[ 보고서: 대서양자유무역협정에 대한 초국적제약사의 희망사항이 유럽의 보건의료정책을 무력화시킬 것 ]*

3월 24일 Health Action International Europe 등 유럽의 6개 단체가 공동으로 대서양무역협정(TTIP 또는 TAFTA)에 대한 초국적제약사의 Wish List에 대한 분석 보고서를 발표했다. 대서양무역협정은 미국과 유럽연합간 협상중인 자유무역협정이다. 초국적제약사의 Wish List중 가장 우려스러운 5가지 제안을 다음과 같이 꼽았다.

① 지적재산권 규정의 변화: 독점기간 연장, 높은 약가, 치료적 가치가 나아지지 않은 신약의 증가

② 약가 및 상환정책 제한: 국가보건의료시스템내에서 약가를 통제하기위한 정부정책 무력화

③ 임상시험의 투명성 제한: 유럽의약품기구(EMA)의 임상시험에 대한 새로운 규정을 무력화

④ 분쟁메카니즘 등: 투자자국가중재(ISD), 정책결정에 기업의 개입 증가

⑤ 국제기준 변화: 다른 나라에도 부정적 영향을 미칠 것

이 중에서 지적재산권 규정에 대해서는 특허기간 연장, 허가-특허 연계, 특허적격성, 생물학적제제에 대한 자료독점권, 상표권이 의약품접근권 및 보건의료에 악영향을 미칠 것이라고 지적했다.  지적재산권 관련 법과 규정에 있어서 유럽과 미국간에는 상당한 차이가 있다. 유럽에는 의약품 시판허가과정에서 소요된 기간에 대해서는 특허기간을 연장해주고 있지만 특허심사 및 등록과정에서 소요된 기간에 대해서는 특허기간 연장을 허용하지 않고 있다. 그리고 유럽에서는 허가-특허 연계가 허용되지 않고, EU Directive 2001/83/EC와 배치된다. 유럽사법재판소는 허가-특허 연계제도를 반경쟁메카니즘으로 취급한다. 특허적격성 기준은 유럽이 미국보다는 엄격하다. 예를 들어 특허적격성 기준 중에서 유용성(utility, 미국)과 산업적 적용기준(industrial application standard, 유럽)은 비슷하게 취급되는데 일반적으로 유용성이 더 낮은, 느슨한 기준이다. 유럽이 자료독점권에 대해서는 강세이지만 미국이 생물학적제제(바이오의약품)에 대한 자료독점권을 12년 보장하고 있어서 이에 대해서도 우려한다. 또한 상표권을 제한하지 않으면 일반명, 성분명 사용을 제한받을 수 있다고 우려한다.

유럽은 국가보건의료체계가 잘 갖춰줘있는 편이지만 비싼 약값으로 인한 재정부담을 갖고 있다. 특히 포르투갈, 스페인, 그리스는 재정위기를 겪은 후 의약품지출을 상당히 줄였는데, 그리스의 경우 6천명이상의 어린이에게 백신접종을 못하고 있는 상황이다. 대서양자유무역협정에 대한 초국적제약회사의 희망사항이 받아들여진다면 이러한 상황은 더욱 악화될 것이라고 우려했다.

-보도자료 및 보고서:  The US-EU Trade Agreement Proposals by the pharmaceutical
industry undermine European public policy making and public health
<http://commonsnetwork.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EN_Press-release-TTIP_Big-Pharma.pdf>

*원문 보고서는 아래 링크에 가면 볼 수 있습니다.

http://commonsnetwork.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/24_03_2014_CivilSocietyResponse_BigPharma_WishList_final1.pdf

2014.1.6 박상표

1. 한국경제의 디플레이션 가능성을 다시 생각한다 (첨부파일 1)
출처 : 우리금융경영연구소 주간 금융경제 동향 (2013-52 ) 2013-12-31
http://www.wfri.re.kr/client/PublishHp.do?command=view&list_dis_txt=PUB&current_page=1&insp_dis=PG00041&list_unq_no=RP00000001093&search_category=1&search_keyword=&topMenuNo=H20000&leftMenuNo=H20300&leftSubMenuNo=H20304

저자 임일섭

최근 저성장 국면이 지속되는 가운데, 2013년 소비자물가 상승률이 1999년 이후 최저치인 1.3%에 그치는 등 저물가 기조가 심화되면서 우리경제가 일본식 장기불황에 빠질 우려가 다시 부각되고 있다. 저성장과 저물가 국면에 진입한 수년 이후 디플레이션이 본격화된 일본의 사례를 감안할 때, 향후 우리경제도 수요부진과 원화 강세 등으로 인한 저성장･저물가 기조가 계속되면서 디플레이션 압력이 꾸준히 높아질 가능성에 대비할 필요가 있다. 디플레이션 예방을 위한 통화정책의 역할이 강화되어야
함은 물론, 정부의 거시정책도 내수 활성화를 통한 수요 진작에 초점이 맞추어질 필요가 있다.

================

2. 2014년 국내외 경제전망, 성장률 3% 중반의 완만한 회복

출처 : LG경제연구원 2013.12.17
http://www.lgeri.com/economy/domestic/article.asp?grouping=01010100&seq=957

http://www.krmcia.or.kr/data/data/LGBI1280-02_20131217132659.pdf

===================

3. 2014년 거시경제 전망 (첨부파일 2)

출처 : 산업연구원 발간일 2013/12/06
http://www.kiet.re.kr/kiet_web/main.jsp?sub_num=9&state=view&idx=45136&ord=0

산업연구원은 보고서를 통해 세계경제가 완만하나마 회복세를 이어감에 따라 수출 증가세가 확대되고 내수도 회복세가 확산되면서 2014년 국내경제는 장기추세성장률에 근접한 3.7% 내외의 성장을 보일것으로 예상하였다.

- 미국 출구전략의 여파, 중국 성장둔화, 일본의 소비세 인상 여파 등 대외 위험요인과 국내 가계부채 문제 등이 변수로 작용할 전망임. 전체적으로 하방 위험요인이 다소 우세한 가운데 상·하반기 비슷한 성장추이가 이어질 전망임.

