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[돼지독감] 미 질병관리본부 신종플루 공식통계 및 추정통계

건강과대안 — Sat, 16 Jan 2010 19:03:28 +0000

[미 질병관리본부 신종플루 공식 통계]

입원 환자 : 38,455명
사망 환자 : 1,779명

[미 질병관리본부 신종플루 추정 통계]

신종플루 추정 감염자 : 3천9백만명~8천만명 (평균 5천5백만명)
신종플루 추정 입원자 : 17만3천명~36만2천명(평균 24만6천명)
신종플루 추정 사망자 : 7천8백80명~1만6천4백60명(평균 1만1천1백60명)

*** 미국에서 계절성 독감으로 인한 사망자가 연평균 3만6천명라는 사실을 염두에 두고 평가를 해보면…

공식 통계로 잡힌 신종플루 사망자는 계절성 독감 사망자의 1/20에 불과하다. 추정사망자 통계를 가지고 관대하게 평가하다고 하더라도 신종플루 사망자는 계절성 독감 사망자의 1/3에 불과했다는 점을 확인할 수 있다.

참고로 현재까지 신종플루로 사망한 사람은 전세계적으로 13,000~15,000명 정도로 집계되고 있고… 추정 사망자로 높게 잡는다고 하더라도 10만명~15만명 수준을 넘지 않을 것으로 보인다.

그런데 해마다 전세계적으로 계절성 독감으로 사망하는 사람이 25만~50만명으로 추정된다.

따라서 미국 질병관리본부(CDC)의 통계에 따른 계절성 독감 사망자와 비교해본 수치와 세계보건기구(WHO) 또는 유럽연합질병관리본부(ECDC)의 통계에 따른 계절성 독감 사망자와 비교해본 수치의 비율이 거의 비슷하다.(미국에서 신종플루 사망자와 계절성 독감 사망자의 비율은 전세계 신종플루 사망자와 전세계 계절성 독감 사망자의 비율과 비슷하다.)

따라서 2009 신종플루 대유행 선언은 지나치게 과장되었음을 확인할 수 있다. 객관적으로 봤을 때, 2009 신종플루는 대유행 인플루엔자라기 보다는 돼지독감 바이러스가 인간에게 전염된 약간 특이한 형태(전염율은 일반 계절성 독감보다 높으나 치명율은 계절성 독감보다 훨씬 낮으며, 65세 이하의 젊은층에게 더 피해를 끼쳤음. 국내에서는 특이하게 65세 이상의 기저질환자의 사망이 압도적으로 많았음.)의 계절성 독감 바이러스라고 생각한다.

=========================

CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Cases and Related Hospitalizations and Deaths from April-December 12, 2009, By Age Group

2009 H1N1	Mid-Level Range*	Estimated Range *
Cases
0-17 years	~18 million	~12 million to ~26 million
18-64 years	~32 million	~23 million to ~47 million
65 years and older	~5 million	~4 million to ~7 million
Cases Total	~55 million	~39 million to ~80 million
Hospitalizations
0-17 years	~78,000	~55,000 to ~115,000
18-64 years	~145,000	~102,000 to ~213,000
65 years and older	~23,000	~16,000 to ~34,000
Hospitalizations Total	~246,000	~173,000 to ~362,000
Deaths
0-17 years	~1,180	~830 to ~1,730
18-64 years	~8,620	~6,090 to ~12, 720
65 years and older	~1,360	~960 to ~2,010
Deaths Total	~11,160	~7,880 to ~16,460

(출처 : http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm)

Percentage of Visits for Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Reported by the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet), National Summary 2008-2009 and Previous Two Seasons

출처 : 미 질병관리본부 (Posted January 15, 2010, 5:00 PM ET, for Week Ending January 8, 2010)
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/#iligraph

**PERCENTAGE OF VISITS FOR INFLUENZA-LIKE-ILLNESS REPORTED BY SENTINEL PROVIDERS 2009-2010**
Week	Age 0-4	Age 5-24	Age 25-64	Age 25-49	Age 50-64	Age over 64	Total ILI	Total Patients	% Unweighted ILI	% Weighted ILI
35	3712	12930	3851	x	x	425	20918	612507	3.41514464324489	3.4732640676835
36	4082	13326	4477	x	x	514	22399	602176	3.71967663938782	4.06321953907124
37	4481	15359	5668	x	x	650	26158	688867	3.79724968680456	4.24531323184887
38	4503	14082	5186	x	x	582	24353	653067	3.72902014647808	4.17942338153808
39	5040	16405	6085	x	x	568	28098	655255	4.28810157877468	4.89294937942399
40	8950	26138	x	8051	2126	872	46137	805069	5.73081313527164	6.16663957444425
41	10846	30233	x	9449	2585	1001	54114	811607	6.66751272475472	7.09287934696687
42	12274	36618	x	11285	2781	1004	63962	851344	7.51306170008833	7.71641644615004
43	12388	34425	x	11137	2841	1044	61835	839902	7.36216844346126	7.60255809880468
44	11109	28187	x	9154	2411	1018	51879	820196	6.32519544108969	6.7689366829816
45	9367	18745	x	7151	2042	857	38162	746318	5.11336990398195	5.49631201112116
46	6658	11126	x	4782	1348	622	24536	627837	3.90802071238235	4.25024554240254

x = Age group not used that week

Laboratory Confirmed Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 2009 to January 9, 2010

