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	<title>건강과 대안 &#187; 당뇨</title>
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		<title>[건강수명] 술 11개월, 담배 9.4개월 장애보정수명 감소시켜</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Jun 2013 12:06:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[노동 · 환경]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[건강수명]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[건강측정평가연구소(IHME)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[고혈압]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당뇨]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[비만]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[스트레스]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[운동부족]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[음주]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[잘못된 식습관]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[장애보정수명(DALY)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[환경오염]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[흡연]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation: IHME (건강영향측정평가연구소) www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/ 시애틀 소재 워싱턴대학교 부설 연구소. 2011년 건강영향측정평가연구소(IHME)에서 펴낸 보고서에서 &#8220;미국은 1인당 보건의료에 투자하는 비용이 어느 나라보다도 높지만 평균 예상 [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><A href="http://www.google.co.kr/url?q=http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/&#038;sa=U&#038;ei=FWTCUdbUFseOlQX46oCIBQ&#038;ved=0CBsQFjAA&#038;sig2=QcR-_JLDSXZ4g_kOTH-FSw&#038;usg=AFQjCNGQKPnHIUKvYnE_1ENSO50UmheClw" target=_blank><FONT size=3><FONT color=#6611cc><B>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation</B>: <B>IHME</B></FONT></FONT></A> (건강영향측정평가연구소)<br />
<DIV class=s><br />
<DIV class=kv style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 2px"><CITE><FONT color=#009933>www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/</FONT></CITE><SPAN class=flc> <BR><BR>시애틀 소재 워싱턴대학교 부설 연구소. 2011년 건강영향측정평가연구소(IHME)에서 펴낸 보고서에서 &#8220;<FONT size=2>미국은 1인당 보건의료에 투자하는 비용이 어느 나라보다도 높지만 평균 예상 수명은 30위권 이하인 것&#8221;으로 나타났으며, &nbsp;2008년 기준으로 미국의 보건의료 지출은 2조3000억달러 이상이며 1인당 7681달러를 쓴 것으로 조사된 바 있다. <BR></FONT><BR>*&nbsp;Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) 장애보정수명<BR><A href="http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/metrics_daly/en/">http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/metrics_daly/en/</A><BR><BR>[참고] Life, Not Death, is Focus of New Health Metrics<BR><A href="http://discovermagazine.com/2013/julyaug/18-international-health-metric-measures-years-lost">http://discovermagazine.com/2013/julyaug/18-international-health-metric-measures-years-lost</A><BR><BR>Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010<BR><BR>The Lancet, <A class=article-hdr-link href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/issue/vol380no9859/PIIS0140-6736(12)X6053-7" cmImpressionSent="1">Volume 380, Issue 9859</A>, Pages 2197 &#8211; 2223, 15 December 2012<BR><A href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract">http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract</A><BR><BR><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Christopher J L Murray'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Christopher J L+Murray" cmImpressionSent="1">Christopher J L Murray</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn2" name=back-fn2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>†</SPAN></A><A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn3" name=back-fn3 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>‡</SPAN></A><A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#cor1" name=back-cor1 cmImpressionSent="1"><IMG alt="Corresponding Author" src="http://www.thelancet.com/images/article_notepad.gif" border=0></IMG></A><A class=ja50-ce-e-address href="mailto:cjlm@uw.edu" cmImpressionSent="1"><IMG alt="Email Address" src="http://www.thelancet.com/images/article_email.gif" border=0></IMG></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Theo Vos'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Theo+Vos" cmImpressionSent="1">Theo Vos</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff2" name=back-aff2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>b</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rafael Lozano'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rafael+Lozano" cmImpressionSent="1">Rafael Lozano</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mohsen Naghavi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mohsen+Naghavi" cmImpressionSent="1">Mohsen Naghavi</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Abraham D Flaxman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Abraham D+Flaxman" cmImpressionSent="1">Abraham D Flaxman</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Catherine Michaud'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Catherine+Michaud" cmImpressionSent="1">Catherine Michaud</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff10" name=back-aff10 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>j</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Majid Ezzati'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Majid+Ezzati" cmImpressionSent="1">Majid Ezzati</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff11" name=back-aff11 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>k</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kenji Shibuya'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kenji+Shibuya" cmImpressionSent="1">Kenji Shibuya</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff13" name=back-aff13 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>m</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Joshua A Salomon'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Joshua A+Salomon" cmImpressionSent="1">Joshua A Salomon</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Safa Abdalla'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Safa+Abdalla" cmImpressionSent="1">Safa Abdalla</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff22" name=back-aff22 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>v</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Victor Aboyans'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Victor+Aboyans" cmImpressionSent="1">Victor Aboyans</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff23" name=back-aff23 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>w</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jerry Abraham'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jerry+Abraham" cmImpressionSent="1">Jerry Abraham</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff24" name=back-aff24 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>x</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ilana Ackerman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ilana+Ackerman" cmImpressionSent="1">Ilana Ackerman</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff29" name=back-aff29 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ac</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rakesh Aggarwal'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rakesh+Aggarwal" cmImpressionSent="1">Rakesh Aggarwal</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff30" name=back-aff30 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ad</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Stephanie Y Ahn'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Stephanie Y+Ahn" cmImpressionSent="1">Stephanie Y Ahn</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mohammed K Ali'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mohammed K+Ali" cmImpressionSent="1">Mohammed K Ali</A> MBChB <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff32" name=back-aff32 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>af</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mohammad A AlMazroa'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mohammad A+AlMazroa" cmImpressionSent="1">Mohammad A AlMazroa</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff33" name=back-aff33 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ag</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Miriam Alvarado'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Miriam+Alvarado" cmImpressionSent="1">Miriam Alvarado</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','H Ross Anderson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=H Ross+Anderson" cmImpressionSent="1">H Ross Anderson</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff34" name=back-aff34 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ah</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Laurie M Anderson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Laurie M+Anderson" cmImpressionSent="1">Laurie M Anderson</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff7" name=back-aff7 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>g</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kathryn G Andrews'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kathryn G+Andrews" cmImpressionSent="1">Kathryn G Andrews</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Charles Atkinson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Charles+Atkinson" cmImpressionSent="1">Charles Atkinson</A> BS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Larry M Baddour'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Larry M+Baddour" cmImpressionSent="1">Larry M Baddour</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff35" name=back-aff35 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ai</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Adil N Bahalim'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Adil N+Bahalim" cmImpressionSent="1">Adil N Bahalim</A> MEng <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff36" name=back-aff36 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>aj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Suzanne Barker-Collo'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Suzanne+Barker-Collo" cmImpressionSent="1">Suzanne Barker-Collo</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff37" name=back-aff37 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ak</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lope H Barrero'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lope H+Barrero" cmImpressionSent="1">Lope H Barrero</A> ScD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff38" name=back-aff38 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>al</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David H Bartels'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David H+Bartels" cmImpressionSent="1">David H Bartels</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff21" name=back-aff21 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>u</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Maria-Gloria Basáñez'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Maria-Gloria+Bas%C3%A1%C3%B1ez" cmImpressionSent="1">Maria-Gloria Basáñez</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff12" name=back-aff12 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>l</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Amanda Baxter'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Amanda+Baxter" cmImpressionSent="1">Amanda Baxter</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff1" name=back-aff1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>a</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michelle L Bell'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michelle L+Bell" cmImpressionSent="1">Michelle L Bell</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff40" name=back-aff40 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>an</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Emelia J Benjamin'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Emelia J+Benjamin" cmImpressionSent="1">Emelia J Benjamin</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff42" name=back-aff42 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ap</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Derrick Bennett'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Derrick+Bennett" cmImpressionSent="1">Derrick Bennett</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff43" name=back-aff43 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>aq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Eduardo Bernabé'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Eduardo+Bernab%C3%A9" cmImpressionSent="1">Eduardo Bernabé</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff45" name=back-aff45 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>as</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kavi Bhalla'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kavi+Bhalla" cmImpressionSent="1">Kavi Bhalla</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff21" name=back-aff21 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>u</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Bishal Bhandari'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Bishal+Bhandari" cmImpressionSent="1">Bishal Bhandari</A> MSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff49" name=back-aff49 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>aw</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Boris Bikbov'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Boris+Bikbov" cmImpressionSent="1">Boris Bikbov</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff50" name=back-aff50 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ax</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Aref Bin Abdulhak'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Aref Bin+Abdulhak" cmImpressionSent="1">Aref Bin Abdulhak</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff51" name=back-aff51 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ay</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Gretchen Birbeck'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Gretchen+Birbeck" cmImpressionSent="1">Gretchen Birbeck</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff52" name=back-aff52 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>az</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','James A Black'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=James A+Black" cmImpressionSent="1">James A Black</A> MPhil <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff53" name=back-aff53 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ba</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Hannah Blencowe'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Hannah+Blencowe" cmImpressionSent="1">Hannah Blencowe</A> MBChB <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff54" name=back-aff54 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jed D Blore'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jed D+Blore" cmImpressionSent="1">Jed D Blore</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff2" name=back-aff2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>b</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Fiona Blyth'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Fiona+Blyth" cmImpressionSent="1">Fiona Blyth</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff59" name=back-aff59 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ian Bolliger'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ian+Bolliger" cmImpressionSent="1">Ian Bolliger</A> AB <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Audrey Bonaventure'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Audrey+Bonaventure" cmImpressionSent="1">Audrey Bonaventure</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff60" name=back-aff60 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bh</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Soufiane Boufous'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Soufiane+Boufous" cmImpressionSent="1">Soufiane Boufous</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff61" name=back-aff61 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bi</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rupert Bourne'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rupert+Bourne" cmImpressionSent="1">Rupert Bourne</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff64" name=back-aff64 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bl</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michel Boussinesq'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michel+Boussinesq" cmImpressionSent="1">Michel Boussinesq</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff65" name=back-aff65 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Tasanee Braithwaite'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Tasanee+Braithwaite" cmImpressionSent="1">Tasanee Braithwaite</A> BMBCh <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff66" name=back-aff66 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bn</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Carol Brayne'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Carol+Brayne" cmImpressionSent="1">Carol Brayne</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff67" name=back-aff67 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bo</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lisa Bridgett'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lisa+Bridgett" cmImpressionSent="1">Lisa Bridgett</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff59" name=back-aff59 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Simon Brooker'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Simon+Brooker" cmImpressionSent="1">Simon Brooker</A> DPhil <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff54" name=back-aff54 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Peter Brooks'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Peter+Brooks" cmImpressionSent="1">Peter Brooks</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff29" name=back-aff29 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ac</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Traolach S Brugha'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Traolach S+Brugha" cmImpressionSent="1">Traolach S Brugha</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff68" name=back-aff68 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bp</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Claire Bryan-Hancock'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Claire+Bryan-Hancock" cmImpressionSent="1">Claire Bryan-Hancock</A> BPsych <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff69" name=back-aff69 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Chiara Bucello'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Chiara+Bucello" cmImpressionSent="1">Chiara Bucello</A> BPsyc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff63" name=back-aff63 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bk</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rachelle Buchbinder'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rachelle+Buchbinder" cmImpressionSent="1">Rachelle Buchbinder</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff70" name=back-aff70 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>br</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Geoffrey Buckle'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Geoffrey+Buckle" cmImpressionSent="1">Geoffrey Buckle</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff73" name=back-aff73 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bu</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Christine M Budke'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Christine M+Budke" cmImpressionSent="1">Christine M Budke</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff75" name=back-aff75 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bw</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michael Burch'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michael+Burch" cmImpressionSent="1">Michael Burch</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff76" name=back-aff76 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bx</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Peter Burney'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Peter+Burney" cmImpressionSent="1">Peter Burney</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff12" name=back-aff12 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>l</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Roy Burstein'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Roy+Burstein" cmImpressionSent="1">Roy Burstein</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Bianca Calabria'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Bianca+Calabria" cmImpressionSent="1">Bianca Calabria</A> BPsych <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff62" name=back-aff62 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Benjamin Campbell'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Benjamin+Campbell" cmImpressionSent="1">Benjamin Campbell</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Charles E Canter'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Charles E+Canter" cmImpressionSent="1">Charles E Canter</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff77" name=back-aff77 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>by</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Hélène Carabin'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=H%C3%A9l%C3%A8ne+Carabin" cmImpressionSent="1">Hélène Carabin</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff78" name=back-aff78 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bz</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jonathan Carapetis'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jonathan+Carapetis" cmImpressionSent="1">Jonathan Carapetis</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff79" name=back-aff79 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ca</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Loreto Carmona'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Loreto+Carmona" cmImpressionSent="1">Loreto Carmona</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff81" name=back-aff81 