- 민간소비는 수출 회복에 힘입은 소득 상승, 유가 안정과 환율 하락에 따른 교역조건 개선 등으로 전년보다 높은 3%대 초반의 증가가 예상됨. 설비투자는 수출회복과 불확실성 완화로 IT제조업을 중심으로 활발한 회복 추이를 보이며 연간 5%대 중반의 증가가 예상, 건설투자는 공공 인프라 예산 축소 등으로 증가세가 다소 둔화될 전망

- 수출은 세계경제 부진 완화로 전년보다 증가율이 높아지면서 연간 6.7%의 증가를 보일 전망임. 수입은 수출 및 내수 회복에 따라 9% 내외의 증가를 예상함. 수입증가율이 수출증가율을 상회하면서 무역수지는 전년보다 감소한 330억 달러 내외의 흑자를 기록할 것으로 예상됨.

=================

4. 2014년 세계경제 전망(첨부파일 3)

출처 : 대외경제정책연구원 발간일 2013/12/02
http://www.kiep.go.kr/skin.jsp?page=1&num=185617&mode=view&field=&text=&grp=publication2&bid=Pub0301&ses=USERSESSION&psize=10

대외경제정책연구원은 보고서를 통해 2014년 세계경제 및 국제금융.상품시장에 대해 전망하고 2014년 세계경제 주요 이슈들을 정리해 보았다.

- 2014년 세계경제는 3.6%(PPP 환율 기준)의 성장률을 기록할 것으로 전망되며, 글로벌 금융위기와 유럽 재정위기 이후 장기간의 경기침체를 겪고 있는 선진국들의 경기 회복세가 세계경제 성장을 견인할 것으로 전망함. 한편 신흥국들은 전반적으로 그동안의 고성장 기조보다는 낮은 성장세를 보일 것으로 전망함.

- 2014년 세계경제는 경기를 호전시키는 상방요인보다 경기를 하강시키는 하방리스크를 더 많이 안고 있어서 예상보다 더 낮은 성장세를 보일 가능성이 많다는 점에 주의가 필요함. 2014년 세계경제의 하방리스크로는 첫째, 미국의 양적완화 축소, 둘째, 유럽의 경기회복세 둔화, 셋째, 일본 소비세 인상과 아베노믹스 효과의 감소, 넷째, 중국경제의 성장률 둔화, 다섯째, 신흥국 금융시장 불안정성 고조가 있음.

===========

5. 2014년 경제전망 2014년 경제전망

출처 : 기획재정부 2013. 12. 27
http://www.mosf.go.kr/_upload/bbs/62/attach/20131230085328434.pdf‘

차례

Ⅰ. 최근 경제상황 평가 ··········································· 1

1. 경제성장················································································1
2. 고용 ·························································································8
3. 가계소득과 임금 ······························································· 12
4. 물가와 부동산 가격 ························································· 13
5. 수출입과 경상수지 ··························································· 18
6. 금융시장과 자금사정 ······················································· 23
7. 외환시장···········································································27
8. 평가 ···············································································28
Ⅱ. 대외여건 점검 ··················································· 29
1. 세계경제 ·········································································29
2. 국제원자재가격 ································································· 33
3. 국제금융시장 ···································································35
Ⅲ. 2014년 경제전망 ············································· 39
1. 경제성장 ········································································39
2. 고용 ·············································································47
3. 소비자물가 ····································································49
4. 수출입과 경상수지 ··························································· 51

=========================

Ballistic Missile Defense in the Asia-Pacific Region: Cooperation and Opposition

출처 : 미의회조사국 June 24, 2013
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R43116.pdf

Ian E. Rinehart
Analyst in Asian Affairs
Steven A. Hildreth
Specialist in Missile Defense
Susan V. Lawrence
Specialist in Asian Affairs

Jack A. Heinemann^ab*, Melanie Massaro^bc, Dorien S. Coray^ab, Sarah Zanon Agapito-Tenfen^bd & Jiajun Dale Wen^e

DOI: 10.1080/14735903.2013.806408
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14735903.2013.806408#.UcDJUxYlwd2

Abstract

Jump to section

• Introduction
  
• Materials and methods
  
• Results and discussion
  
• Conclusion
  
• Future strategies

An agroecosystem is constrained by environmental possibility and social choices, mainly in the form of government policies. To be sustainable, an agroecosystem requires production systems that are resilient to natural stressors such as disease, pests, drought, wind and salinity, and to human constructed stressors such as economic cycles and trade barriers. The world is becoming increasingly reliant on concentrated exporting agroecosystems for staple crops, and vulnerable to national and local decisions that affect resilience of these production systems. We chronicle the history of the United States staple crop agroecosystem of the Midwest region to determine whether sustainability is part of its design, or could be a likely outcome of existing policies particularly on innovation and intellectual property. Relative to other food secure and exporting countries (e.g. Western Europe), the US agroecosystem is not exceptional in yields or conservative on environmental impact. This has not been a trade-off for sustainability, as annual fluctuations in maize yield alone dwarf the loss of caloric energy from extreme historic blights. We suggest strategies for innovation that are responsive to more stakeholders and build resilience into industrialized staple crop production.

Keywords

===============

GMO 많은 미 캐나다 유럽보다 생산성 낮아

한겨레 등록 : 2013.06.20 20:20 수정 : 2013.06.20 21:20
http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/economy/economy_general/592672.html

미국과 캐나다의 유전자조작(GM) 농산물이 그렇지 않은 유럽의 농산물보다 생산성이 오히려 더 떨어진다는 국제 연구 결과가 나왔다. 유전자조작 농산물이 생산량 증대로 세계의 식량문제를 해결할 수 있다는 기존 주장과 전면적으로 배치돼 파장이 주목된다.

오스트레일리아, 뉴질랜드, 브라질, 말레이시아의 공동연구팀은 14일 발간된 <농업 지속가능성 국제저널>(International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability)에 이러한 연구결과를 발표했다. 유전자조작 농산물 재배가 만연한 미국·캐나다와 유전자조작 농산물을 재배하지 않는 서부유럽 6개국을 비교했다.

연구팀의 분석 결과를 보면, 유전자조작 농사를 광범위하게 도입한 1986~2011년 미국의 1㏊당 옥수수 평균 생산량은 8284㎏으로 서부유럽의 평균 생산량 8289㎏보다 오히려 더 적었던 것으로 나타났다. 1961~1985년 미국의 생산량이 5437㎏으로 서부유럽보다 570㎏ 더 많았던 것과 뚜렷이 대조된다.