Posted January 15, 2010, 11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by January 12, 2010, 12:00 AM ET

Cases Defined by	Hospitalizations	Deaths
Influenza Laboratory-Tests**	38,455	1,779
Reports can be based on syndromic, admission or discharge data, or a combination of data elements that could include laboratory-confirmed and influenza-like illness hospitalizations. Laboratory confirmation includes any positive influenza test (rapid influenza tests, RT-PCR, DFA, IFA, or culture), whether or not typing was done. The table shows aggregate reports of all laboratory confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths (including 2009 H1N1 and seasonal flu) since August 30, 2009 received by CDC from U.S. states and territories. This table will be updated weekly each Friday at 11 a.m. For the 2009-2010 influenza season, states are reporting based on new case definitions for hospitalizations and deaths effective August 30, 2009. CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-2010 influenza season. For more information about influenza surveillance, including reporting of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, see Questions and Answers: Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1. The number of 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC from April – August 2009 is available on the Past Situation Updates page. For state level information, refer to state health departments. International Human Cases of 2009 H1N1 Flu Infection See: World Health Organization. States report weekly to CDC either 1) laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths or 2) pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based cases of hospitalization and death resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza. Although only the laboratory confirmed cases are included in this report, CDC continues to analyze data both from laboratory confirmed and syndromic hospitalizations and deaths.

Cases Defined by

Hospitalizations

Deaths

Influenza Laboratory-Tests**

38,455

1,779

*Reports can be based on syndromic, admission or discharge data, or a combination of data elements that could include laboratory-confirmed and influenza-like illness hospitalizations.

*Laboratory confirmation includes any positive influenza test (rapid influenza tests, RT-PCR, DFA, IFA, or culture), whether or not typing was done.

The table shows aggregate reports of all laboratory confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths (including 2009 H1N1 and seasonal flu) since August 30, 2009 received by CDC from U.S. states and territories**. This table will be updated weekly each Friday at 11 a.m. For the 2009-2010 influenza season, states are reporting based on new case definitions for hospitalizations and deaths effective August 30, 2009.

CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-2010 influenza season. For more information about influenza surveillance, including reporting of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, see Questions and Answers: Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1.

The number of 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC from April – August 2009 is available on the Past Situation Updates page.

For state level information, refer to state health departments.

International Human Cases of 2009 H1N1 Flu Infection
See: World Health Organization.

**States report weekly to CDC either 1) laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths or 2) pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based cases of hospitalization and death resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza. Although only the laboratory confirmed cases are included in this report, CDC continues to analyze data both from laboratory confirmed and syndromic hospitalizations and deaths.

U.S. Influenza-associated Pediatric Mortality
Posted January 15, 2010 (Updated Weekly)
Data reported to CDC by January 9, 2010
Date Reported	Laboratory-Confirmed 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pediatric Deaths	Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza A Subtype Unknown Pediatric Deaths	Laboratory-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza	Total
This Week (Week 1, January 3, 2009 to January 9, 2010)	6	1	0	7
Since August 30, 2009	195	40	1	236
Cumulative since April 26, 2009	255	43	2	300
This table is based on data reported to CDC through the Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System. Influenza-associated deaths in children (persons less than 18 years) was added as nationally notifiable condition in 2004. For more information about influenza-associated pediatric mortality, see FluView.

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CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths in the United States, April – December 12, 2009

출처 : 미 질병관리본부, January 15, 2010 1:00 PM ET
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates_2009_h1n1.htm