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cc</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Claudia Cella'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Claudia+Cella" cmImpressionSent="1">Claudia Cella</A> PharmChemD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff82" name=back-aff82 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Fiona Charlson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Fiona+Charlson" cmImpressionSent="1">Fiona Charlson</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff2" name=back-aff2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>b</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Honglei Chen'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Honglei+Chen" cmImpressionSent="1">Honglei Chen</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff83" name=back-aff83 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ce</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Andrew Tai-Ann Cheng'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Andrew Tai-Ann+Cheng" cmImpressionSent="1">Andrew Tai-Ann Cheng</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff84" name=back-aff84 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cf</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David Chou'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David+Chou" cmImpressionSent="1">David Chou</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sumeet S Chugh'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sumeet S+Chugh" cmImpressionSent="1">Sumeet S Chugh</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff86" name=back-aff86 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ch</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Luc E Coffeng'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Luc E+Coffeng" cmImpressionSent="1">Luc E Coffeng</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff88" name=back-aff88 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Steven D Colan'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Steven D+Colan" cmImpressionSent="1">Steven D Colan</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff19" name=back-aff19 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>s</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Samantha Colquhoun'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Samantha+Colquhoun" cmImpressionSent="1">Samantha Colquhoun</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff89" name=back-aff89 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ck</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','K Ellicott Colson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=K Ellicott+Colson" cmImpressionSent="1">K Ellicott Colson</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','John Condon'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=John+Condon" cmImpressionSent="1">John Condon</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff89" name=back-aff89 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ck</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Myles D Connor'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Myles D+Connor" cmImpressionSent="1">Myles D Connor</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff92" name=back-aff92 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cn</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff90" name=back-aff90 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cl</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff91" name=back-aff91 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Leslie T Cooper'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Leslie T+Cooper" cmImpressionSent="1">Leslie T Cooper</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff93" name=back-aff93 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>co</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Matthew Corriere'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Matthew+Corriere" cmImpressionSent="1">Matthew Corriere</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff94" name=back-aff94 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cp</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Monica Cortinovis'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Monica+Cortinovis" cmImpressionSent="1">Monica Cortinovis</A> BiotechD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff82" name=back-aff82 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Karen Courville de Vaccaro'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Karen Courville+de Vaccaro" cmImpressionSent="1">Karen Courville de Vaccaro</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff95" name=back-aff95 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','William Couser'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=William+Couser" cmImpressionSent="1">William Couser</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff9" name=back-aff9 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>i</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Benjamin C Cowie'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Benjamin C+Cowie" cmImpressionSent="1">Benjamin C Cowie</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff96" name=back-aff96 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cr</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michael H Criqui'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michael H+Criqui" cmImpressionSent="1">Michael H Criqui</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff97" name=back-aff97 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cs</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Marita Cross'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Marita+Cross" cmImpressionSent="1">Marita Cross</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff59" name=back-aff59 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kaustubh C Dabhadkar'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kaustubh C+Dabhadkar" cmImpressionSent="1">Kaustubh C Dabhadkar</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff32" name=back-aff32 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>af</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Manu Dahiya'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Manu+Dahiya" cmImpressionSent="1">Manu Dahiya</A> BDS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff48" name=back-aff48 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>av</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Nabila Dahodwala'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Nabila+Dahodwala" cmImpressionSent="1">Nabila Dahodwala</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff98" name=back-aff98 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ct</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','James Damsere-Derry'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=James+Damsere-Derry" cmImpressionSent="1">James Damsere-Derry</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff99" name=back-aff99 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cu</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Goodarz Danaei'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Goodarz+Danaei" cmImpressionSent="1">Goodarz Danaei</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Adrian Davis'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Adrian+Davis" cmImpressionSent="1">Adrian Davis</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff100" name=back-aff100 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cv</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Diego De Leo'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Diego De+Leo" cmImpressionSent="1">Diego De Leo</A> DSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff103" name=back-aff103 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cy</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Louisa Degenhardt'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Louisa+Degenhardt" cmImpressionSent="1">Louisa Degenhardt</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff27" name=back-aff27 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>aa</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff62" name=back-aff62 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Robert Dellavalle'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Robert+Dellavalle" cmImpressionSent="1">Robert Dellavalle</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff104" name=back-aff104 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cz</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Allyne Delossantos'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Allyne+Delossantos" cmImpressionSent="1">Allyne Delossantos</A> BS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Julie Denenberg'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Julie+Denenberg" cmImpressionSent="1">Julie Denenberg</A> MA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff97" name=back-aff97 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cs</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sarah Derrett'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sarah+Derrett" cmImpressionSent="1">Sarah Derrett</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff105" name=back-aff105 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>da</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Don C Des Jarlais'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Don C+Des Jarlais" cmImpressionSent="1">Don C Des Jarlais</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff106" name=back-aff106 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>db</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Samath D Dharmaratne'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Samath D+Dharmaratne" cmImpressionSent="1">Samath D Dharmaratne</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff107" name=back-aff107 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dc</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mukesh Dherani'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mukesh+Dherani" cmImpressionSent="1">Mukesh Dherani</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff108" name=back-aff108 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Cesar Diaz-Torne'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Cesar+Diaz-Torne" cmImpressionSent="1">Cesar Diaz-Torne</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff109" name=back-aff109 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>de</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Helen Dolk'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Helen+Dolk" cmImpressionSent="1">Helen Dolk</A> DrPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff110" name=back-aff110 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>df</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','E Ray Dorsey'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=E Ray+Dorsey" cmImpressionSent="1">E Ray Dorsey</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff74" name=back-aff74 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bv</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Tim Driscoll'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Tim+Driscoll" cmImpressionSent="1">Tim Driscoll</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff58" name=back-aff58 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bf</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Herbert Duber'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Herbert+Duber" cmImpressionSent="1">Herbert Duber</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff9" name=back-aff9 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>i</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Beth Ebel'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Beth+Ebel" cmImpressionSent="1">Beth Ebel</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff9" name=back-aff9 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>i</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Karen Edmond'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Karen+Edmond" cmImpressionSent="1">Karen Edmond</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff54" name=back-aff54 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Alexis Elbaz'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Alexis+Elbaz" cmImpressionSent="1">Alexis Elbaz</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff60" name=back-aff60 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bh</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Suad Eltahir Ali'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Suad Eltahir+Ali" cmImpressionSent="1">Suad Eltahir Ali</A> Mcs <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff111" name=back-aff111 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Holly Erskine'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Holly+Erskine" cmImpressionSent="1">Holly Erskine</A> BPsySc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff1" name=back-aff1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>a</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Patricia J Erwin'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Patricia J+Erwin" cmImpressionSent="1">Patricia J Erwin</A> MLS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff35" name=back-aff35 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ai</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Patricia Espindola'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Patricia+Espindola" cmImpressionSent="1">Patricia Espindola</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff112" name=back-aff112 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dh</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Stalin E Ewoigbokhan'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Stalin E+Ewoigbokhan" cmImpressionSent="1">Stalin E Ewoigbokhan</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff113" name=back-aff113 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>di</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Farshad Farzadfar'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Farshad+Farzadfar" cmImpressionSent="1">Farshad Farzadfar</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff115" name=back-aff115 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dk</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Valery Feigin'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Valery+Feigin" cmImpressionSent="1">Valery Feigin</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff116" name=back-aff116 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dl</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David T Felson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David T+Felson" cmImpressionSent="1">David T Felson</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff41" name=back-aff41 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ao</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Alize Ferrari'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Alize+Ferrari" cmImpressionSent="1">Alize Ferrari</A> BPsySc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff1" name=back-aff1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>a</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Cleusa P Ferri'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Cleusa P+Ferri" cmImpressionSent="1">Cleusa P Ferri</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff119" name=back-aff119 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>do</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Eric M Fèvre'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Eric M+F%C3%A8vre" cmImpressionSent="1">Eric M Fèvre</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff91" name=back-aff91 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mariel M Finucane'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mariel M+Finucane" cmImpressionSent="1">Mariel M Finucane</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff15" name=back-aff15 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>o</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Seth Flaxman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Seth+Flaxman" cmImpressionSent="1">Seth Flaxman</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff120" name=back-aff120 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dp</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Louise Flood'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Louise+Flood" cmImpressionSent="1">Louise Flood</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff69" name=back-aff69 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kyle Foreman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kyle+Foreman" cmImpressionSent="1">Kyle Foreman</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff12" name=back-aff12 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>l</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mohammad H Forouzanfar'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mohammad H+Forouzanfar" cmImpressionSent="1">Mohammad H Forouzanfar</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Francis Gerry R Fowkes'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Francis Gerry R+Fowkes" cmImpressionSent="1">Francis Gerry R Fowkes</A> FRCPE <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff91" name=back-aff91 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Marlene Fransen'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Marlene+Fransen" cmImpressionSent="1">Marlene Fransen</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff56" name=back-aff56 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michael K Freeman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michael K+Freeman" cmImpressionSent="1">Michael K Freeman</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Belinda J Gabbe'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Belinda J+Gabbe" cmImpressionSent="1">Belinda J Gabbe</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff71" name=back-aff71 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bs</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sherine E Gabriel'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sherine E+Gabriel" cmImpressionSent="1">Sherine E Gabriel</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff35" name=back-aff35 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ai</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Emmanuela Gakidou'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Emmanuela+Gakidou" cmImpressionSent="1">Emmanuela Gakidou</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Hammad A Ganatra'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Hammad A+Ganatra" cmImpressionSent="1">Hammad A Ganatra</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff32" name=back-aff32 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>af</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Bianca Garcia'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Bianca+Garcia" cmImpressionSent="1">Bianca Garcia</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff5" name=back-aff5 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>e</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Flavio Gaspari'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Flavio+Gaspari" cmImpressionSent="1">Flavio Gaspari</A> ChemD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff82" name=back-aff82 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Richard F Gillum'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Richard F+Gillum" cmImpressionSent="1">Richard F Gillum</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff122" name=back-aff122 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dr</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Gerhard Gmel'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Gerhard+Gmel" cmImpressionSent="1">Gerhard Gmel</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff123" name=back-aff123 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ds</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Diego Gonzalez-Medina'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Diego+Gonzalez-Medina" cmImpressionSent="1">Diego Gonzalez-Medina</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Richard Gosselin'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Richard+Gosselin" cmImpressionSent="1">Richard Gosselin</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff125" name=back-aff125 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>du</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rebecca Grainger'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rebecca+Grainger" cmImpressionSent="1">Rebecca Grainger</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff105" name=back-aff105 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>da</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Bridget Grant'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Bridget+Grant" cmImpressionSent="1">Bridget Grant</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff140" name=back-aff140 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ej</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Justina Groeger'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Justina+Groeger" cmImpressionSent="1">Justina Groeger</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff126" name=back-aff126 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dv</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Francis Guillemin'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Francis+Guillemin" cmImpressionSent="1">Francis Guillemin</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff129" name=back-aff129 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dy</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David Gunnell'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David+Gunnell" cmImpressionSent="1">David Gunnell</A> DSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff130" name=back-aff130 