또 캐나다의 1㏊당 유채씨 생산량(1048㎏)은 1961~1985년 서부유럽의 2148㎏보다 1100㎏ 적은 정도에 그쳤으나, 1986~2011년에는 1700㎏ 이상으로 생산량 차이가 벌어졌다. 보고서에서 유전자조작 농산물의 상대적 생산량 감소 원인은 설명하지 않았다.

이와 함께 2007년 프랑스의 제초제 사용량이 1995년보다 6% 줄어든 데 반해 미국의 제초제 사용량은 오히려 8% 더 늘어난 것으로 나타났다. 살충제 사용량도 프랑스는 2007년에 1995년의 24% 수준으로 떨어뜨렸지만, 미국의 감소폭은 85%에 그쳤다. 미국의 유전자조작 재배 비율은 2011년에 콩 94%, 면화 94%, 옥수수 88%에 이른다. 김성훈 전 농림부 장관은 “유전자조작 농사가 단작으로 종의 다양성을 해칠 뿐 아니라 생산성도 낮아, 지속가능하지 않음을 보고서가 시사하고 있다”고 말했다.

김현대 선임기자

[CRS]

Unapproved Genetically Modified Wheat Discovered in Oregon : Status and Implications / CRS (2013. 6. 7)

= 오리건 주에서 발견된 비승인 유전자변형 밀 : 현황 및 영향

요약 : 2013년 5월 31일 미 농무부(USDA)는 오리건 주 동부의 한 농장에서 유전자변형 밀이 발견되었다고 발표하였으나, 농무부 산하 동식물검역국(APHIS)의 조사 결과 시중에는 유통되지 않은 것으로 밝혀짐. 한편, 미국이 한국, 일본, 유럽연합 등에 수출한 밀에 대한 샘플 테스트 결과 유전자조작 밀은 섞여있지 않았으나, 한국과 일본 정부는 오리건 주와 북서태평양 지역산 백맥 수입을 잠정적으로 중단한 상태임. 한편, 발견된 유전자조작 밀은 2001년 몬산토 사가 2001년 오리건 주에서 시험재배를 허가받았으나 상업재배를 포기한 종으로, 해당 밀이 어떤 경로로 오랜 기간 널리 확산되었는지에 대한 의혹이 풀리지 않은 실정임. 이 보고서는 이번 사건의 경위, 연방정부의 유전자변형 농작물 규제, 미국의 밀 수출시장에 미칠 여파 등을 살펴봄.

<관련정보>

· 농업생명공학 : 배경, 규제 및 정책 쟁점 (Agricultural Biotechnology : Background, Regulation, and Policy Issues) / CRS / 2013. 4. 3.

http://www.cq.com/pdf/crsreports-4251581

Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2012

ISAAA Brief 44-2012

http://www.isaaa.org/purchasepublications/itemdescription.asp?ItemType=BRIEFS&Control=IB044-2012

Description: For the first time since the introduction of biotech/GM crops almost two decades ago, developing countries have grown more hectares of biotech crops than industrialized countries, contributing to food security and further alleviating poverty in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions.

Author: Clive James

Published by: ISAAA

Copyright: ISAAA

Correct citation: James, Clive. 2012. Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2012. ISAAA Brief No. 44. ISAAA: Ithaca, NY.

ISBN: 978-1-892456-53-2

ISAAA Brief 44-2012: Contents

Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2012

List of Tables and Figures
Highlights
Executive Summary: A separate supplement to this Brief and accessible at http://www.isaaa.org
Introduction
Global Area of Biotech Crops in 2012
Distribution of Biotech Crops in Industrial and Developing Countries
Distribution of Biotech Crops by Country

USA
Brazil
Argentina
Canada
India
China
Paraguay
South Africa
Pakistan
Uruguay
Bolivia
Philippines
Australia
Burkina Faso
Myanmar
Mexico
Spain
Chile
Colombia
Honduras
Sudan
Portugal
Czech Republic
Cuba
Egypt
Costa Rica
Romania
Slovakia
Poland
European Union
Africa

Distribution of Biotech Crops, by Crop

Biotech Soybean
Biotech Maize
Biotech Cotton
Biotech Canola
Biotech Alfalfa
Other Biotech Crops

Distribution of Biotech Crops, by Trait
Dominant Biotech Crops in 2012
Global Adoption of Biotech Soybean, Maize, Cotton, Canola
The Global Value of the Biotech Crop Market
Global Status of Regulatory Approvals
Drought – The Most Important Constraint To Crop Productivity Globally – A Historical Perspective 
Progress in Achieving and Delivering Drought Tolerance in Maize — an Update
Future Prospects, 2013 to 2015, the MDG year 
Closing Comments
Acknowledgments
References
Appendices

Appendix 1:    Global Crop Protection Market
Appendix 2:    Useful Tables and Charts on the International Seed Trade
Appendix 3:    Deployment of Approved Bt Cotton Events/Hybrids/Variety by Companies/Institutions in India
Appendix 4:    Listing of Events, Bt Cotton Variety and Hybrids in India

==========

ISAAA Brief 44-2012: Executive Summary

Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2012

Biotech Crop hectares increased by an unprecedented 100-fold,
from 1.7 million hectares in 1996, to 170 million hectares in 2012.

Introduction

This Executive Summary focuses on the 2012 biotech crop highlights, which are presented and discussed in detail in ISAAA Brief 44, Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2012, and dedicated to the 1 billion poor and hungry people and their survival.

Biotech crops increase in 2012 for the 17th consecutive year

A record 170.3 million hectares of biotech crops were grown globally in 2012, at an annual growth rate of 6%, up 10.3 million from 160 million hectares in 2011. 2012 was the 17th year of commercialization of biotech crops, 1996-2012, when growth continued after a remarkable 16 consecutive years of increases.

Biotech crops fastest adopted crop technology

2012 marked an unprecedented 100-fold increase in biotech crop hectarage from 1.7 million hectares in 1996 to 170 million hectares in 2012 – this makes biotech crops the fastest adopted crop technology in recent history – the reason – it delivers benefits.