[돼지독감] 2009 H1N1 Flu U.S. Situation

건강과대안 — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:49:18 +0000

2009 H1N1 Flu U.S. Situation Update
November 6, 2009, 4:30 PM ET

출처 : http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

U.S. Laboratory Confirmed Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations
and Deaths from August 30 to October 31, 2009
Posted November 6, 2009, 12:30 PM ET
Data reported to CDC by November 3, 2009, 12:00 AM ET
Cases Defined by	Hospitalizations	Deaths
Influenza Laboratory-Tests**	17,838	672
Reports can be based on syndromic, admission or discharge data, or a combination of data elements that could include laboratory-confirmed and influenza-like illness hospitalizations. Laboratory confirmation includes any positive influenza test (rapid influenza tests, RT-PCR, DFA, IFA, or culture), whether or not typing was done. The table shows aggregate reports of all laboratory confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths (including 2009 H1N1 and seasonal flu) since August 30, 2009 received by CDC from U.S. states and territories. This table will be updated weekly each Friday at 11 a.m. For the 2009-2010 influenza season, states are reporting based on new case definitions for hospitalizations and deaths effective August 30, 2009. CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-2010 influenza season. For more information about influenza surveillance, including reporting of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, see Questions and Answers: Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1. The number of 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths reported to CDC from April – August 2009 is available on the Past Situation Updates page. For state level information, refer to state health departments. International Human Cases of 2009 H1N1 Flu Infection See: World Health Organization. States report weekly to CDC either 1) laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths or 2) pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based cases of hospitalization and death resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza. Although only the laboratory confirmed cases are included in this report, CDC continues to analyze data both from laboratory confirmed and syndromic hospitalizations and deaths.

U.S. Influenza-associated Pediatric Mortality
Posted November 6, 2009 (Updated each Friday)
Data reported to CDC by October 31, 2009
Date Reported	Laboratory-Confirmed 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pediatric Deaths	Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza A Subtype Unknown Pediatric Deaths	Laboratory-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza	Total
This Week (Week 43, Oct. 25-31)	15	3	0	18
Since August 30, 2009	73	12	0	85
Cumulative since April 26, 2009	129	15	1	145
This table is based on data reported to CDC through the Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System. Influenza-associated deaths in children (persons less than 18 years) was added as nationally notifiable condition in 2004. For more information about influenza-associated pediatric mortality, see FluView.

[돼지독감] 현재까지 미국 어린이 76명 신종플루로 사망

건강과대안 — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 11:42:55 +0000

미국 질병관리본부(CDC)는 현재까지 신종플루(돼지독감 바이러스)에 감염되어 사망한 어린이가 모두 76명에 이른다고 밝혔습니다.

해마다 미국에서 계절성 독감으로 사망하는 어린이는 46명~88명입니다. 따라서 신종플루(돼지독감 바이러스에 감염되어 사망한 어린이의 숫자가 계절성 독감보다 헐씬 높다고 볼 수 있습니다.

===============================================

CDC: 76 children dead of swine flu as cases rise

By MIKE STOBBE, AP Medical Writer Mike Stobbe, Ap Medical Writer – Sat Oct 10, 6:41 am ET

ATLANTA – Health officials said Friday that 76 U.S. children have died of swine flu, including 19 new reports in the past week — more evidence the new virus is unusually dangerous for the young.

The regular flu kills between 46 and 88 children a year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That suggests deaths from the new H1N1 virus could dramatically outpace children’s deaths from seasonal flu, if swine flu continues to spread as it has.

CDC officials say 10 more states, a total of 37, now have widespread swine flu. A week ago, reports suggested that cases might be leveling off and even falling in some areas of the country, but that did not turn out to be an enduring national trend.

“We are seeing more illness, more hospitalizations, and more deaths,” the CDC’s Dr. Anne Schuchat said at a press conference Friday.

The new virus, first identified in April, is a global epidemic. The CDC doesn’t have an exact count of all swine flu deaths and hospitalizations, but existing reports suggest more than 600 have died and more than 9,000 have been hospitalized. Health officials believe millions of Americans have caught the virus.

The virus is hitting young people harder. Experts believe older people are suffering from it less, perhaps because they have a bit of immunity from exposure over the years to somewhat similar viruses.

Most healthy children recover and often suffer only mild symptoms. But some have died from it, often from a second infection that moves in while the body is weakened from the flu.

Kids with asthma or chronic heart or respiratory conditions also are at greater risk for serious complications.

Experts say it’s important for parents to watch their children’s symptoms carefully. If a child appears to get better, but fever and a cough return, there may be a second infection. Other trouble signs are rapid or difficult breathing or bluish skin color.

Vaccinations against swine flu began this week and so far, states have ordered 3.7 million doses. Demand is exceeding supply, and people seeking the vaccination should ask their state or local health department where to go, said Schuchat, who heads the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

Health officials also said more data is trickling in from several clinical trials of the new vaccine, and so far no serious side effects have been reported.

Preliminary results from one study indicate that both a seasonal flu shot and a swine flu shot are effective when given during the same doctor’s office visit. However, the government is not recommending that people get the nasal spray versions of the seasonal and swine flu vaccines at the same time.

The nasal sprays contain weakened, live virus, and the government doesn’t have data on how a person’s immune system would react to exposure to both at once, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

건강과 대안 » 미 질병관리본부

[돼지독감] 미 질병관리본부 신종플루 공식통계 및 추정통계

[돼지독감] 2009 H1N1 Flu U.S. Situation

2009 H1N1 Flu U.S. Situation UpdateNovember 6, 2009, 4:30 PM ET

[돼지독감] 현재까지 미국 어린이 76명 신종플루로 사망

2009 H1N1 Flu U.S. Situation Update
November 6, 2009, 4:30 PM ET