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dz</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ramyani Gupta'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ramyani+Gupta" cmImpressionSent="1">Ramyani Gupta</A> MSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff34" name=back-aff34 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ah</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Juanita Haagsma'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Juanita+Haagsma" cmImpressionSent="1">Juanita Haagsma</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff88" name=back-aff88 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Holly Hagan'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Holly+Hagan" cmImpressionSent="1">Holly Hagan</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff131" name=back-aff131 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ea</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Yara A Halasa'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Yara A+Halasa" cmImpressionSent="1">Yara A Halasa</A> DDS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff132" name=back-aff132 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>eb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Wayne Hall'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Wayne+Hall" cmImpressionSent="1">Wayne Hall</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff5" name=back-aff5 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>e</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Diana Haring'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Diana+Haring" cmImpressionSent="1">Diana Haring</A> BS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Josep Maria Haro'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Josep Maria+Haro" cmImpressionSent="1">Josep Maria Haro</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff133" name=back-aff133 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ec</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','James E Harrison'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=James E+Harrison" cmImpressionSent="1">James E Harrison</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff69" name=back-aff69 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rasmus Havmoeller'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rasmus+Havmoeller" cmImpressionSent="1">Rasmus Havmoeller</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff85" name=back-aff85 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff134" name=back-aff134 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ed</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Roderick J Hay'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Roderick J+Hay" cmImpressionSent="1">Roderick J Hay</A> DM <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff46" name=back-aff46 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>at</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Hideki Higashi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Hideki+Higashi" cmImpressionSent="1">Hideki Higashi</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff2" name=back-aff2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>b</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Catherine Hill'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Catherine+Hill" cmImpressionSent="1">Catherine Hill</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff135" name=back-aff135 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ee</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Bruno Hoen'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Bruno+Hoen" cmImpressionSent="1">Bruno Hoen</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff136" name=back-aff136 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ef</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff137" name=back-aff137 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>eg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Howard Hoffman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Howard+Hoffman" cmImpressionSent="1">Howard Hoffman</A> MA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff138" name=back-aff138 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>eh</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Peter J Hotez'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Peter J+Hotez" cmImpressionSent="1">Peter J Hotez</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff141" name=back-aff141 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ek</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Damian Hoy'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Damian+Hoy" cmImpressionSent="1">Damian Hoy</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff72" name=back-aff72 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bt</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','John J Huang'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=John J+Huang" cmImpressionSent="1">John J Huang</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff40" name=back-aff40 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>an</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sydney E Ibeanusi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sydney E+Ibeanusi" cmImpressionSent="1">Sydney E Ibeanusi</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff142" name=back-aff142 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>el</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kathryn H Jacobsen'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kathryn H+Jacobsen" cmImpressionSent="1">Kathryn H Jacobsen</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff143" name=back-aff143 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>em</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Spencer L James'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Spencer L+James" cmImpressionSent="1">Spencer L James</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Deborah Jarvis'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Deborah+Jarvis" cmImpressionSent="1">Deborah Jarvis</A> FFPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff12" name=back-aff12 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>l</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rashmi Jasrasaria'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rashmi+Jasrasaria" cmImpressionSent="1">Rashmi Jasrasaria</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sudha Jayaraman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sudha+Jayaraman" cmImpressionSent="1">Sudha Jayaraman</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff20" name=back-aff20 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>t</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Nicole Johns'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Nicole+Johns" cmImpressionSent="1">Nicole Johns</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jost B Jonas'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jost B+Jonas" cmImpressionSent="1">Jost B Jonas</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff144" name=back-aff144 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>en</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ganesan Karthikeyan'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ganesan+Karthikeyan" cmImpressionSent="1">Ganesan Karthikeyan</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff145" name=back-aff145 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>eo</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Nicholas Kassebaum'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Nicholas+Kassebaum" cmImpressionSent="1">Nicholas Kassebaum</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff8" name=back-aff8 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>h</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Norito Kawakami'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Norito+Kawakami" cmImpressionSent="1">Norito Kawakami</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff14" name=back-aff14 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>n</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Andre Keren'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Andre+Keren" cmImpressionSent="1">Andre Keren</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff146" name=back-aff146 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ep</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jon-Paul Khoo'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jon-Paul+Khoo" cmImpressionSent="1">Jon-Paul Khoo</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff1" name=back-aff1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>a</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Charles H King'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Charles H+King" cmImpressionSent="1">Charles H King</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff147" name=back-aff147 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>eq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lisa Marie Knowlton'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lisa Marie+Knowlton" cmImpressionSent="1">Lisa Marie Knowlton</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff18" name=back-aff18 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>r</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Olive Kobusingye'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Olive+Kobusingye" cmImpressionSent="1">Olive Kobusingye</A> MMed <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff148" name=back-aff148 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>er</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff149" name=back-aff149 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>es</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Adofo Koranteng'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Adofo+Koranteng" cmImpressionSent="1">Adofo Koranteng</A> MSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff150" name=back-aff150 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>et</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rita Krishnamurthi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rita+Krishnamurthi" cmImpressionSent="1">Rita Krishnamurthi</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff117" name=back-aff117 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Francine Laden'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Francine+Laden" cmImpressionSent="1">Francine Laden</A> ScD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ratilal Lalloo'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ratilal+Lalloo" cmImpressionSent="1">Ratilal Lalloo</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff101" name=back-aff101 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cw</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff102" name=back-aff102 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cx</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Laura L Laslett'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Laura L+Laslett" cmImpressionSent="1">Laura L Laslett</A> MMedSci <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff151" name=back-aff151 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>eu</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Tim Lathlean'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Tim+Lathlean" cmImpressionSent="1">Tim Lathlean</A> MA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff69" name=back-aff69 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Janet L Leasher'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Janet L+Leasher" cmImpressionSent="1">Janet L Leasher</A> OD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff152" name=back-aff152 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ev</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Yong Yi Lee'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Yong Yi+Lee" cmImpressionSent="1">Yong Yi Lee</A> MHEcon <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff2" name=back-aff2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>b</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','James Leigh'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=James+Leigh" cmImpressionSent="1">James Leigh</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff58" name=back-aff58 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bf</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Daphna Levinson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Daphna+Levinson" cmImpressionSent="1">Daphna Levinson</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff153" name=back-aff153 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ew</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Stephen S Lim'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Stephen S+Lim" cmImpressionSent="1">Stephen S Lim</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Elizabeth Limb'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Elizabeth+Limb" cmImpressionSent="1">Elizabeth Limb</A> MSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff34" name=back-aff34 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ah</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','John Kent Lin'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=John Kent+Lin" cmImpressionSent="1">John Kent Lin</A> AB <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michael Lipnick'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michael+Lipnick" cmImpressionSent="1">Michael Lipnick</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff125" name=back-aff125 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>du</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Steven E Lipshultz'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Steven E+Lipshultz" cmImpressionSent="1">Steven E Lipshultz</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff154" name=back-aff154 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ex</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Wei Liu'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Wei+Liu" cmImpressionSent="1">Wei Liu</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff17" name=back-aff17 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>q</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Maria Loane'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Maria+Loane" cmImpressionSent="1">Maria Loane</A> MSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff110" name=back-aff110 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>df</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Summer Lockett Ohno'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Summer Lockett+Ohno" cmImpressionSent="1">Summer Lockett Ohno</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ronan Lyons'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ronan+Lyons" cmImpressionSent="1">Ronan Lyons</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff155" name=back-aff155 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ey</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jacqueline Mabweijano'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jacqueline+Mabweijano" cmImpressionSent="1">Jacqueline Mabweijano</A> MMed <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff156" name=back-aff156 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ez</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michael F MacIntyre'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michael F+MacIntyre" cmImpressionSent="1">Michael F MacIntyre</A> EdM <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Reza Malekzadeh'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Reza+Malekzadeh" cmImpressionSent="1">Reza Malekzadeh</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff114" name=back-aff114 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Leslie Mallinger'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Leslie+Mallinger" cmImpressionSent="1">Leslie Mallinger</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sivabalan Manivannan'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sivabalan+Manivannan" cmImpressionSent="1">Sivabalan Manivannan</A> ScM <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff73" name=back-aff73 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bu</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Wagner Marcenes'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Wagner+Marcenes" cmImpressionSent="1">Wagner Marcenes</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff49" name=back-aff49 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>aw</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lyn March'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lyn+March" cmImpressionSent="1">Lyn March</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff57" name=back-aff57 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>be</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David J Margolis'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David J+Margolis" cmImpressionSent="1">David J Margolis</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff98" name=back-aff98 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ct</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Guy B Marks'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Guy B+Marks" cmImpressionSent="1">Guy B Marks</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff59" name=back-aff59 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Robin Marks'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Robin+Marks" cmImpressionSent="1">Robin Marks</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff29" name=back-aff29 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ac</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Akira Matsumori'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Akira+Matsumori" cmImpressionSent="1">Akira Matsumori</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff157" name=back-aff157 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fa</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Richard Matzopoulos'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Richard+Matzopoulos" cmImpressionSent="1">Richard Matzopoulos</A> MPhil <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff158" name=back-aff158 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff161" name=back-aff161 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fe</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Bongani M Mayosi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Bongani M+Mayosi" cmImpressionSent="1">Bongani M Mayosi</A> DPhil <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff161" name=back-aff161 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fe</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','John H McAnulty'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=John H+McAnulty" cmImpressionSent="1">John H McAnulty</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff162" name=back-aff162 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ff</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mary M McDermott'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mary M+McDermott" cmImpressionSent="1">Mary M McDermott</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff163" name=back-aff163 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Neil McGill'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Neil+McGill" cmImpressionSent="1">Neil McGill</A> FRACP <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff59" name=back-aff59 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','John McGrath'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=John+McGrath" cmImpressionSent="1">John McGrath</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff4" name=back-aff4 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>d</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Maria Elena Medina-Mora'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Maria Elena+Medina-Mora" cmImpressionSent="1">Maria Elena Medina-Mora</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff164" name=back-aff164 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fh</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michele Meltzer'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michele+Meltzer" cmImpressionSent="1">Michele Meltzer</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff165" name=back-aff165 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fi</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ziad A Memish'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ziad A+Memish" cmImpressionSent="1">Ziad A Memish</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff33" name=back-aff33 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ag</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff166" name=back-aff166 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','George A Mensah'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=George A+Mensah" cmImpressionSent="1">George A Mensah</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff160" name=back-aff160 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Tony R Merriman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Tony R+Merriman" cmImpressionSent="1">Tony R Merriman</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff105" name=back-aff105 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>da</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ana-Claire Meyer'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ana-Claire+Meyer" cmImpressionSent="1">Ana-Claire Meyer</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff125" name=back-aff125 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>du</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Valeria Miglioli'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Valeria+Miglioli" cmImpressionSent="1">Valeria Miglioli</A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff82" name=back-aff82 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Matthew Miller'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Matthew+Miller" cmImpressionSent="1">Matthew