Millions of farmers elect to adopt biotech crops due to benefits they offer

In the period 1996 to 2012, millions of farmers in ~30 countries worldwide, adopted biotech crops at unprecedented rates. The most compelling and credible testimony to biotech crops is that during the 17 year period 1996 to 2012, millions of farmers in ~30 countries worldwide, elected to make more than 100 million independent decisions to plant and replant an accumulated hectarage of more than 1.5 billion hectares – an area 50% larger than the total land mass of the US or China – there is one principal and overwhelming reason that underpins the trust and confidence of risk-averse farmers in biotechnology – biotech crops deliver substantial, and sustainable, socio-economic and environmental benefits. The 2011 study conducted in Europe confirmed that biotech crops are safe.

28 countries grow biotech crops with the top ten each growing more than 1 million hectares

Of the 28 countries which planted biotech crops in 2012, 20 were developing and 8 were industrial countries. This compares with 19 developing and 10 industrial in 2011. Thus there are three times as many developing countries growing biotech crops as there are industrial countries. See a listing of countries and hectarages in Table 1 and Figure 1. The top 10 countries each grew more than 1 million hectares providing a broad-based worldwide foundation for diversified growth in the future; in fact, the top nine each grew more than 2 million hectares. More than half the world’s population, 60% or ~4 billion people, live in the 28 countries planting biotech crops.

Two new countries plant biotech crops and three countries did not offer biotech seed for purchase by farmers.

Two new countries, Sudan (Bt cotton) and Cuba (Bt maize) planted biotech crops for the first time in 2012.  Germany and Sweden could not plant the biotech potato, Amflora because it ceased to be marketed; Poland discontinued planting Bt maize because of regulation inconsistencies in the interpretation of the law on planting approval between the EU and Poland; the EU maintains that all necessary approvals are already in place for planting whereas Poland does not. In 2012, Sudan became the fourth country in Africa, after South Africa, Burkina Faso and Egypt, to commercialize a biotech crop – biotech Bt cotton. A total of 20,000 hectares were planted in both rainfed areas and irrigated schemes. About 10,000 farmers were the initial beneficiaries who have an average of about 1-2.5 hectares of land. In a landmark event Cuba joined the group of countries planting biotech crops in 2012. For the first time, farmers in Cuba grew 3,000 hectares of hybrid Bt maize in a “regulated commercialization” initiative in which farmers seek permission to grow biotech maize commercially. The initiative is part of an ecologically sustainable pesticide-free program featuring biotech maize hybrids and mycorrhizal additives. The Bt maize, with resistance to the major pest, fall armyworm, was developed by the Havana-based Institute for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB).

Over 17 million farmers benefit from biotech crops

In 2012, a record 17.3 million farmers, up 0.6 million from 2011, grew biotech crops – notably, over 90%, or over 15 million, were small resource-poor farmers in developing countries. Farmers are the masters of risk aversion and in 2012, 7.2 million small farmers in China and another 7.2 million small farmers in India, collectively planted a record ~15.0 million hectares of biotech crops. Bt cotton increased the income of farmers significantly by up to US$250 per hectare and also halved the number of insecticide sprays, thus reducing farmer exposure to pesticides.

Developing countries plant more biotech crops than industrial countries

For the first time, developing countries grew more, 52% of global biotech crops in 2012 than industrial countries at 48%. This is contrary to the prediction of critics who, prior to the commercialization of the technology in 1996, prematurely declared that biotech crops were only for industrial countries and would never be accepted and adopted by developing countries. In 2012, the growth rate for biotech crops was at least three times as fast and five times as large in developing countries, at 11% or 8.7 million hectares, versus 3% or 1.6 million hectares in industrial countries. During the period 1996-2011 cumulative economic benefits were high in developing countries at US$49.6 billion compared to US$48.6 billion generated by industrial countries. For 2011 alone, economic benefits for developing countries were higher at US$10.1 billion compared with US$9.6 billion for developed countries for a total of US$19.7 billion.

Stacked traits occupied ~25% of the global 170 million hectares

Stacked traits are an important feature of biotech crops – 13 countries planted biotech crops with two or more traits in 2012. Encouragingly, 10 were developing countries. Around 43.7 million hectares equivalent to 26% of the 170 million hectares were stacked in 2012, up from 42.2 million hectares or 26% of the 160 million hectares in 2011. 

The 5 lead biotech developing countries are China, India, Brazil, Argentina and South Africa – they grew 46% of global biotech crops, and have ~40% of world population

The five lead developing countries in biotech crops are China and India in Asia, Brazil and Argentina in Latin America, and South Africa on the continent of Africa, collectively grew 78.2 million hectares (46% of global) and together represent ~40% of the global population of 7 billion, which could reach 10.1 billion by 2100. Remarkably, Africa alone could escalate from 1 billion today (~15% of global) to a possible high of 3.6 billion (~35% of global) by the end of this century in 2100 – global food security, exacerbated by high and unaffordable food prices, is a formidable challenge to which biotech crops can contribute but are not a panacea.

Brazil, the engine of biotech crop growth

Brazil ranks second only to the USA in biotech crop hectarage in the world, with 36.6 million hectares, and emerging as a global leader in biotech crops. For the fourth consecutive year, Brazil was the engine of growth globally in 2012, increasing its hectarage of biotech crops more than any other country in the world – a record 6.3 million hectare increase, equivalent to an impressive year-over-year increase of 21%. Brazil grows 21% of the global hectarage of 170 million hectares and is consolidating its position by consistently closing the gap with the US. A fast track approval system allows Brazil to approve events in a timely manner. Brazil has already approved the first stacked soybean with insect resistance and herbicide tolerance for commercialization in 2013. Notably, EMBRAPA, a public sector institution, with an annual budget of ~US$1 billion, gained approval to commercialize a home-grown biotech virus resistant bean, (rice and beans are the staples of Latin America) developed entirely with its own resources, thus demonstrating its impressive technical capacity to develop, deliver and deploy a new state-of-the art biotech crop.

USA maintains leadership role and Canada grows record canola hectarage

The US continued to be the lead producer of biotech crops globally with 69.5 million hectares, with an average adoption rate of ~90% across all biotech crops. Canada grew a record 8.4 million hectares of biotech canola at a record adoption rate of 97.5%.

