/

A MAJOR medical monitoring group has claimed 80,000 Europeans could die from swine flu in the coming months, naming Ireland as one of the EU’s hotspots for the deadly pandemic.

Figures released by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) show that in recent weeks almost every country on the continent has seen a sharp rise in swine flu cases and hospitalisations.

Despite the widespread increase, the influential group singled out Ireland and Iceland as being worst affected by the pandemic and witnessing the highest intensity of swine flu diagnoses per head of population anywhere in the EU.

In the past week alone there have been 30,000 cases of swine flu in Ireland, with 14 deaths in the Republic and a further 10 fatalities in the North since the pandemic began.

As a result, the ECDC has placed Ireland in the “very high” risk category for further swine flu deaths — one of just two countries in the crisis situation.

According to the ECDC survey, Sweden is next-highest on the swine flu risk list, followed by Britain, both of whom are in the “moderate” category.

In the 27 EU countries and four European Free Trade Area (EFTA) nations there have been 389 swine flu-related deaths to date, including 14 in Ireland, 154 in Britain, 73 in Spain, 25 in Italy and 22 in France.

More than 6,000 fatalities have been reported worldwide.

As a result of the increase in cases across the continent, the ECDC has warned that up to 40,000 people could die from swine flu in the current pandemic, with a similar number also predicted to lose their lives in subsequent seasonal flu epidemics next year.

“That is not a trivial number. And the fact that H1N1 is happening in younger adults, pregnant women and people without risk factors makes it feel different,” explained the ECDC’s flu co-ordinator, Angus Nicoll.

The figures emerged as Health Minister Mary Harney confirmed children aged six months to four years, over-65s and all healthcare workers can receive the vaccine from next week.

“This is a national emergency as far as the health services are concerned,” Ms Harney admitted.

“The issues that confront us are no different than issues that confront other health ministries right around the world, particularly in the EU. But I think we have the capacity working together to be able to vaccinate the population as quickly as possible.”

This story appeared in the printed version of the Irish Examiner Saturday, November 07, 2009

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