Miller</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ted R Miller'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ted R+Miller" cmImpressionSent="1">Ted R Miller</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff167" name=back-aff167 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fk</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Philip B Mitchell'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Philip B+Mitchell" cmImpressionSent="1">Philip B Mitchell</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff63" name=back-aff63 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bk</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Charles Mock'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Charles+Mock" cmImpressionSent="1">Charles Mock</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff9" name=back-aff9 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>i</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ana Olga Mocumbi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ana Olga+Mocumbi" cmImpressionSent="1">Ana Olga Mocumbi</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff168" name=back-aff168 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fl</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff169" name=back-aff169 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Terrie E Moffitt'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Terrie E+Moffitt" cmImpressionSent="1">Terrie E Moffitt</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff170" name=back-aff170 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fn</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ali A Mokdad'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ali A+Mokdad" cmImpressionSent="1">Ali A Mokdad</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lorenzo Monasta'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lorenzo+Monasta" cmImpressionSent="1">Lorenzo Monasta</A> DSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff171" name=back-aff171 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fo</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Marcella Montico'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Marcella+Montico" cmImpressionSent="1">Marcella Montico</A> Msc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff171" name=back-aff171 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fo</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Maziar Moradi-Lakeh'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Maziar+Moradi-Lakeh" cmImpressionSent="1">Maziar Moradi-Lakeh</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff115" name=back-aff115 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dk</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Andrew Moran'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Andrew+Moran" cmImpressionSent="1">Andrew Moran</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff173" name=back-aff173 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lidia Morawska'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lidia+Morawska" cmImpressionSent="1">Lidia Morawska</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff174" name=back-aff174 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fr</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rintaro Mori'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rintaro+Mori" cmImpressionSent="1">Rintaro Mori</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff175" name=back-aff175 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fs</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michele E Murdoch'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michele E+Murdoch" cmImpressionSent="1">Michele E Murdoch</A> FRCP <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff176" name=back-aff176 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ft</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michael K Mwaniki'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michael K+Mwaniki" cmImpressionSent="1">Michael K Mwaniki</A> MBChB <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff177" name=back-aff177 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fu</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kovin Naidoo'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kovin+Naidoo" cmImpressionSent="1">Kovin Naidoo</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff178" name=back-aff178 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fv</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','M Nathan Nair'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=M Nathan+Nair" cmImpressionSent="1">M Nathan Nair</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Luigi Naldi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Luigi+Naldi" cmImpressionSent="1">Luigi Naldi</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff179" name=back-aff179 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fw</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','K M Venkat Narayan'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=K M Venkat+Narayan" cmImpressionSent="1">K M Venkat Narayan</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff32" name=back-aff32 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>af</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Paul K Nelson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Paul K+Nelson" cmImpressionSent="1">Paul K Nelson</A> MHSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff62" name=back-aff62 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Robert G Nelson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Robert G+Nelson" cmImpressionSent="1">Robert G Nelson</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff139" name=back-aff139 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ei</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michael C Nevitt'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michael C+Nevitt" cmImpressionSent="1">Michael C Nevitt</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff124" name=back-aff124 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dt</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Charles R Newton'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Charles R+Newton" cmImpressionSent="1">Charles R Newton</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff44" name=back-aff44 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ar</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sandra Nolte'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sandra+Nolte" cmImpressionSent="1">Sandra Nolte</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff180" name=back-aff180 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fx</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Paul Norman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Paul+Norman" cmImpressionSent="1">Paul Norman</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff80" name=back-aff80 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rosana Norman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rosana+Norman" cmImpressionSent="1">Rosana Norman</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff2" name=back-aff2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>b</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Martin O\Donnell'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Martin+O'Donnell" cmImpressionSent="1">Martin O&#8217;Donnell</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff181" name=back-aff181 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fy</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Simon O\Hanlon'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Simon+O'Hanlon" cmImpressionSent="1">Simon O&#8217;Hanlon</A> MSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff12" name=back-aff12 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>l</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Casey Olives'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Casey+Olives" cmImpressionSent="1">Casey Olives</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff9" name=back-aff9 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>i</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Saad B Omer'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Saad B+Omer" cmImpressionSent="1">Saad B Omer</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff31" name=back-aff31 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ae</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Katrina Ortblad'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Katrina+Ortblad" cmImpressionSent="1">Katrina Ortblad</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Richard Osborne'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Richard+Osborne" cmImpressionSent="1">Richard Osborne</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff182" name=back-aff182 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fz</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Doruk Ozgediz'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Doruk+Ozgediz" cmImpressionSent="1">Doruk Ozgediz</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff39" name=back-aff39 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>am</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Andrew Page'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Andrew+Page" cmImpressionSent="1">Andrew Page</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff2" name=back-aff2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>b</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Bishnu Pahari'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Bishnu+Pahari" cmImpressionSent="1">Bishnu Pahari</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff183" name=back-aff183 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ga</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jeyaraj Durai Pandian'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jeyaraj Durai+Pandian" cmImpressionSent="1">Jeyaraj Durai Pandian</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff184" name=back-aff184 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Andrea Panozo Rivero'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Andrea Panozo+Rivero" cmImpressionSent="1">Andrea Panozo Rivero</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff185" name=back-aff185 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gc</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Scott B Patten'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Scott B+Patten" cmImpressionSent="1">Scott B Patten</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff186" name=back-aff186 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Neil Pearce'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Neil+Pearce" cmImpressionSent="1">Neil Pearce</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff54" name=back-aff54 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rogelio Perez Padilla'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rogelio Perez+Padilla" cmImpressionSent="1">Rogelio Perez Padilla</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff187" name=back-aff187 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ge</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Fernando Perez-Ruiz'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Fernando+Perez-Ruiz" cmImpressionSent="1">Fernando Perez-Ruiz</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff188" name=back-aff188 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gf</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Norberto Perico'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Norberto+Perico" cmImpressionSent="1">Norberto Perico</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff82" name=back-aff82 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Konrad Pesudovs'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Konrad+Pesudovs" cmImpressionSent="1">Konrad Pesudovs</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff69" name=back-aff69 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David Phillips'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David+Phillips" cmImpressionSent="1">David Phillips</A> BS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Michael R Phillips'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Michael R+Phillips" cmImpressionSent="1">Michael R Phillips</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff189" name=back-aff189 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kelsey Pierce'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kelsey+Pierce" cmImpressionSent="1">Kelsey Pierce</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sébastien Pion'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=S%C3%A9bastien+Pion" cmImpressionSent="1">Sébastien Pion</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff65" name=back-aff65 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Guilherme V Polanczyk'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Guilherme V+Polanczyk" cmImpressionSent="1">Guilherme V Polanczyk</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff118" name=back-aff118 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dn</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Suzanne Polinder'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Suzanne+Polinder" cmImpressionSent="1">Suzanne Polinder</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff87" name=back-aff87 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ci</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','C Arden Pope'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=C Arden+Pope" cmImpressionSent="1">C Arden Pope</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff191" name=back-aff191 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gi</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Svetlana Popova'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Svetlana+Popova" cmImpressionSent="1">Svetlana Popova</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff192" name=back-aff192 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Esteban Porrini'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Esteban+Porrini" cmImpressionSent="1">Esteban Porrini</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff193" name=back-aff193 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gk</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Farshad Pourmalek'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Farshad+Pourmalek" cmImpressionSent="1">Farshad Pourmalek</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff194" name=back-aff194 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gl</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Martin Prince'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Martin+Prince" cmImpressionSent="1">Martin Prince</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff47" name=back-aff47 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>au</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rachel L Pullan'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rachel L+Pullan" cmImpressionSent="1">Rachel L Pullan</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff54" name=back-aff54 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kapa D Ramaiah'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kapa D+Ramaiah" cmImpressionSent="1">Kapa D Ramaiah</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff195" name=back-aff195 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Dharani Ranganathan'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Dharani+Ranganathan" cmImpressionSent="1">Dharani Ranganathan</A> BS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Homie Razavi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Homie+Razavi" cmImpressionSent="1">Homie Razavi</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff196" name=back-aff196 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gn</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mathilda Regan'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mathilda+Regan" cmImpressionSent="1">Mathilda Regan</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff197" name=back-aff197 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>go</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jürgen T Rehm'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=J%C3%BCrgen T+Rehm" cmImpressionSent="1">Jürgen T Rehm</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff192" name=back-aff192 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David B Rein'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David B+Rein" cmImpressionSent="1">David B Rein</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff198" name=back-aff198 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gp</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Guiseppe Remuzzi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Guiseppe+Remuzzi" cmImpressionSent="1">Guiseppe Remuzzi</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff82" name=back-aff82 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kathryn Richardson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kathryn+Richardson" cmImpressionSent="1">Kathryn Richardson</A> MSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff67" name=back-aff67 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bo</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Frederick P Rivara'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Frederick P+Rivara" cmImpressionSent="1">Frederick P Rivara</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff9" name=back-aff9 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>i</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Thomas Roberts'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Thomas+Roberts" cmImpressionSent="1">Thomas Roberts</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Carolyn Robinson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Carolyn+Robinson" cmImpressionSent="1">Carolyn Robinson</A> BS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff125" name=back-aff125 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>du</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Felipe Rodriguez De Leòn'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Felipe Rodriguez+De Le%C3%B2n" cmImpressionSent="1">Felipe Rodriguez De Leòn</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff199" name=back-aff199 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Luca Ronfani'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Luca+Ronfani" cmImpressionSent="1">Luca Ronfani</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff171" name=back-aff171 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fo</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Robin Room'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Robin+Room" cmImpressionSent="1">Robin Room</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff28" name=back-aff28 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ab</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff200" name=back-aff200 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gr</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lisa C Rosenfeld'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lisa C+Rosenfeld" cmImpressionSent="1">Lisa C Rosenfeld</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lesley Rushton'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lesley+Rushton" cmImpressionSent="1">Lesley Rushton</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff12" name=back-aff12 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>l</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ralph L Sacco'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ralph L+Sacco" cmImpressionSent="1">Ralph L Sacco</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff154" name=back-aff154 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ex</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sukanta Saha'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sukanta+Saha" cmImpressionSent="1">Sukanta Saha</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff1" name=back-aff1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>a</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Uchechukwu Sampson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Uchechukwu+Sampson" cmImpressionSent="1">Uchechukwu Sampson</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff201" name=back-aff201 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gs</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lidia Sanchez-Riera'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lidia+Sanchez-Riera" cmImpressionSent="1">Lidia Sanchez-Riera</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff57" name=back-aff57 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>be</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Ella Sanman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Ella+Sanman" cmImpressionSent="1">Ella Sanman</A> BS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David C Schwebel'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David C+Schwebel" cmImpressionSent="1">David C Schwebel</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff202" name=back-aff202 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gt</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','James Graham Scott'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=James Graham+Scott" cmImpressionSent="1">James Graham Scott</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff3" name=back-aff3 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>c</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Maria Segui-Gomez'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Maria+Segui-Gomez" cmImpressionSent="1">Maria Segui-Gomez</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff203" name=back-aff203 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gu</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Saeid Shahraz'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Saeid+Shahraz" cmImpressionSent="1">Saeid