India and China continue to grow more Bt cotton  

India cultivated a record 10.8 million hectares of Bt cotton with an adoption rate of 93%, whilst 7.2 million small resource poor farmers in China grew 4.0 million hectares of Bt cotton with an adoption rate of 80%, cultivating on average, 0.5 hectare per farmer. India enhanced farm income from Bt cotton by US$12.6 billion in the period 2002 to 2011 and US$3.2 billion in 2011 alone.

Progress in Africa

Africa continued to make progress with South Africa increasing its biotech area by a record 0.6 million hectares to reach 2.9 million hectares; Sudan joined South Africa, Burkina Faso and Egypt, to bring the total number of African biotech countries to four. In South Africa the hectarage occupied by biotech crops in 2012 continued to increase for the 15th consecutive season, driven mainly by increased hectarage under maize and soybeans. The estimated total biotech crop area in 2012 was 2.9 million hectares, compared with 2.3 million hectares in 2011/2012, an impressive 26% annual increase in area.

Five EU countries planted a record 129,071 hectares of biotech Bt maize, up 13% from 2011. Spain was by far the largest adopter planting 90% of the total Bt maize hectarage in the EU.

Five EU countries (Spain, Portugal, Czechia, Slovakia and Romania) planted a record 129,071 hectares of biotech Bt maize, a substantial 13% increase over 2011, with Spain growing 90%, equivalent to 116,307 hectares of the total Bt maize hectarage in the EU. Spain had a record adoption rate of 30%. The planned approval in 2014, subject to clearance of a new biotech potato named “Fortuna” resistant to late blight, (the most important disease of potatoes), is potentially an important product, that can meet EU policy and environmental needs to make potato production more sustainable by reducing heavy fungicide applications and decreasing production losses estimated at up to US$1.5 billion annually in the EU alone, and US$7.5 billon worldwide.

Biotech crops contribution to Food Security, Sustainability and Climate Change

From 1996 to 2011, biotech crops contributed to Food Security, Sustainability and Climate Change by: increasing crop production valued at US$98.2 billion; providing a better environment, by saving 473 million kg a.i. of pesticides; in 2011 alone reducing CO2 emissions by 23.1 billion kg, equivalent to taking 10.2 million cars off the road; conserving biodiversity by saving 108.7 million hectares of land; and helped alleviate poverty by helping >15.0 million small farmers, and their families totalling >50 million people,  who are some of the poorest people in the world. Biotech crops are essential but are not a panacea and adherence to good farming practices such as rotations and resistance management, are a must for biotech crops as they are for conventional crops. 

Contribution of biotech crops to Sustainability

Biotech crops are contributing to sustainability in the following five ways:

•     Contributing to food, feed and fiber security and self sufficiency, including more affordable food, by increasing productivity and economic benefits sustainably at the farmer level

      Economic gains at the farm level of ~US$98.2 billion were generated globally by biotech crops during the sixteen year period 1996 to 2011, of which 51% were due to reduced production costs (less ploughing, fewer pesticide sprays and less labor) and 49% due to substantial yield gains of 328 million tons. The corresponding figures for 2011 alone was 78% of the total gain due to increased yield (equivalent to 50.2 million tons), and 22% due to lower cost of production (Brookes and Barfoot, 2013, Forthcoming).

•     Conserving biodiversity, biotech crops are a land saving technology

      Biotech crops are a land-saving technology, capable of higher productivity on the current 1.5 billion hectares of arable land, and thereby can help preclude deforestation and protect biodiversity in forests and in other in-situ biodiversity sanctuaries. Approximately 13 million hectares of biodiversity – rich tropical forests, are lost in developing countries annually. If the 328 million tons of additional food, feed and fiber produced by biotech crops during the period 1996 to 2011 had not been produced by biotech crops, an additional 108.7 million hectares (Brookes and Barfoot, 2013, Forthcoming) of conventional crops would have been required to produce the same tonnage. Some of the additional 108.7 million hectares would probably have required fragile marginal lands, not suitable for crop production, to be ploughed, and for tropical forest, rich in biodiversity, to be felled to make way for slash and burn agriculture in developing countries, thereby destroying biodiversity.

•     Contributing to the alleviation of poverty and hunger

      To-date, biotech cotton in developing countries such as China, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Bolivia, Burkina Faso and South Africa have already made a significant contribution to the income of >15 million small resource-poor farmers in 2012; this can be enhanced significantly in the remaining 3 years of the second decade of commercialization, 2013 to 2015 principally with biotech cotton and maize.

•     Reducing agriculture’s environmental footprint

      Conventional agriculture has impacted significantly on the environment, and biotechnology can be used to reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture. Progress to-date includes: a significant reduction in pesticides; saving on fossil fuels; decreasing CO2 emissions through no/less ploughing; and conserving soil and moisture by optimizing the practice of no till through application of herbicide tolerance. The accumulative reduction in pesticides for the period 1996 to 2011 was estimated at 473 million kilograms (kgs) of active ingredient (a.i.), a saving of 8.9% in pesticides, which is equivalent to an 18.3% reduction in the associated environmental impact of pesticide use on these crops, as measured by the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) – a composite measure based on the various factors contributing to the net environmental impact of an individual active ingredient. The corresponding data for 2011 alone was a reduction of 37 million kgs a.i. (equivalent to a saving of 8.5% in pesticides) and a reduction of 22.8% in EIQ (Brookes and Barfoot, 2013, Forthcoming).

      Increasing efficiency of water usage will have a major impact on conservation and availability of water globally. Seventy percent of fresh water is currently used by agriculture globally, and this is obviously not sustainable in the future as the population increases by almost 30% to over 9 billion by 2050. The first biotech maize hybrids with a degree of drought tolerance are expected to be commercialized by 2013 in the USA, and the first tropical drought tolerant biotech maize is expected by ~2017 for sub-Saharan Africa. Drought tolerance is expected to have a major impact on more sustainable cropping systems worldwide, particularly in developing countries, where drought is more prevalent and severe than industrial countries.