Shahraz</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff132" name=back-aff132 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>eb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Donald S Shepard'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Donald S+Shepard" cmImpressionSent="1">Donald S Shepard</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff132" name=back-aff132 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>eb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Hwashin Shin'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Hwashin+Shin" cmImpressionSent="1">Hwashin Shin</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff204" name=back-aff204 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gv</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Rupak Shivakoti'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Rupak+Shivakoti" cmImpressionSent="1">Rupak Shivakoti</A> BA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff74" name=back-aff74 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bv</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David Singh'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David+Singh" cmImpressionSent="1">David Singh</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff205" name=back-aff205 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gw</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Gitanjali M Singh'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Gitanjali M+Singh" cmImpressionSent="1">Gitanjali M Singh</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jasvinder A Singh'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jasvinder A+Singh" cmImpressionSent="1">Jasvinder A Singh</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff202" name=back-aff202 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gt</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jessica Singleton'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jessica+Singleton" cmImpressionSent="1">Jessica Singleton</A> MIPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff62" name=back-aff62 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David A Sleet'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David A+Sleet" cmImpressionSent="1">David A Sleet</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff127" name=back-aff127 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dw</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Karen Sliwa'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Karen+Sliwa" cmImpressionSent="1">Karen Sliwa</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff159" name=back-aff159 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fc</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Emma Smith'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Emma+Smith" cmImpressionSent="1">Emma Smith</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff55" name=back-aff55 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bc</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jennifer L Smith'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jennifer L+Smith" cmImpressionSent="1">Jennifer L Smith</A> MSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff54" name=back-aff54 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>bb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Nicolas JC Stapelberg'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Nicolas JC+Stapelberg" cmImpressionSent="1">Nicolas JC Stapelberg</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff103" name=back-aff103 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cy</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Andrew Steer'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Andrew+Steer" cmImpressionSent="1">Andrew Steer</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff25" name=back-aff25 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>y</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Timothy Steiner'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Timothy+Steiner" cmImpressionSent="1">Timothy Steiner</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff207" name=back-aff207 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gy</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Wilma A Stolk'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Wilma A+Stolk" cmImpressionSent="1">Wilma A Stolk</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff88" name=back-aff88 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>cj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Lars Jacob Stovner'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Lars Jacob+Stovner" cmImpressionSent="1">Lars Jacob Stovner</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff206" name=back-aff206 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gx</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Christopher Sudfeld'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Christopher+Sudfeld" cmImpressionSent="1">Christopher Sudfeld</A> ScM <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sana Syed'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sana+Syed" cmImpressionSent="1">Sana Syed</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff208" name=back-aff208 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gz</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Giorgio Tamburlini'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Giorgio+Tamburlini" cmImpressionSent="1">Giorgio Tamburlini</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff171" name=back-aff171 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fo</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mohammad Tavakkoli'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mohammad+Tavakkoli" cmImpressionSent="1">Mohammad Tavakkoli</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Hugh R Taylor'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Hugh R+Taylor" cmImpressionSent="1">Hugh R Taylor</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff29" name=back-aff29 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ac</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jennifer A Taylor'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jennifer A+Taylor" cmImpressionSent="1">Jennifer A Taylor</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff209" name=back-aff209 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ha</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','William J Taylor'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=William J+Taylor" cmImpressionSent="1">William J Taylor</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff105" name=back-aff105 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>da</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Bernadette Thomas'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Bernadette+Thomas" cmImpressionSent="1">Bernadette Thomas</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff9" name=back-aff9 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>i</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','W Murray Thomson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=W Murray+Thomson" cmImpressionSent="1">W Murray Thomson</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff105" name=back-aff105 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>da</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','George D Thurston'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=George D+Thurston" cmImpressionSent="1">George D Thurston</A> ScD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff131" name=back-aff131 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ea</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Imad M Tleyjeh'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Imad M+Tleyjeh" cmImpressionSent="1">Imad M Tleyjeh</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff51" name=back-aff51 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ay</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Marcello Tonelli'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Marcello+Tonelli" cmImpressionSent="1">Marcello Tonelli</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff210" name=back-aff210 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jeffrey A Towbin'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jeffrey A+Towbin" cmImpressionSent="1">Jeffrey A Towbin</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff212" name=back-aff212 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hd</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Thomas Truelsen'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Thomas+Truelsen" cmImpressionSent="1">Thomas Truelsen</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff213" name=back-aff213 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>he</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Miltiadis K Tsilimbaris'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Miltiadis K+Tsilimbaris" cmImpressionSent="1">Miltiadis K Tsilimbaris</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff214" name=back-aff214 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hf</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Clotilde Ubeda'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Clotilde+Ubeda" cmImpressionSent="1">Clotilde Ubeda</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff215" name=back-aff215 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hg</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Eduardo A Undurraga'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Eduardo A+Undurraga" cmImpressionSent="1">Eduardo A Undurraga</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff132" name=back-aff132 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>eb</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Marieke J van der Werf'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Marieke J+van der Werf" cmImpressionSent="1">Marieke J van der Werf</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff216" name=back-aff216 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hh</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Jim van Os'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Jim+van Os" cmImpressionSent="1">Jim van Os</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff217" name=back-aff217 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hi</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Monica S Vavilala'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Monica S+Vavilala" cmImpressionSent="1">Monica S Vavilala</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff9" name=back-aff9 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>i</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','N Venketasubramanian'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=N+Venketasubramanian" cmImpressionSent="1">N Venketasubramanian</A> FRCP <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff218" name=back-aff218 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hj</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Mengru Wang'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Mengru+Wang" cmImpressionSent="1">Mengru Wang</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Wenzhi Wang'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Wenzhi+Wang" cmImpressionSent="1">Wenzhi Wang</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff219" name=back-aff219 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hk</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Kerrianne Watt'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Kerrianne+Watt" cmImpressionSent="1">Kerrianne Watt</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff121" name=back-aff121 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David J Weatherall'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David J+Weatherall" cmImpressionSent="1">David J Weatherall</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff44" name=back-aff44 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ar</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Martin A Weinstock'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Martin A+Weinstock" cmImpressionSent="1">Martin A Weinstock</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff220" name=back-aff220 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hl</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Robert Weintraub'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Robert+Weintraub" cmImpressionSent="1">Robert Weintraub</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff26" name=back-aff26 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>z</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff221" name=back-aff221 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Marc G Weisskopf'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Marc G+Weisskopf" cmImpressionSent="1">Marc G Weisskopf</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Myrna M Weissman'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Myrna M+Weissman" cmImpressionSent="1">Myrna M Weissman</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff172" name=back-aff172 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>fp</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Richard A White'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Richard A+White" cmImpressionSent="1">Richard A White</A> MA <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff16" name=back-aff16 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>p</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Harvey Whiteford'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Harvey+Whiteford" cmImpressionSent="1">Harvey Whiteford</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff1" name=back-aff1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>a</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Natasha Wiebe'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Natasha+Wiebe" cmImpressionSent="1">Natasha Wiebe</A> BMath <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff211" name=back-aff211 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hc</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Steven T Wiersma'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Steven T+Wiersma" cmImpressionSent="1">Steven T Wiersma</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff128" name=back-aff128 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dx</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','James D Wilkinson'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=James D+Wilkinson" cmImpressionSent="1">James D Wilkinson</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff154" name=back-aff154 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ex</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Hywel C Williams'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Hywel C+Williams" cmImpressionSent="1">Hywel C Williams</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff222" name=back-aff222 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hn</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sean RM Williams'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sean RM+Williams" cmImpressionSent="1">Sean RM Williams</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff223" name=back-aff223 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>ho</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Emma Witt'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Emma+Witt" cmImpressionSent="1">Emma Witt</A> MSc <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff117" name=back-aff117 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>dm</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Frederick Wolfe'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Frederick+Wolfe" cmImpressionSent="1">Frederick Wolfe</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff224" name=back-aff224 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hp</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Anthony D Woolf'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Anthony D+Woolf" cmImpressionSent="1">Anthony D Woolf</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff225" name=back-aff225 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hq</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Sarah Wulf'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Sarah+Wulf" cmImpressionSent="1">Sarah Wulf</A> MPH <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff6" name=back-aff6 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>f</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Pon-Hsiu Yeh'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Pon-Hsiu+Yeh" cmImpressionSent="1">Pon-Hsiu Yeh</A> MS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff226" name=back-aff226 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hr</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Anita KM Zaidi'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Anita KM+Zaidi" cmImpressionSent="1">Anita KM Zaidi</A> MBBS <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff208" name=back-aff208 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gz</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Zhi-Jie Zheng'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Zhi-Jie+Zheng" cmImpressionSent="1">Zhi-Jie Zheng</A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff190" name=back-aff190 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>gh</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author><A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','David Zonies'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=David+Zonies" cmImpressionSent="1">David Zonies</A> MD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff227" name=back-aff227 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>hs</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn1" name=back-fn1 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>*</SPAN></A>, </SPAN><SPAN class=ja50-ce-author>Prof <A class=ja50-ce-author _onclick="javascript:getListOfAuthorArticles('The Lancet','Alan D Lopez'); return false;" href="http://www.thelancet.com/search/results?fieldName=Authors&#038;searchTerm=Alan D+Lopez" cmImpressionSent="1">Alan D Lopez</A> PhD <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#aff2" name=back-aff2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>b</SPAN></A> <A class=ja50-ce-cross-ref title="" href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61689-4/abstract#fn2" name=back-fn2 cmImpressionSent="1"><SPAN class=ja50-ce-sup>†</SPAN></A></SPAN><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-abstract><br />
<H2 class=ja50-ce-section-title>Summary</H2><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-abstract-section><br />
<H3 class=ja50-ce-section-title>Background</H3><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-simple-para>Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.</DIV></DIV><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-abstract-section><br />
<H3 class=ja50-ce-section-title>Methods</H3><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-simple-para>We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.</DIV></DIV><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-abstract-section><br />
<H3 class=ja50-ce-section-title>Findings</H3><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-simple-para>Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.</DIV></DIV><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-abstract-section><br />
<H3 class=ja50-ce-section-title>Interpretation</H3><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-simple-para>Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.</DIV></DIV><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-abstract-section><br />
<H3 class=ja50-ce-section-title>Funding</H3><br />
<DIV class=ja50-ce-simple-para>Bill &#038; Melinda Gates Foundation.<BR><BR>==================================</SPAN><BR></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><br />
<H3 class=tit_subject>술로 11개월, 담배로 9.4개월.. 건강壽命(수명) 축낸다</H3><SPAN class=tit_subtit>美 건강측정평가硏 조사</SPAN> <BR><SPAN class=info_data><SPAN class=data><FONT color=#999999 size=2><BR>조선일보</FONT></SPAN> <SPAN class=reporter><SPAN class=txt_bar><FONT color=#d2d2d2 size=2>|</FONT></SPAN> <SPAN class=data><FONT color=#999999 size=2>김철중 의학전문기자</FONT></SPAN> </SPAN><SPAN class=txt_bar><FONT color=#d2d2d2 size=2>|</FONT></SPAN> <SPAN class=data><FONT color=#999999 size=2>입력</FONT></SPAN> <SPAN class="num ff_tahoma"><FONT color=#999999 size=2>2013.06.20 03:18</FONT></SPAN> <SPAN class=modify_date><SPAN class=txt_bar><FONT color=#d2d2d2 size=2>|</FONT></SPAN> <SPAN class=data><FONT color=#999999 size=2>수정</FONT></SPAN> <SPAN class="num ff_tahoma"><FONT color=#999999 size=2>2013.06.20 10:03<BR></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><A href="http://media.daum.net/society/welfare/newsview?newsid=20130620031803159&#038;RIGHT_COMM=R11">http://media.daum.net/society/welfare/newsview?newsid=20130620031803159&#038;RIGHT_COMM=R11</A><BR><BR>오래 산다고 다 축복은 아니다. 병든 삶이 오래 지속되는 건 본인에게도, 가족들에게도 고통이다. 사람들은 오랫동안 건강한 삶을 유지해야 장수의 의미가 있다고 말한다. 건강한 삶의 질은 무병 기간과 사망 나이의 격차를 최대한 줄이는 데서 나온다. 이 때문에 세계보건기구(WHO)에서도 국가 간 건강 상황을 비교할 때 단순히 평균수명만을 따지는 것이 아니라, 건강수명 지표를 중요하게 보고 있다. 이런 상황에서 건강측정평가연구소(IHME)가 최근 공개한 장애보정수명 조사 결과(2010년 기준)는 시사점이 크다. 이에 따르면, 한국인의 건강한 삶을 갉아먹는 최대 주범은 건전하지 못한 식습관, 그리고 술·담배였다. 술 때문에 약 11.1개월, 담배 때문에 약 9.4개월의 건강수명이 단축되는 것으로 나타났다.<BR><BR><br />
<DIV class=image style="WIDTH: 540px" sizset="0" sizcache="2"><br />
<P class=img sizset="0" sizcache="2"><IMG height=1056 alt="" src="http://i2.media.daumcdn.net/photo-media/201306/20/chosun/20130620100306011.jpeg" width=540></P><br />
<P class=txt>↑ [조선일보]건강수명(장애보정수명)을 줄이는 위험 요소들. 지난 20년간 한국인의 수명을 단축시킨 요인 변화. 한국·일본·중국·미국의 기대수명과 건강수명 비교.&lt;br&gt; /그래픽=박상훈 기자</P></DIV><BR>◇<B>한국인, 술 때문에 건강수명 왕창 까먹는다</B><BR><BR>이번 조사에서 &#8216;음주&#8217;와 &#8216;흡연&#8217;이란 요소는 한국인의 건강수명을 줄이는 또 다른 요인인 고혈압(7.1개월 단축), 고혈당(6.5개월), 비만(5.5개월), 운동 부족(5.3개월) 등과 비교해도 압도적으로 큰 비중을 차지했다. &#8216;건전하지 못한 식습관&#8217;이 건강수명을 크게 줄이는 첫째 요인이긴 했지만, 이 안에 나트륨 과다 섭취나 불규칙한 식사 습관 등 세부 요소가 많이 포함됐기 때문에 단일 요소로는 술·담배 탓이 제일 컸다.<BR><BR>외국과 비교하면 건전하지 못한 음주 습관이 얼마나 한국인의 건강한 삶을 줄이는지 더 명확해진다. 이웃 일본과 중국은 모두 술이 건강수명을 줄이는 단일 요소로 여섯째 순위였다. 술 때문에 건강수명이 단축되는 기간도 일본과 중국은 각각 4개월과 4.3개월 정도였다. 미국에서도 술은 건강수명을 5.7개월 정도 단축시키는 데 그쳤다. 우리나라에서 술 때문에 줄어드는 건강수명(11.1개월)은 주요 국가와 비교해봐도 2~3배 길다.<BR><BR>고려대의대 윤석준 예방의학과 교수는 &#8220;장수 국가인 일본은 &#8216;고혈압&#8217;이 건강수명에 가장 큰 영향을 끼쳤고, 중국은 대기오염과 같은 &#8216;굴뚝 연기&#8217;가, 미국은 &#8216;비만&#8217;과 같은 요소가 건강한 삶에 악영향을 끼쳤다&#8221;며 &#8220;이에 비해 잦은 음주 등으로 인한 건강수명 단축이 우리나라의 특징&#8221;이라고 말했다. 울산의대 예방의학교실 강영호 교수는 &#8220;술로 인해 건강수명이 단축됐다고 명시되는 연구는 드물어 중요한 메시지를 주고 있다&#8221;며 &#8220;현재 우리 정부는 알코올중독자 등을 제외하고 음주 관련 정책이 거의 전무(全無)한데 국민 건강을 위해서는 하루빨리 술 판매나 마케팅에 대한 규제 등 구체적인 정부 대책을 내놓아야 할 것&#8221;이라고 말했다.<BR><BR>◇<B>사회가 역동적인 만큼, 위험 요인도 요동쳐</B><BR><BR>1990년과 2010년 한국의 건강수명에 미친 질병이나 위험 요인을 비교해 보면, 지난 20년간 한국 사회가 얼마나 급속히 변화했는지가 고스란히 드러난다. 우리나라 사람의 건강한 삶에 악영향을 주는 위험 요인으로 지난 20년 만에 새롭게 떠오른 것은 자살, 폐암, 당뇨병, 대장암, 치매 등이다. 청소년과 노년층 자살이 크게 늘어난 탓에, 자살은 20년 전 위험 요인 7위였다가 이제 2위가 됐다. 1980년대에 우리나라 흡연율이 세계 1위라는 기록을 갖고 있는데, 그것이 이제 폐암 환자가 대거 등장한 현상으로 나타났다. 가난한 환경에서 자라난 장년 세대들이 경제 형편이 좋아지면서 과식을 하고, 고기를 즐기는 바람에 당뇨병과 대장암에 시달리는 이들도 늘었다. 보릿고개를 해결하자 과잉의 질병이 생긴 것이다.반대로 위험 요인이 줄어든 부분도 있다. 안전에 대한 의식이 높아진 덕에 교통사고나 익사사고 등이 줄었고, 선천성 기형, 결핵 등도 감소했다. 장기간 질병 후유증을 낳는 뇌졸중은 예나 지금이나 활기찬 삶을 가로막는 위험 요인 1위다. 다만 절대 숫자는 줄고 있다</p>
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		<title>[경제위기/공공의료] 미국 경제봉쇄로 쿠바인 더 건강해져?</title>
		<link>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=3908</link>
		<comments>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=3908#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Apr 2013 11:09:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[공공의료]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[노동 · 환경]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BMJ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[경제봉쇄]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[경제위기]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[기초 진료]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[미국]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[사망률]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[석유]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[쿠바]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends Manuel Franco, [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><H4 sizset="98" sizcache="28"><A href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515"><FONT color=#006990>Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends</FONT></A></H4><br />
<P><STRONG>Manuel Franco, Usama Bilal, Pedro Orduñez, Mikhail Benet, Alain Morejón, Benjamín Caballero, Joan F Kennelly, Richard S Cooper</STRONG></P><br />
<P class=smaller-font><I>BMJ</I> 2013;346:f1515 (Published 09 April 2013) <BR></P><br />
<H4 sizset="98" sizcache="28"><A href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515">http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515</A><BR><BR>===============<BR><BR>경제봉쇄로 쿠바인 더 건강해져?<!-- TITLE END --> </H4><br />
<DD><SPAN class=name>주영재 기자 jyj@kyunghyang.com</SPAN> <BR><BR>경향신문 입력 : 2013-04-10 13:53:29<SPAN class=textBar>ㅣ</SPAN>수정 : 2013-04-10 13:53:29 <BR><A href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100">http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100</A><BR><BR><SPAN id=_article sizcache09020741458735857="15" sizset="117"><SPAN class=article_txt id=sub_cntTopTxt sizcache09020741458735857="15" sizset="117">쿠바인들이 1990년대 초반 미국의 경제봉쇄와 <A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">러시아</A> 지원의 중단으로 석유와 식량 부족에 시달리며 힘든 시기를 겪으며 오히려 <IMG id=uniqubeSt2TrackingImg style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px; HEIGHT: 0px" src="http://nvs.uniqube.tv/nvs/article?p=khan^|^201304101353291^|^1^|^khan.co.kr^|^edf599f0fba4d49735bdfb5daa5d3402^|^%uACBD%uC81C%uBD09%uC1C4%uB85C%20%uCFE0%uBC14%uC778%20%uB354%20%uAC74%uAC15%uD574%uC838%3F^|^20130410135329^|^A001^|^http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" borderStyle="none"><IMG id=uniqubeTrackingImg style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; DISPLAY: inline; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; MARGIN: 0px; WIDTH: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px; HEIGHT: 0px" src="http://player.uniqube.tv/Logging/ArticleViewTracking/khan/201304101353291/news.khan.co.kr/1/0" borderStyle="none"><A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">심장 질환</A>과 당뇨의 발병률이 낮아졌다는 연구 결과가 나왔다. <BR><BR>쿠바인들은 1991~1995년까지 고난의 시기 동안 <A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">당나귀</A>에 의존해 짐을 날랐고, 정부는 석유를 소비하는 차량 대신 중국에서 150만대의 자전거를 수입해야 했다. <BR><BR>가디언에 따르면 미국, 스페인, 쿠바의 대학 연구자들은 이 기간 식사량이 줄고, 자전거를 타거나 걷는 시간이 늘고, 육체 노동이 증가한 것이 건강에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는지를 확인하려고 했다.<BR><BR><SPAN id=_article sizcache09020741458735857="15" sizset="117"><SPAN class=article_txt id=sub_cntTopTxt sizcache09020741458735857="15" sizset="117"><SPAN class=article_txt id=sub_cntBottomTxt sizcache09020741458735857="15" sizset="120">쿠바는 무상 의료가 상당한 수준으로 진척된 국가로 “맨발의 의사”들이 광범위한 기초 진료를 행하고 있으며 국민 건강 상태에 대한 자료도 잘 구축되어 있다. <BR></SPAN><BR>연구자들은 1980~2010년까지 쿠바인들의 몸무게와 <A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">심장질환</A>, 뇌졸중, 당뇨로 인한 사망률의 변화를 관찰한 결과를 영국 메디컬저널에 발표했다.<BR><BR>스페인 <A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">마드리드</A>의 알카라 대학의 마누엘 프랑코 교수가 이끈 연구진은 쿠바인의 몸무게가 경제봉쇄로 위기에 몰린 1991~1995년 동안 평균 5.5㎏ 감소했음을 알게됐다. 이는 건강에 직접적인 영향을 줘 당뇨로 인한 사망자를 절반까지 줄였으며 <A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">심근경색</A>으로 인한 사망률은 3분의 1로 줄었다.<BR><BR>연구진은 “이런 추세는 소비에트 붕괴와 미국의 경제봉쇄로 쿠바 경제가 식량과 대중교통을 확보할 수 있는 능력이 줄어든 것과 관련이 있었다”며 “심각한 식량 및 <A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">에너지</A> 부족은 열량 섭취를 줄이면서 동시에 (대중교통 대신 걷거나 자전거를 타면서) 열량 소비를 증가시켰다”고 말했다.<BR><BR>쿠바 경제 위기가 1996년 이후 끝나고 회복기에 들어서자 몸무게는 다시 증가하기 시작했고 신체활동 수준도 미미하지만 감소했다. 쿠바는 2000년부터 안정적인 성장을 지속했으며 2002년에 이르러서는 음식과 음료 소비량이 증가해 위기 이전 수준을 넘었다. 그 결과 2011년 쿠바 인구의 비만률은 1995년에 비해 거의 세배로 증가했다. 당뇨도 1995년부터 증가해 2002년부터 2010년까지 당뇨사망률은 위기 이전 수준의 증가세로 돌아갔다. <BR><BR>월터 윌렛 <A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">하버드</A> 공공의료대학의 영양학과장은 이 연구가 “비만과 <A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">과체중</A> 감소가 주는 커다란 이점을 보여주는 강력한 증거”라고 평가했다. <BR><BR>논문 저자들은 이같은 결과가 체중 감소가 실질적인 이득을 가져올 수 있다는 것을 보여준다고 주장하고 있다. 프랑코 교수는 “교통 정책이 근본적인 것으로 교통 수단으로 걷기와 자전거 타기를 장려할 필요성이 있다”고 밝혔다.<BR><BR>또한 육체 활동을 증진시키고 건강에 좋지 않은 음료와 음식을 <A class=dklink style="CURSOR: default; COLOR: #00309c; TEXT-DECORATION: underline" href="http://news.khan.co.kr/kh_news/khan_art_view.html?artid=201304101353291&#038;code=970100" target=_blank _onclick="return false">어린이</A>에게 공격적으로 홍보하는 것을 규제하거나 불량 식품에 더 많은 세금을 부과하는 것도 하나의 전략이라고 과학자들은 조언했다. <BR><BR>그럼에도 그는 쿠바의 경제 위기가 현재 경제위기를 겪는 유럽에 건강과 관련한 어떤 유사한 이득을 주지는 않을 것이라고 내다봤다. 인종과 사회적 환경이 유사한 쿠바와 달리 유럽은 훨씬 이질적이기 때문이다. <BR><BR>연구자들은 또한 과학 논문에 어울리지 않게 위기를 초래한 정치에 비난을, 쿠바인들의 대응 방식에 찬사를 보냈다.<BR><BR>이들은 논문에서 “우리는 고난의 기간 동안 극도로 어려운 사회 경제적 도전에 직면한 쿠바 국민들이 용기와 위엄을 잃지 않고 대응한 것에 존경과 찬사를 보낸다”며 “이 비극은 국제 정치에 의한 ‘인재’이며 다시는 어느 나라에서도 되풀이 되어선 안된다”고 썼다.<BR><BR>=======================<BR><br />
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<H1>Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends</H1></DIV></DIV><br />
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<DIV id=slugline sizset="124" sizcache="2"><CITE sizset="124" sizcache="2"><SPAN id=article-slug-jnl-abbr><ABBR class=slug-jnl-abbrev title=BMJ><?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = NLM /><NLM:ABBREV-JOURNAL-TITLE xmlns:nlm="http://schema.highwire.org/NLM/Journal" abbrev-type="publisher">BMJ</NLM:ABBREV-JOURNAL-TITLE> </ABBR></SPAN><SPAN class=slug-pub-date-pop>2013;</SPAN> <SPAN class=pop-slug-vol>346</SPAN> <SPAN class=slug-doi title=10.1136/bmj.f1515>doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.f1515</SPAN> <SPAN class=slug-ahead-of-print-date>(Published 9 April 2013)</SPAN><br />
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<OL class=contributor-list id=contrib-group-1 sizset="96" sizcache="33"><br />
<LI class=contributor id=contrib-1 sizset="96" sizcache="32"><FONT size=2><SPAN class=name>Manuel Franco</SPAN><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM>, associate professor</EM></SPAN></FONT><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-1-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-1"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>1</FONT></A><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM><FONT size=2>, adjunct associate professor</FONT></EM></SPAN><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-2-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-2"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>2</FONT></A><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM><FONT size=2>, visiting researcher</FONT></EM></SPAN><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-3-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-3"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>3</FONT></A><FONT size=2>, </FONT><br />
<LI class=contributor id=contrib-2 sizset="99" sizcache="32"><FONT size=2><SPAN class=name>Usama Bilal</SPAN><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM>, research assistant</EM></SPAN></FONT><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-1-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-1"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>1</FONT></A><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM><FONT size=2>, visiting researcher</FONT></EM></SPAN><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-3-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-3"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>3</FONT></A><FONT size=2>, </FONT><br />
<LI class=contributor id=contrib-3 sizset="101" sizcache="32"><FONT size=2><SPAN class=name>Pedro Orduñez</SPAN><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM>, regional adviser</EM></SPAN></FONT><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-4-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-4"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>4</FONT></A><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM><FONT size=2>, professor</FONT></EM></SPAN><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-5-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-5"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>5</FONT></A><FONT size=2>, </FONT><br />
<LI class=contributor id=contrib-4 sizset="103" sizcache="32"><FONT size=2><SPAN class=name>Mikhail Benet</SPAN><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM>, professor</EM></SPAN></FONT><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-5-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-5"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>5</FONT></A><FONT size=2>, </FONT><br />
<LI class=contributor id=contrib-5 sizset="104" sizcache="32"><FONT size=2><SPAN class=name>Alain Morejón</SPAN><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM>, assistant professor</EM></SPAN></FONT><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-5-3 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-5"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>5</FONT></A><FONT size=2>, </FONT><br />
<LI class=contributor id=contrib-6 sizset="105" sizcache="32"><FONT size=2><SPAN class=name>Benjamín Caballero</SPAN><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM>, professor</EM></SPAN></FONT><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-6-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-6"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>6</FONT></A><FONT size=2>, </FONT><br />
<LI class=contributor id=contrib-7 sizset="106" sizcache="32"><FONT size=2><SPAN class=name>Joan F Kennelly</SPAN><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM>, research assistant professor</EM></SPAN></FONT><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-7-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-7"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>7</FONT></A><FONT size=2>, </FONT><br />
<LI class=last id=contrib-8 sizset="107" sizcache="32"><FONT size=2><SPAN class=name>Richard S Cooper</SPAN><SPAN class=contrib-role><EM>, professor and chair</EM></SPAN></FONT><A class=xref-aff id=xref-aff-8-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#aff-8"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>8</FONT></A></LI></OL><br />
<DIV class=author-affiliation sizset="0" sizcache="41"><br />
<P class=affiliation-list-reveal style="CURSOR: pointer; COLOR: #006990" jQuery1365644385218="200">Author Affiliations</P><br />
<OL class=affiliation-list style="DISPLAY: none" sizset="108" sizcache="33" jQuery1365644385218="199"><br />
<LI class=aff sizset="108" sizcache="32"><A id=aff-1 name=aff-1></A><br />
<ADDRESS><SUP><FONT size=2>1</FONT></SUP>Social and Cardiovascular Epidemiology Research Group, School of Medicine, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain</ADDRESS><br />
<LI class=aff sizset="109" sizcache="32"><A id=aff-2 name=aff-2></A><br />
<ADDRESS><SUP><FONT size=2>2</FONT></SUP>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA</ADDRESS><br />
<LI class=aff sizset="110" sizcache="32"><A id=aff-3 name=aff-3></A><br />
<ADDRESS><SUP><FONT size=2>3</FONT></SUP>Department of Epidemiology, Atherothrombosis and Cardiovascular Imaging, Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares Madrid, Spain</ADDRESS><br />
<LI class=aff sizset="111" sizcache="32"><A id=aff-4 name=aff-4></A><br />
<ADDRESS><SUP><FONT size=2>4</FONT></SUP>Project for Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Pan American Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA</ADDRESS><br />
<LI class=aff sizset="112" sizcache="32"><A id=aff-5 name=aff-5></A><br />
<ADDRESS><SUP><FONT size=2>5</FONT></SUP>Centro de Estudios sobre Enfermedades Crónicas, Universidad de Ciencias Médicas, Cienfuegos, Cuba</ADDRESS><br />
<LI class=aff sizset="113" sizcache="32"><A id=aff-6 name=aff-6></A><br />
<ADDRESS><SUP><FONT size=2>6</FONT></SUP>Center for Human Nutrition, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA</ADDRESS><br />
<LI class=aff sizset="114" sizcache="32"><A id=aff-7 name=aff-7></A><br />
<ADDRESS><SUP><FONT size=2>7</FONT></SUP>Division of Community Health Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health, Chicago, IL, USA</ADDRESS><br />
<LI class=aff sizset="115" sizcache="32"><A id=aff-8 name=aff-8></A><br />
<ADDRESS><SUP><FONT size=2>8</FONT></SUP>Department of Public Health Sciences, Loyola University Stritch School of Medicine, Maywood, IL, USA</ADDRESS></LI></OL></DIV><br />
<OL class=corresp-list sizset="116" sizcache="33"><br />
<LI class=corresp id=corresp-1 sizset="116" sizcache="32"><FONT size=2>Correspondence to: M Franco <SPAN class=em-link sizset="116" sizcache="32"><SPAN class=em-addr sizset="116" sizcache="32"><A href="mailto:mfranco@uah.es"><FONT color=#006990>mfranco@uah.es</FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></LI></OL><br />
<UL class=history-list><br />
<LI class=accepted xmlns:hwp="http://schema.highwire.org/Journal" hwp:start="2013-02-11"><SPAN class=accepted-label><STRONG>Accepted </STRONG></SPAN>11 February 2013</LI></UL></DIV><br />
<DIV class="section abstract" id=abstract-1 sizset="20" sizcache="37"><br />
<H2>Abstract</H2><br />
<P id=p-2><STRONG>Objective</STRONG> To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval.</P><br />
<P id=p-3><STRONG>Design</STRONG> Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.</P><br />
<P id=p-4><STRONG>Setting</STRONG> Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010.</P><br />
<P id=p-5><STRONG>Participants</STRONG> Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. </P><br />
<P id=p-6><STRONG>Main outcome measures</STRONG> Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics.</P><br />
<P id=p-7><STRONG>Results</STRONG> Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed. </P><br />
<P id=p-8><STRONG>Conclusions</STRONG> In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class="section intro" id=sec-1 sizset="27" sizcache="37"><br />
<H2>Introduction</H2><br />
<P id=p-9 sizset="117" sizcache="32">It was recognised early in the course of the global epidemic of type 2 diabetes that variation in the prevalence of the disease among populations could be explained largely by relative weight.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-1-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-1"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>1</FONT></A> This observation is supported by survey research from virtually every country in the World Health Organization database.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-2-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-2"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>2</FONT></A> Despite predictions on the effect of the obesity and diabetes epidemics on life expectancy,<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-3-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-3"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>3</FONT></A> it is unclear to what extent they can alter the downward trend of cardiovascular diseases prevalence observed in many countries.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-4-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-4"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>4</FONT></A> Furthermore, lack of adequate data for public health precludes the empirical assessment of comparable trends across the developing world. Most cohort studies have suggested a “U” shaped association between body mass index and mortality, with the lowest point in the index range of 24 to 29.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-5-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-5"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>5</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-6-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-6"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>6</FONT></A> Therefore, key unknown factors are the net health impact of a given downward shift in the distribution of body mass index in a population, and the time lag between changes in body mass index and in the prevalence of non-communicable disease.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-7-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-7"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>7</FONT></A></P><br />
<P id=p-10><FONT color=#006990 size=1></FONT><br />
<DIV class="supplementary-material video-content" id=DC1 sizset="29" sizcache="37"><br />
<DIV class=supplementary-material-caption sizset="29" sizcache="37"><br />
<P class=first-child id=p-11>Video abstract</P></DIV><A class="highwire-video vplayer" id=highwire_video_00 style="DISPLAY: block; BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(/highwire/filestream/640410/field_highwire_fragment_image_m/0/media-1.medium.jpg); WIDTH: 448px; HEIGHT: 252px; background-size: 448px 252px" href="rtmp://fms.1EFD.edgecastcdn.net/001EFD/miovid/mp4:da5a1677-a12f-4a27-b851-852d77d56921.mp4"><IMG class=highwire-video-play-button style="MARGIN-TOP: 84px; MARGIN-LEFT: 182px" alt=Video src="http://www.bmj.com/sites/all/libraries/flowplayer/play_large.png"></IMG></A></DIV><br />
<P></P><br />
<P id=p-12 sizset="125" sizcache="32">Marked and rapid reductions in mortality from diabetes and coronary heart disease were observed in Cuba after the profound economic crisis of the early 1990s.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-8-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-8"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>8</FONT></A> These trends were associated with the declining capacity of the Cuban economy to assure food and mass transportation in the aftermath of the dissolution of the former Soviet Union and the tightening of the US embargo. Severe shortages of food and gas resulted in a widespread decline in dietary energy intake and increase in energy expenditure (mainly through walking and cycling as alternatives to mechanised transportation). </P><br />
<P id=p-13 sizset="126" sizcache="32">The largest effect of this economic crisis occurred over a period of about five years (1991-95, the so called “special period”), resulting in an average weight loss of 4-5 kg across the adult population.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-8-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-8"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>8</FONT></A> This economic crisis was not a full disruption of previous routines of daily life, but was actually characterised by its slow process of economic decline. During these years, the whole population continued to meet responsibilities in relation to work, school, and other social aspects, and the Ministry of Public Health maintained its regular surveillance system activities.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-9-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-9"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>9</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-10-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-10"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>10</FONT></A></P><br />
<P id=p-14 sizset="129" sizcache="32">Since then, the Cuban economy has shown a modest but constant recovery, especially after the year 2000.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-11-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-11"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>11</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-12-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-12"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>12</FONT></A> In fact, surveys have shown that the prevalence of obesity has now exceeded pre-crisis levels.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-13-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-13"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>13</FONT></A> The table<A class=xref-down-link id=xref-table-wrap-1-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#T1"><SPAN><FONT color=#006990>⇓</FONT></SPAN></A> shows basic sociodemographic and economic information on Cuba before, during, and after the economic crisis.</P><br />
<DIV class="table pos-float" id=T1 sizset="34" sizcache="37"><br />
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<DIV class=table-caption sizset="34" sizcache="37"><br />