•     Helping mitigate climate change and reducing greenhouse gases

      The important and urgent concerns about the environment have implications for biotech crops, which contribute to a reduction of greenhouse gases and help mitigate climate change in two principal ways. First, permanent savings in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through reduced use of fossil-based fuels, associated with fewer insecticide and herbicide sprays; in 2011, this was an estimated saving of 1.9 billion kg of CO2, equivalent to reducing the number of cars on the roads by 0.8 million. Secondly, additional savings from conservation tillage (need for less or no ploughing facilitated by herbicide tolerant biotech crops) for biotech food, feed and fiber crops, led to an additional soil carbon sequestration equivalent in 2011 to 21.1 billion kg of CO2, or removing 9.4 million cars off the road. Thus in 2011, the combined permanent and additional savings through sequestration was equivalent to a saving of 23 billion kg of CO2 or removing 10.2 million cars from the road (Brookes and Barfoot, 2013, Forthcoming). 

      Droughts, floods, and temperature changes are predicted to become more prevalent and more severe as we face the new challenges associated with climate change, and hence, there will be a need for faster crop improvement programs to develop varieties and hybrids that are well adapted to more rapid changes in climatic conditions. Several biotech crop tools, including tissue culture, diagnostics, genomics, molecular marker-assisted selection (MAS) and biotech crops can be used collectively for ‘speeding the breeding’ and help mitigate the effects of climate change. Biotech crops are already contributing to reducing CO2 emissions by precluding the need for ploughing a significant portion of cropped land, conserving soil, and particularly moisture, and reducing pesticide spraying as well as sequestering CO2.

In summary, collectively the above five thrusts have already demonstrated the capacity of biotech crops to contribute to sustainability in a significant manner and for mitigating the formidable challenges associated with climate change and global warming; and the potential for the future is enormous. Biotech crops can increase productivity and income significantly, and hence, can serve as an engine of rural economic growth that can contribute to the alleviation of poverty for the world’s small and resource-poor farmers.

Regulation of biotech crops

The lack of appropriate, science-based and cost/time-effective regulatory systems continues to be the major constraint to adoption. Responsible, rigorous but not onerous, regulation is needed for small and poor developing countries. It is noteworthy, that on 6 November 2012, in California, USA, voters defeated Proposition 37, the proposed state petition on “Mandatory Labeling of Genetically Engineered Food Initiative” – the final result was No 53.7% and Yes 46.3%.

Status of approved events for biotech crops

While 28 countries planted commercialized biotech crops in 2012, an additional 31 countries totalling 59 have granted regulatory approvals for biotech crops for import, food and feed use and for release into the environment since 1996. A total of 2,497 regulatory approvals involving 25 GM crops and 319 GM events have been issued by competent authorities in 59 countries, of which 1,129 are for food use (direct use or processing), 813 are for feed use (direct use or processing) and 555 are for planting or release into the environment. Of the 59 countries with regulatory approvals, USA has the most number of events approved (196), followed by Japan (182), Canada (131), Mexico (122), Australia (92), South Korea (86), New Zealand (81), European Union (67 including approvals that have expired or under renewal process), Philippines (64), Taiwan (52) and South Africa (49). Maize has the most number of approved events (121 events in 23 countries), followed by cotton (48 events in 19 countries), potato (31 events in 10 countries), canola (30 events in 12 countries) and soybean (22 events in 24 countries). The event that has received the most number of regulatory approvals is the herbicide tolerant maize event NK603 (50 approvals in 22 countries + EU-27), followed by the herbicide tolerant soybean event GTS-40-3-2 (48 approvals in 24 countries + EU-27), insect resistant maize event MON810 (47 approvals in 22 countries + EU-27), insect resistant maize event Bt11 (43 approvals in 20 countries + EU-27), insect resistant cotton event MON531 (36 approvals in 17 countries + EU-27) and insect resistant cotton event MON1445 (31 approvals in 14 countries + EU-27).

Global value of biotech seed alone was ~US$15 billion in 2012

Global value of biotech seed alone was ~US$15 billion in 2012. A 2011 study estimated that the cost of discovery, development and authorization of a new biotech crop/trait is ~US$135 million. In 2012, the global market value of biotech crops, estimated by Cropnosis, was US$14.84 billion, (up from US$13.35 billion in 2011); this represents 23% of the US$64.62 billion global crop protection market in 2012, and 35% of the ~US$34 billion commercial seed market. The estimated global farm-gate revenues of the harvested commercial “end product” (the biotech grain and other harvested products) is more than ten times greater than the value of the biotech seed alone.

Future Prospects

Future prospects up to the MDG year of 2015 and beyond look encouraging. Several new developing countries are expected to plant biotech crops before 2015 led by Asia, and there is cautious optimism that Africa will be well-represented: the first biotech based drought tolerant maize planned for release in North America in 2013 and in Africa by ~2017; the first stacked soybean tolerant to herbicide and insect resistant will be planted in Brazil in 2013; subject to regulatory approval, Golden Rice could be released in the Philippines in 2013/2014; drought tolerant sugarcane is a possible candidate in Indonesia, and biotech maize in China with a potential of ~30 million hectares and for the future biotech rice which has an enormous potential to benefit up to 1 billion poor people in rice households in Asia alone. Biotech crops, whilst not a panacea, have the potential to make a substantial contribution to the 2015 MDG goal of cutting poverty in half, by optimizing crop productivity, which can be expedited by public-private sector partnerships, such as the WEMA project, supported in poor developing countries by the new generation of philanthropic foundations, such as the Gates and Buffet foundations. Observers are cautiously optimistic about the future with more modest annual gains predicted because of the already high rate of adoption in all the principal crops in mature markets in both developing and industrial countries.

Drought in the USA in 2012

The worst drought in 50 years impacted on crop production in the USA in 2012. The drought was estimated to have affected 26 of the 52 states, and covered at least 55% of the land area of the USA, which is almost 1 billion hectares. In comparison, the more severe Dust Bowl drought of 1934 covered almost 80% of the US land area. By the end of July 2012, drought and extreme heat had affected more than 1,000 counties in 29 states and they were designated natural disaster counties by USDA. As of July 2012, compared with the average year, 38% of the US maize crop had already been rated as poor and similarly 30% of soybean was rated poor. Given that the maize crop is the most important in the US valued at US$76.5 billion in 2011, losses for 2012 are expected to be substantial. The drought in Texas alone in 2011 was estimated to have cost US$7.6 billion and final losses for the drought of 2012 are likely to be much higher. Since US maize and US soybean exports represent 53% and 43% of global maize and soybean exports, respectively, the impact of the 2012 drought on international prices are likely to be significant. There is some comfort in the fact that global rice and wheat supplies were relatively plentiful in 2012 and the hope is that they will preclude a broad escalation of commodity prices as was the case in mid-2008. Maize is more vulnerable than soybean to price escalation because the shortfall in maize production could be exacerbated by the demand for maize for biofuel production in the US.