<P class=first-child id=p-15>Basic sociodemographic and economic information on Cuba at various stages of economic crisis<SUP><FONT size=2>12</FONT></SUP></P><br />
<DIV class="sb-div caption-clear"><FONT size=2></FONT></DIV></DIV></DIV><br />
<P id=p-22 sizset="135" sizcache="32">To advance the prevention of non-communicable diseases, population-wide data remain crucial. Comparing disease rates over time, in relation to changes in risk factor levels in the population, indicates the extent to which disease can be prevented and what the most important risk factors are at the population level.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-14-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-14"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>14</FONT></A> The population preventive approach articulated by Geoffrey Rose in his seminal paper,<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-15-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-15"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>15</FONT></A> is of importance when preventing and controlling non-communicable diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases. The current study exemplifies a unique situation where population-wide body weight changed considerably, as a result of the combined and sustained effect of reduced energy intake and elevated physical activity. This scenario allowed us to assess its effect on diabetes and cardiovascular disease.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-16-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-16"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>16</FONT></A></P><br />
<P id=p-23>Our objective was to examine the effect of population-wide changes in body weight—over a full cycle of weight loss and regain—on diabetes incidence, prevalence, and mortality in Cuba, from 1980 to 2010. We also assessed the effects of this weight change cycle on rates of death from cardiovascular disease, cancer, all causes.</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class="section methods" id=sec-2 sizset="37" sizcache="37"><br />
<H2>Methods</H2><br />
<P id=p-24>To study the population-wide changes in body weight over time, we used four cross sectional surveys in the city of Cienfuegos, on the southern coast of Cuba. These surveys are part of the Project of Cienfuegos, an initiative designed to study the risk factors for non-communicable diseases in Cuba.</P><br />
<P id=p-25>To obtain all available data from government and published sources on mortality, physical activity, energy intake, and smoking in Cuba between 1980 and 2011, we did a systematic search. We used the following databases: Medline, Spanish Bibliographic Index in Health Sciences (IBECS), and the Scientific Library Online (BVS-SciELO Cuba), which includes most Cuban journals. Web appendix 1 details the 12 references included.</P><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-3 sizset="39" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Height, weight or overweight, and obesity</H3><br />
<P id=p-26>The four cross sectional surveys measured height and weight, on the basis of stratified probability samples from the urban population aged 15-74 years. The surveys included 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults for the years 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2011, respectively. The age distribution of the population in Cienfuegos is similar to the general Cuban population (web appendix 2). We used the following categories for body mass index: underweight (<18.5), normal weight (18.5-<25), overweight (25-<30), and obesity (≥30). All participants in the four surveys signed the informed consent. The ethics committee of the University of Medical Sciences, Cienfuegos, approved protocols. </P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-4 sizset="40" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Physical activity</H3><br />
<P id=p-27>Measures of self reported physical activity were available from representative samples of the population in Havana in 1987, 1988, and 1994 and from the national surveys on risk factors and chronic diseases (conducted nationally in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively). In these surveys, participants were designated as physically active if they engaged in regular physical activity, defined as 30 minutes of moderate or intense activity on at least five days per week.</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-5 sizset="41" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Energy intake</H3><br />
<P id=p-28>The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations provides disappearance data on energy intake per capita, by dividing total calories available for human consumption by the total population consuming the food supply during the reference period.</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-6 sizset="42" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Smoking</H3><br />
<P id=p-29 sizset="138" sizcache="32">National use of cigarettes per capita was calculated as the total number of cigarettes sold per year divided by the population aged 15 years and over. The prevalence of smoking was obtained from the national surveys on risk factors and chronic diseases conducted in 1995, 2001, and 2010, and other national studies previously conducted. We defined smoking as self reported current use of cigarettes or cigars (or both).<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-17-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-17"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>17</FONT></A></P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-7 sizset="43" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Diabetes prevalence and incidence</H3><br />
<P id=p-30 sizset="139" sizcache="32">In the Cuban national health system, the primary care doctor-nurse team is responsible for collecting health data for all residents in the neighbourhood of their catchment area (about 1500 individuals per team). One of the team activities organised by the health system is continuous assessment and risk evaluation (CARE, or Dispensarización in Spanish).<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-18-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-18"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>18</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-19-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-19"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>19</FONT></A> All households are visited at least once a year for a comprehensive health evaluation of the family, while patients with chronic diseases receive a visit at least once every three to six months. These health examinations covered 61.2% (n=595 1088) of the population in 1979,<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-20-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-20"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>20</FONT></A> 75.9% (n=7 918 647) in 1989,<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-20-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-20"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>20</FONT></A> and 98.2% (n=11 038 820) in 2009.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-21-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-21"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>21</FONT></A> We obtained data for diabetes prevalence and incidence from the CARE registries, spanning the time period of 1980-2009.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-20-3 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-20"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>20</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-21-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-21"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>21</FONT></A> These registries allow the monitoring of chronic disease trends, such as diabetes incidence or prevalence.</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-8 sizset="44" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Mortality</H3><br />
<P id=p-31 sizset="146" sizcache="32">We obtained annual, age adjusted rates of mortality per 100 000 people from the Cuban Ministry of Public Health. ICD-10 (international classification of diseases, 10th revision) codes were used for death from type 2 diabetes (E10-E14), coronary heart disease (I20-I25), stroke (I60-I69), cancer (C00-C97), and all causes for the period of 1980-2010. We used data from 1980 to examine possible trends unrelated to the economic crisis during the special period in 1991-95. The 1981 Cuban population census was used for age adjustment. Vital records in Cuba are essentially complete. Postmortem examinations in some hospitals include up to 85% of people coded as dying from cardiovascular disease, which provided considerable confidence in an accurate designation of the cause of death.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-22-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-22"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>22</FONT></A></P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-9 sizset="45" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Statistical analysis</H3><br />
<P id=p-32 sizset="147" sizcache="32">To illustrate the distributions of body mass index in the four surveys from Cienfuegos (in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2011), we used Stata SE version 12.1 to generate density plots through the Gaussian kernel function. To analyse changes in prevalence and mortality, joinpoint regression analysis was conducted using software developed by the Surveillance Research Program of the United States National Cancer Institute.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-23-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-23"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>23</FONT></A> This regression model allows identification of significant changes in linear trend slopes. The estimated annual change (%) was then computed for each mortality trend by fitting a regression line to the natural logarithm of the rates within each period or phase.</P><br />
<P id=p-33>We did not use this procedure to analyse diabetes incidence, owing to missing data from the years during the crisis. Because incidence estimates are inherently unstable, we enhanced visual presentation by constructing moving averages for each year with available data, using the incidence data from the previous, current, and following year.</P></DIV></DIV><br />
<DIV class="section results" id=sec-10 sizset="47" sizcache="37"><br />
<H2>Results</H2><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-11 sizset="47" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Risk factor trends</H3><br />
<P id=p-34 sizset="148" sizcache="32">From its lowest point in the mid-1990s, average daily intake of energy per capita increased monotonically, reaching pre-crisis levels in 2002 and levelling off in 2005 (fig 1<A class=xref-down-link id=xref-fig-1-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#F1"><SPAN><FONT color=#006990>⇓</FONT></SPAN></A>). On the other hand, physical activity had a slight downward trend after the mid-1990s, remaining stable from 2001, with more than half of the population being physically active. Although 80% of the population was classified as active in surveys conducted during the special period in 1991-95, this proportion fell steadily in the last decade, and is currently at 55% (fig 1). These population-wide changes in energy intake and physical activity were accompanied by large changes in body weight over this entire interval (figs 2<A class=xref-down-link id=xref-fig-2-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#F2"><SPAN><FONT color=#006990>⇓</FONT></SPAN></A> and 3<A class=xref-down-link id=xref-fig-3-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#F3"><SPAN><FONT color=#006990>⇓</FONT></SPAN></A>).</P><br />
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<DIV class=fig-inline sizset="152" sizcache="33"><A class="colorbox fragment-images initColorbox-processed cboxElement" title="Figure 1" href="http://www.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/640258/field_highwire_fragment_image_l/0/F1.medium.gif" rel=gallery-fragment-images jQuery1365644385218="4"><IMG src="http://www.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/640258/field_highwire_fragment_image_m/0/F1.medium.gif"></A><br />
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<DIV class=fig-caption sizset="48" sizcache="37"><br />
<P class=first-child id=p-35><STRONG>Fig 1</STRONG> Physical activity, dietary energy intake, and smoking in Cuba, 1980-2010. Red shaded area=period of economic crisis; blue shaded area=period of economic recovery. Physical activity data recorded in 1987, 1988, and 1994 obtained from Havana surveys; data recorded in 1995, 2001, and 2010 come from national surveys. *1 kcal=0.00418 MJ</P><br />
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<DIV class=fig-inline sizset="155" sizcache="33"><A class="colorbox fragment-images initColorbox-processed cboxElement" title="Figure 2" href="http://www.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/640259/field_highwire_fragment_image_l/0/F2.medium.gif" rel=gallery-fragment-images jQuery1365644385218="5"><IMG src="http://www.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/640259/field_highwire_fragment_image_m/0/F2.medium.gif"></A><br />
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<DIV class=fig-caption sizset="49" sizcache="37"><br />
<P class=first-child id=p-36><STRONG>Fig 2</STRONG> Distributions of body mass index as recorded by national surveys conducted in Cienfuegos in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010</P><br />
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<DIV class="fig pos-float  odd" id=F3 sizset="50" sizcache="37"><br />
<DIV class=fig-inline sizset="158" sizcache="33"><A class="colorbox fragment-images initColorbox-processed cboxElement" title="Figure 3" href="http://www.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/640260/field_highwire_fragment_image_l/0/F3.medium.gif" rel=gallery-fragment-images jQuery1365644385218="6"><IMG src="http://www.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/640260/field_highwire_fragment_image_m/0/F3.medium.gif"></A><br />
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<DIV class=fig-caption sizset="50" sizcache="37"><br />
<P class=first-child id=p-37><STRONG>Fig 3</STRONG> Prevalence of obesity and diabetes, incidence, and mortality in Cuba, 1980-2010. Red shaded area=period of economic crisis; blue shaded area=period of economic recovery. Diabetes prevalence increased by 2.93% per year from 1980 to 1997, and 6.27% per year from 1997 to 2010. Diabetes mortality increased by 5.85% per year from 1980 to 1989, but fell by 0.68% per year from 1989 to 1996 and 13.95% per year from 1996 to 2002, before increasing by 3.31% per year from 2002 to 2010 </P><br />
<DIV class="sb-div caption-clear"></DIV></DIV></DIV><br />
<P id=p-38>Smoking prevalence (fig 1) slowly decreased during the 1980s and 1990s (42% in 1984, 37% in 1995), before declining more rapidly in the 2000s (32% in 2001, 24% in 2010). The number of cigarettes consumed per capita decreased during and shortly after the crisis. In 1990, 1934 cigarettes per capita were consumed (fig 1). This number changed to 1572, 1196, and 1449 cigarettes per capita in 1993, 1997, and 1999, respectively. Cigarette consumption has since remained stable.</P><br />
<P id=p-39>Figure 2 depicts the distribution of body mass index from the Cienfuegos surveys of 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010 with kernel density plots of each year’s measurements. During the special period of 1991-95, there was a weight loss of 5.5 kg across the entire range of body mass index (that is, not only among obese people), with a mean reduction in body mass index of 1.5 units. After a period of economic recovery and stability, an increase in body mass index of 2.6 units was observed from 1995 to 2010; weight regain also occurred across the entire population, irrespective of body mass index. These distribution shifts in body mass index were consistent across surveys. The proportion of the population in the normal weight category decreased from 56.4% at the end of the special period in 1995 to 42.1% in 2010. At the same time, proportions in the overweight and obesity categories increased by 19.4%, from 33.5% in 1995 to 52.9% in 2010 (web appendix 3).</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-12 sizset="53" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Diabetes trends</H3><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-13 sizset="53" sizcache="37"><br />
<H4>Diabetes prevalence and incidence</H4><br />
<P id=p-40>Joinpoint regression analyses showed two different phases of diabetes prevalence (fig 3). The first phase had a slow and stable increase from 1980 (1.5 per 100 people) to 1997 (1.9 per 100 people), a total increase of 26.6% (2.9% per year). In the second phase, diabetes prevalence increased from 1.9 per 100 people in 1997 to 4.1 per 100 people in 2009 and 2010, a total increase of 115.8% (6.3% per year).</P><br />
<P id=p-41>Incidence of diabetes fluctuated widely (fig 3). For the decade before the crisis, incidence was stable, between 1980 (1.5 per 1000 people) and 1989 (1.8 per 1000 people). The only data point in the middle of the economic crisis showed a decrease in diabetes incidence, falling to 1.2 per 1000 people in 1992. For the years immediately after the crisis, incidence was lower than pre-crisis levels (1 per 1000 people in 1996 and 1997 <EM>v</EM> 1.4 per 1000 people in 1999). Sharp increases were observed from 2000 onwards, peaking in 2002 (2.2 per 1000 people) and 2009 (2.4 per 1000 people). Thus, overall diabetes incidence decreased by 53% from its peak in the pre-crisis years (1986) to its lowest point after the crisis (1996 and 1997). Subsequently, incidence rose by 140% from 1996 to 2009.</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-14 sizset="55" sizcache="37"><br />
<H4>Diabetes mortality</H4><br />
<P id=p-42>Joinpoint regression analysis of diabetes mortality showed four different phases (fig 3). The first phase, from 1980 to 1989 (pre-crisis years), was characterised by an increase of 60% (5.9% per year). The second phase from 1990 to 1996 overlapped with the special period in 1991-95, during which diabetes mortality stabilised (0.7% decrease per year). However, from 1996 to 2002, we recorded a decrease in diabetes mortality of 50% (13.95% per year). Finally, from 2002 onwards, mortality rose by 49% (3.31% per year; from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010), returning to pre-crisis rates.</P></DIV></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-15 sizset="56" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Mortality trends</H3><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-16 sizset="56" sizcache="37"><br />
<H4>Coronary disease mortality</H4><br />
<P id=p-43 sizset="160" sizcache="32">Mortality from coronary heart disease evolved in three phases (fig 4<A class=xref-down-link id=xref-fig-4-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#F4"><SPAN><FONT color=#006990>⇓</FONT></SPAN></A>). From 1980 to 1996, mortality fell consistently (reduction of 8.8%, 0.5% per year). After the crisis in 1996-2002, mortality decreased sharply by 34.4% (6.5% per year). After 2002, the rate of decline slowed to 7.4% (1.4% per year), similar to pre-crisis rates.</P><br />
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<DIV class=fig-inline sizset="162" sizcache="33"><A class="colorbox fragment-images initColorbox-processed cboxElement" title="Figure 4" href="http://www.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/640261/field_highwire_fragment_image_l/0/F4.medium.gif" rel=gallery-fragment-images jQuery1365644385218="7"><IMG src="http://www.bmj.com/highwire/filestream/640261/field_highwire_fragment_image_m/0/F4.medium.gif"></A><br />
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<DIV class=fig-caption sizset="57" sizcache="37"><br />
<P class=first-child id=p-44><STRONG>Fig 4</STRONG> Obesity prevalence and coronary heart disease, cancer and stroke mortality in Cuba (1980-2010). Red shaded area=period of economic crisis; blue shaded area=period of economic recovery; CHD=coronary heart disease. CHD mortality decreased by 0.50% per year from 1980 to 1996, 6.48% per year from 1996 to 2002, and 1.42% per year from 2002 to 2010. Cancer mortality decreased by 0.12% per year from 1980 to 1996, but increased by 0.47% per year from 1996 to 2010. Stroke mortality fell by 0.39% per year from 1980 to 2000, 5.03% per year from 2000 to 2004, and 0.01% per year from 2004 to 2010</P><br />
<DIV class="sb-div caption-clear"></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-17 sizset="58" sizcache="37"><br />
<H4>Stroke mortality</H4><br />
<P id=p-45>Mortality from stroke mirrored the pattern of mortality from coronary heart disease, with a modest decrease of 6.9% lasting from 1980 to 2000 (0.4% per year) and a sharp fall between 2000 and 2004 of 13.6% (5.3% per year). From 2004 to 2010, mortality fell by 1.3% (0.01% per year, similar to pre-crisis rates).</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-18 sizset="59" sizcache="37"><br />
<H4>Cancer mortality</H4><br />
<P id=p-46>Cancer mortality followed a distinctly different pattern to that observed in coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes, with two distinct phases (fig 4). From 1980 to 1996, a slight decrease of 2.4% in cancer mortality was observed (0.1% per year), which reverted to a slight increase of 5.4% in 1996-2010 (0.5% per year).</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-19 sizset="60" sizcache="37"><br />
<H4>All cause mortality</H4><br />
<P id=p-47>Mortality from all causes, as expected, was highly influenced by trends in coronary heart disease and stroke, showing three different phases (data not shown). A prolonged decrease in mortality of 1.7% from 1980 to 1996 (0.1% per year) was followed a sharp decline of 10.5% from 1996 to 2002 (2.9% per year). From 2002 to 2010, there has been a modest decrease of 2% (0.7% per year).</P></DIV></DIV></DIV><br />