Some preliminary advance estimates in July 2012 suggested that losses in the US soybean and maize area affected by drought could be as high as 30%, but reliable estimates will not be available until later. Some of the most recent estimates indicate that compared with 2011 yields the average for 2012 will be 21% less for maize and 12% less for soybeans. Preliminary estimates by USDA suggested that the 2012 drought would result in increases in food prices of 3 to 4% in 2013, with beef prices increasing by 4 to 5%. 

First biotech drought tolerant maize to be deployed in the US in 2013

Drought tolerance conferred through biotech crops is viewed as the most important trait that will be commercialized in the second decade of commercialization, 2006 to 2015, and beyond, because it is, by far, the single most important constraint to increased productivity for crops worldwide. The first and most advanced drought tolerant biotech/transgenic maize, will be launched commercially by Monsanto in the USA in 2013. Notably, the same technology, has been donated by the technology developers, Monsanto and BASF, to a Private/Public sector partnership (WEMA) which hopes to release the first biotech drought tolerant maize as early as 2017 in sub-Saharan Africa where the need for drought tolerance is greatest.

Global review of drought tolerance

Given the pivotal importance of drought tolerance, ISAAA invited Dr. Greg O. Edmeades, former leader of the maize drought program at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), to contribute a timely global overview on the status of drought tolerance in maize, in both conventional and biotech approaches, in the private and public sector, and to discuss future prospects in the near, mid and long term. The contribution by Dr. Edmeades, “Progress in Achieving and Delivering Drought Tolerance in Maize — An Update”, supported by key references, is included as a chapter in the full version of Brief 44, as well as an introductory chapter on drought to highlight the enormous global importance of the drought tolerance trait, which virtually no crop or farmer in the world can afford to be without.

=================

ISAAA Brief 44-2012: Highlights

Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2012
By Clive James, Founder and Chair of ISAAA

Dedicated by the author to the 1 billion poor and hungry people, and their survival

Biotech Crop hectares increased by an unprecedented 100-fold from
1.7 million hectares in 1996, to 170 million hectares in 2012

A record 170.3 million hectares of biotech crops were grown globally in 2012, at an annual growth rate of 6%, up 10.3 million from 160 million hectares in 2011.

2012 marked an unprecedented 100-fold increase in biotech crop hectarage from 1.7 million hectares in 1996 to 170 million hectares in 2012 – this  makes biotech crops the fastest adopted crop technology in recent history – the reason – they deliver benefits.

In the period 1996 to 2012, millions of farmers in ~30 countries worldwide, made more than 100 million independent decisions to plant an accumulated hectarage of more than 1.5 billion hectares – 50% more than the land mass of the US or China; this demonstrates the trust and confidence of millions of risk-averse farmers in biotech crops which deliver sustainable and substantial, socioeconomic and environmental benefits.

Two new countries, Sudan (Bt cotton) and Cuba (Bt maize) planted for the first time in 2012. Germany and Sweden could not plant the potato “Amflora” because it ceased to be marketed; Poland discontinued planting Bt maize because of regulation constraints.

Of the 28 countries which planted biotech crops in 2012, 20 were developing and 8 were industrial countries; this compares with 19 developing and 10 industrial in 2011.  

In 2012, a record 17.3 million farmers, up 0.6 million from 2011, grew biotech crops – remarkably over 90%, or over 15 million, were small resource-poor farmers in developing countries. Farmers are the masters of risk aversion and in 2012, a record 7.2 million small farmers in China and another 7.2 million in India, elected to plant almost 15 million hectares of Bt cotton, because of the significant benefits it offers. 

For the first time, developing countries grew more, 52%, of global biotech crops in 2012 than industrial countries at 48%. In 2012, growth rate for biotech crops was at least three times as fast, and five times as large in developing countries, at 11% or 8.7 million hectares, versus 3% or 1.6 million hectares in industrial countries.  

Stacked traits are an important feature – 13 countries planted biotech crops with two or more traits in 2012, and encouragingly, 10 of the 13 were developing countries – 43.7 million hectares, or more than a quarter, of the 170 million hectares were stacked in 2012.

Brazil, for the fourth consecutive year, was the engine of growth globally, increasing its hectarage of biotech crops more than any other country – an impressive record increase of 6.3 million hectares, up 21% from 2011, reaching 36.6 million hectares.

The US continued to be the lead country with 69.5 million hectares, with an average 90% adoption across all crops. Impact of US 2012 drought for maize was 21% loss in productivity and in soybean,12%. Canada had a record 8.4 million hectares of canola at a record 97.5% adoption.     

India grew a record 10.8 million hectares of Bt cotton with an adoption rate of 93%, whilst 7.2 million small resource-poor farmers in China grew 4.0 million hectares of Bt cotton with an adoption rate of 80%, cultivating on average 0.5 hectare per farmer. India enhanced farm income from Bt cotton by US$12.6 billion in the period 2002 to 2011 and US$3.2 billion in 2011 alone.     

Africa continued to make progress with South Africa increasing its biotech area by a record 0.6 million hectares to reach 2.9 million hectares; Sudan joined South Africa, Burkina Faso and Egypt, to bring the total number of African biotech countries to four. 

Five EU countries planted a record 129,071 hectares of biotech Bt maize, up 13% from 2011. Spain led the EU with 116,307 hectares of Bt maize, up 20% from 2011.

From 1996 to 2011, biotech crops contributed to Food Security, Sustainability and Climate Change by: increasing crop production valued at US$98.2 billion; providing a better environment, by saving 473 million kg a.i. of pesticides; in 2011 alone reducing CO2 emissions by 23.1 billion kg, equivalent to taking 10.2 million cars off the road; conserving biodiversity by saving 108.7 million hectares of land; and helped alleviate poverty by helping >15.0 million small farmers and their families totalling >50 million people, who are some of the poorest people in the world. Biotech crops are essential but are not a panacea and adherence to good farming practices such as rotations and resistance management, are a must for biotech crops as they are for conventional crops.

The lack of appropriate, science-based and cost/time-effective regulatory systems continue to be the major constraint to adoption. Responsible, rigorous but not onerous, regulation is needed for small and poor developing countries.

Global value of biotech seed alone was valued at ~US$15 billion in 2012.

Future Prospects – cautiously optimistic with more modest annual gains predicted because of the already high rate of adoption in all the principal crops in mature markets in both developing and industrial countries.

T Kageyama^1,2, S Fujisaki^1,2, E Takashita¹, H Xu¹, S Yamada³, Y Uchida⁴, G Neumann⁵, T Saito^4,6, Y Kawaoka^3,5,7,8, M Tashiro ()¹

1. Influenza Virus Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
   
2. These authors contributed equally to this work
   
3. Division of Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Medical Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
   
4. Influenza and Prion Disease Research Center, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Ibaraki, Japan
   
5. Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, United States
   
6. The United Graduate School of Veterinary Sciences, Gifu University, Gifu, Japan
   
7. ERATO Infection-Induced Host Responses Project, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan
   
8. Department of Special Pathogens, International Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Institute of Medical Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

H7N9 genetic analysis raises concern over pandemic potential

Lisa Schnirring  Staff Writer

Apr 12, 2013 (CIDRAP News) – A new analysis of H7N9 genetic sequences from the first Chinese patients infected with the virus and from poultry markets found more signals that the virus can attach and replicate efficiently in the airways of humans and other mammals, raising concerns about the virus’s pandemic potential.

The new findings, published late yesterday in Eurosurveillance, are the first detailed comparison of both the human and market sequences. Results are similar to the genetic details of samples from the first three cases reported by Chinese scientists yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The new results also affirm early observations from some experts that the novel virus has adapted to infect mammals, yielding more information that health officials need to gauge the pandemic threat from the new virus.

The research team from Japan includes Yoshihiro Kawaoka, DVM, PhD, who heads a group at the University of Wisconsin that has done extensive genetic studies on the H5N1 virus, and Masato Tashiro, MD, PhD, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Reference and Research on Influenza at Japan’s National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Tokyo.

Their look at sequences from influenza databases included human samples from the first two patients from Shanghai, as well as from a woman from Anhui province and a man from Hangzhou province. All of the patients died.

Samples from a market in Shanghai include isolates from a pigeon, a chicken, and an environmental sample.

Phylogenetic analysis of the four human samples suggest they have a common ancestor, with the hemagglutinin (HA) gene part of the Eurasian avian influenza lineage and closely resembling HA genes of low-pathogenic H7N3 viruses detected in 2011 in Zhejiang province, south of Shanghai. The group reported that the neuraminidase (NA) gene closely resembles a low-pathogenic H11N9 virus found in the Czech Republic in 2010.

Internal genes of the H7N9 virus were closely related to H9N2 avian flu viruses that recently circulated in poultry in Shanghai, as well as Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, according to the report. Researchers said the findings strongly suggest that the new viruses are reassortants that got their HA and NA genes (the H7 and N9) from avian influenza viruses and the rest of their genes from recent H9N2 poultry viruses.

When they compared the nucleotides from the four human specimens, they found that one of the Shanghai samples and the ones from Anhui and Hangzhou were 99% similar, despite the fact that they came from cities that were several hundred kilometers apart. They found differences between the two Shanghai samples and noted other patterns with the human and market samples that suggest five of the viruses came from a closely related infection source, while one of the Shanghai samples and the one from the pigeon came from different sources.

The Japan group’s findings appear to echo the report from Chinese researchers yesterday that there have been at least two introductions into humans.

The Japanese researchers also detected mutations increase binding to human receptors, a key marker health officials use to gauge the infectivity of new flu viruses. They found that the two Shanghai strains and the Anhui strain had mutations that increase the binding of H5 and N7 viruses to human-type receptors.

One was the Q226L mutation, also flagged by Chinese researchers yesterday. It has been linked to the spread of respiratory droplets in ferrets and was a finding in two controversial studies—one by Kawaoka’s group—in 2012 involving lab-modified H5N1 strains.

“The finding of mammalian-adapting mutations in the RBS [receptor-binding site] of these novel viruses is cause for concern,” the investigators wrote.

The isolate from the Hangzhou patient had a genetic marker (isoleucine at position 226) found in seasonal H3N2 flu viruses.

All seven of the viruses had an HA substitution seen in other recently circulating H7 viruses that has been linked to increased binding to human-type receptors, according to the report.

In the polymerase PB2 protein, they found a marker in the human samples that is essential for efficient replication and has been seen in H5N1 viruses and in an H7N7 sample that was isolated from a fatal case in the Netherlands in 2003.

When they looked for mutations that influence sensitivity to antiviral medications, they projected that all of the human H7N9 samples should be sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors, except for one of the Shanghai samples. The exception has a R294K mutation in the NA protein that has been linked to resistance in N2 and N9 flu subtypes, which is concerning, the team wrote.

Neuraminidase inhibitors are the most common types of flu antiviral drugs prescribed and include oseltamivir (Tamflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).

Researchers also found some virulence markers, including one at the NA stalk and the other in the PB1-F2 protein; however, they said the human sequences so far lack the N66S mutation that was associated with increased pathogenicity of the 1918 pandemic virus and the H5N1 virus.

The mutation they saw at the NA stalk can occur when the virus adapts to terrestrial birds, which suggests the novel H7N9 virus or their ancestors may have circulated in terrestrial birds before infecting humans. So far, the host of the virus has not been identified, and health officials are considering a range of animals.

The H7N9 virus sequences also showed an NS1 protein sequence pattern that might attenuate the viruses in mammals.

Taken together, the findings present a somewhat clearer picture of the threat the new virus could pose, the group concluded.

“These viruses possess several characteristic features of mammalian influenza viruses, which are likely to contribute to their ability to infect humans and raise concerns regarding their pandemic potential,” they wrote.

Kageyama T, Fujisaki S, Takashita E, at al. Genetic analysis of novel avian influenza A (H7N9) influenza viruses isolated from patients in China, February to April 2013. Eurosurveill 2013 Apr 11;18(15) [Full text]

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日研究称H7N9病毒有易感染哺乳类动物的特征

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