<DIV class="section discussion" id=sec-20 sizset="61" sizcache="37"><br />
<H2>Discussion</H2><br />
<P id=p-48 sizset="164" sizcache="32">During the deepest period of the economic crisis in Cuba, lasting from 1991 to 1995, food was scarce and access to gas was greatly reduced, virtually eliminating motorised transport and causing the industrial and agricultural sectors to shift to manual intensive labour. This combination of food shortages and unavoidable increases in physical activity put the entire population in a negative energy balance, resulting in a population-wide weight loss of 4-5 kg.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-8-3 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-8"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>8</FONT></A> The decline in food availability was associated with a neuropathy outbreak in the adult population in 1993.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-24-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-24"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>24</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-25-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-25"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>25</FONT></A> The Cuban economy started recovering in 1996 with a sustained growth phase from 2000 onwards. Since 1996, physical activity has slightly declined. By 2002, energy intake had increased above pre-crisis levels. </P><br />
<P id=p-49>As a result of the above trends, by 2011, the Cuban population has regained enough weight to almost triple the obesity rates of 1995. This U shaped, population-wide pattern in body weight is historically unique because of several factors: the initial weight loss occurred in a population that had been well nourished previously, lasted for five years, and affected people at all initial levels of body mass index.</P><br />
<P id=p-50>Diabetes trends could have been substantially influenced by these population-wide changes in body weight. Diabetes prevalence surged from 1997 onwards, as weight started to rebound. Diabetes incidence decreased during the crisis, reaching its lowest point in 1996. The largest economic recovery saw diabetes incidence peaking in 2004 and 2009.</P><br />
<P id=p-51>Five years after the start of the economic crisis in 1996, an abrupt downward trend was observed in mortality from diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and all causes. This period lasted an additional six years, during which energy intake status gradually recovered and physical activity levels were progressively reduced; in 2002, mortality rates returned to the pre-crisis pattern. A particularly dramatic shift in diabetes mortality was observed: from 2002 to 2010, the annual increase in diabetes mortality was similar to that before the crisis. Moreover, declining rates of coronary heart disease and stroke slowed to annual decreasing rates similar to those before the crisis.</P><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-21 sizset="65" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Comparison with other studies</H3><br />
<P id=p-52 sizset="167" sizcache="32">The effect of high risk, preventive approaches on diabetes or cardiovascular mortality has been extensively studied and has reported conflicting and non-conclusive results. For example, the Look AHEAD clinical trial,<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-26-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-26"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>26</FONT></A> aimed at reducing cardiovascular risk associated with diabetes through weight reduction and exercise, has been prematurely terminated for lack of an effect on cardiovascular mortality. Other high risk approaches, such as the prevention and control of diabetes through massive screenings, has recently shown no improvements in diabetes, cardiovascular, or all cause mortality.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-27-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-27"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>27</FONT></A> Overall, it seems that high risk preventive approaches have either not produced a beneficial effect on cardiovascular mortality or diabetes control and mortality, or have been unsuccessful in reducing risk to a sufficient degree to warrant a conclusion. </P><br />
<P id=p-53 sizset="169" sizcache="32">The complementary pathway to disease prevention, the population approach, has received scant attention in the literature. To our knowledge, the effect of population-wide weight regain on diabetes and cardiovascular mortality has not been previously studied. Research on population-wide interventions has so far only studied modelling studies<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-28-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-28"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>28</FONT></A> or small scale interventions.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-14-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-14"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>14</FONT></A></P><br />
<P id=p-54 sizset="171" sizcache="32">Research on weight cycling, described in obese individuals undergoing repeated attempts at weight loss followed by weight regain, has reported conflicting results: either an increase<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-29-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-29"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>29</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-30-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-30"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>30</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-31-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-31"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>31</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-32-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-32"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>32</FONT></A> or no association with general mortality.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-33-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-33"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>33</FONT></A> Specifically, no association between weight cycling and diabetes incidence has been recorded.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-34-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-34"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>34</FONT></A> <A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-35-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-35"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>35</FONT></A> Since individual weight cycling usually refers to multiple weight changes over an extended period, those results might have limited relevance for the population experience of a single cycle of weight gain, loss, and regain that we report here.</P><br />
<P id=p-55 sizset="178" sizcache="32">As shown in our results, smoking levels were affected by the crisis. The number of cigarettes smoked per capita in Cuba decreased in the crisis years, only to slightly recover afterwards and remain stable thereafter. Smoking prevalence has continuously decreased during the past 15 years in Cuba. The role of tobacco in the development and control of diabetes has been recently studied; both active and passive smoking are associated with increased incidence.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-36-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-36"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>36</FONT></A> This association is dose dependent<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-37-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-37"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>37</FONT></A>; therefore, the decrease in smoking in Cuba during the crisis may have contributed to the decline in diabetes incidence in those years. The effects of decreasing smoking rates should drive down the rates of diabetes incidence and mortality in the long term. In this case, the observed decline in smoking rates during and after the crisis should cause a decrease in diabetes mortality in the last decade of our study. The increase in diabetes mortality from year 2002 seems to rule out smoking as a major confounding factor in the observed trends, although it could be masking the true size of the effect of changes in dietary and physical activity on diabetes mortality. This consideration is analogous for coronary heart disease and stroke, which should fall as smoking prevalence declines.</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-22 sizset="69" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Strengths and limitations of study</H3><br />
<P id=p-56 sizset="180" sizcache="32">Our study presents the first observation of a population-wide event of this magnitude and its subsequent effects on public health. Population-wide shifts in other risk factors, such as cholesterol and blood pressure, have been described in large scale prevention interventions, for example, the North Karelia and FINRISK studies.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-38-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-38"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>38</FONT></A> In the Cuban experience, the changes in population-wide body weight were adaptive responses to dietary energy availability and energy expenditure; therefore, it is not possible to separate these two effects on mortality patterns.</P><br />
<P id=p-57 sizset="181" sizcache="32">Other unique effects of this experience should also be considered. Problems with food production in Cuba led to the creation and expansion of urban agriculture, allowing citizens to buy fresh produce directly from farmers. Large public health campaigns in schools and communities are currently in place using community gardening as an effort to improve nutrition education and diet quality.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-39-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-39"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>39</FONT></A> During the crisis, the Cuban government acquired and distributed more than one million bicycles, which contributed to the population-wide increase in physical activity.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-39-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-39"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>39</FONT></A> These unique features of the Cuban experience make it to that degree non-comparable with other examples of economic crises. For example, previous research on the health consequences of the Great Depression in the US showed that banking suspensions (as a proxy for large scale economic decline) was not followed by a decrease in mortality.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-40-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-40"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>40</FONT></A></P><br />
<P id=p-58 sizset="184" sizcache="32">As noted previously, controversy persists over the net benefit of generalised weight loss in modern populations.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-41-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-41"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>41</FONT></A> As articulated by Geoffrey Rose,<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-15-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-15"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>15</FONT></A> a key element of a prevention strategy for diseases in populations with near universal exposure to the causal risk factor is a downward shift in the overall mean. The data presented here confirm this theory. The Cuban experience shows that within a relatively short period, modest weight loss in the whole population can have a profound effect on the overall burden of diabetes. In Cuba, weight loss also had a major effect on trends in cardiovascular diseases and all cause mortality. Although obesity is an important risk factor for cancer,<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-42-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-42"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>42</FONT></A> only modest changes in cancer mortality were observed.</P><br />
<P id=p-59 sizset="187" sizcache="32">Our study has some important limitations. We had no data on diabetes incidence for most crisis years, and rates in the subsequent years showed wide fluctuations. Data for diabetes mortality were available for the whole study period, but might not have adequately represented the health burden of diabetes. Death certificates are subject to misclassification bias, although the parallel trends in cardiovascular and all cause mortality rule out substantial shifts away from diabetes to major illnesses that occurred at the same time—the most common of which would have been vascular in cause. The cyclic pattern of the observed trends makes a bias less likely, owing to widespread changes in coding of death certificates. Estimating dietary intake from food disappearance data has known limitations, but data from available dietary surveys for the years before, during, and after the special period were consistent with food disappearance data from the Food and Agriculture Organization.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-8-4 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-8"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>8</FONT></A></P></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-23 sizset="73" sizcache="37"><br />
<H3>Conclusions and policy implications</H3><br />
<P id=p-60 sizset="188" sizcache="32">We found that a population-wide loss of 4-5 kg in weight in a relatively healthy population was accompanied by diabetes mortality falling by half and mortality from coronary heart disease falling by a third. Furthermore, a rebound in body weight was associated with an increased diabetes incidence and mortality, and a deceleration of the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease. So far, no country or regional population has successfully reduced the distribution of body mass index or reduced the prevalence of obesity through public health campaigns or targeted treatment programmes.<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-16-2 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-16"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>16</FONT></A> The latest reports in the US have documented a plateau in the epidemic curve of obesity in adults,<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-43-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-43"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>43</FONT></A> children, and adolescents,<A class=xref-bibr id=xref-ref-44-1 href="http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f1515#ref-44"><FONT color=#006990 size=1>44</FONT></A> but the public health effects of these changes have not yet been reported. It is therefore not possible to compare the Cuba findings with other populations. Therefore, the generalisability of our findings is uncertain. Nonetheless, these data are a notable illustration of the potential health benefits of reversing the global obesity epidemic.</P><br />
<DIV class=style4 id=boxed-text-1 sizset="74" sizcache="37"><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-24 sizset="74" sizcache="37"><br />
<H4>What is already known on this topic</H4><br />
<UL class="list-simple " id=list-1 sizset="74" sizcache="37"><br />
<LI id=list-item-1 sizset="74" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-61>The health effects of population-wide changes in body weight on a well nourished population with a functioning universal health system is unknown</P><br />
<LI id=list-item-2 sizset="75" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-62>Large reductions in diabetes and cardiovascular mortality were noted after the population-wide weight loss in Cuba, during the economic crisis of the early 1990s</P></LI></UL></DIV><br />
<DIV class=subsection id=sec-25 sizset="76" sizcache="37"><br />
<H4>What this study adds</H4><br />
<UL class="list-simple " id=list-2 sizset="76" sizcache="37"><br />
<LI id=list-item-3 sizset="76" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-63>Body weight regain in the Cuban population was associated with an increase in diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as a deceleration in the previously declining rates of cardiovascular death</P><br />
<LI id=list-item-4 sizset="77" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-64>Small losses in body weight and prevention of body weight gain across the population could be a critical strategy in the prevention of non-communicable diseases</P></LI></UL></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><br />
<DIV class="section notes" id=notes-2 sizset="78" sizcache="37"><br />
<H2>Notes</H2><br />
<P id=p-71><STRONG>Cite this as:</STRONG> <EM>BMJ</EM> 2013;346:f1515</P></DIV><br />
<DIV class="section fn-group" id=fn-group-1 sizset="79" sizcache="37"><br />
<H2>Footnotes</H2><br />
<UL sizset="79" sizcache="37"><br />
<LI class=fn id=fn-1 sizset="79" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-65>We would like to acknowledge our great respect and admiration for the Cuban people who faced extremely difficult social and economic challenges during the special period—and by making common cause against this tragedy held up with courage and dignity. This tragedy was “man made” by international politics and should never happen again to any population.</P><br />
<LI class=fn-participating-researchers id=fn-2 sizset="80" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-66>Contributors: MF and RC contributed to the original design. PO, MB, and AM organised and conducted data collection. UB conducted the statistical analyses. MF, UB, and RC carried on the systematic literature research. MF, UB, PO, BC, JFK, and RC were active in the interpretation of results. The manuscript was drafted by MF, UB, JFK, and RC, and reviewed by all authors. All authors have approved the final report. All authors had full access to the data in the study and take responsibility for its integrity and the accuracy of the data analysis. MF is the guarantor for this study.</P><br />
<LI class=fn-financial-disclosure id=fn-3 sizset="81" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-67>Funding: No funding sources had any role in the decision to submit this manuscript or in its writing.</P><br />
<LI class=fn-conflict id=fn-4 sizset="82" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-68 sizset="191" sizcache="32">Competing interests: All authors have completed the Unified Competing Interest form at <A href="http://www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf"><FONT color=#006990>www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf</FONT></A> (available on request from the corresponding author) and declare: no support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous 3 years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work. </P><br />
<LI class=fn id=fn-5 sizset="83" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-69>Ethical approval: The ethics committee of the University of Medical Sciences, Cienfuegos, approved protocols.</P><br />
<LI class=fn id=fn-6 sizset="84" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-70>Data sharing: No additional data available.</P></LI></UL></DIV><br />
<DIV class=license id=license-1 sizset="85" sizcache="37"><br />
<P id=p-1 sizset="192" sizcache="32">This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: <A href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/"><FONT color=#006990>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/</FONT></A>.</P></DIV><br />
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<UL><br />
<LI>..link between diabetes prevalence and population-wide body changes<br />
<LI>..incidence and death rates from type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease<br />
<LI>..cancer and all-causes</LI></UL>Cuba is a nation with a long history of public health and cardiovascular research, which provided the data needed from primary chronic disease registries, cardiovascular studies, and national health surveys. The Cuban population has seen economic and social changes directly associated with physical activity and food intake from 1980 to 2010.<BR><BR>The data used for the analysis included participants between the ages of 15 and 74 years and information on:<br />
<UL><br />
<LI>height<br />
<LI>weight<br />
<LI>energy intake<br />
<LI>smoking<br />
<LI>physical activity</LI></UL><br />
<H2 class=blue_sea_paddingtop>Dramatic Drop in Rates Seen Just From This Instance</H2><B>Changes in physical activity and energy intake went hand-in-hand with changes in body weight. </B>For example, between 1991 and 1995 there was a 5kg reduction on average, while between 1195 and 2010 a weight rebound was seen of 9kg.<BR><BR>The incidence of smoking fell during the 1980s and 1990s and decreased even more quickly in the 2000s.<BR><BR>The prevalence of diabetes continued to rise from 1997 as the population started to gain weight. It then decreased during the weight loss period, followed by another increase until it peaked in the weight regain years.<BR><BR>A sudden downward cycle in deaths from diabetes was seen five years after the beginning of the weight loss period, in 1996. This went on for about six years during which energy consumption status slowly recovered and physical activity levels decreased. In 2002, death rates went back to pre-crisis figures and a significant increase in diabetes deaths was seen.<BR><BR><A title="What Is a Stroke? What Causes a Stroke?" href="http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/7624.php">Stroke</A> and coronary heart disease death rates slowly dropped from 1980 to 1996 with a bigger decrease occurring after the weight-loss phase. During the weight regain phase, these declines stopped.<BR><BR>The investigators concluded that the &#8220;Cuban experienced in 1980-2010&#8243; showed that <B>within a short period, noteworthy weight loss in the whole population can greatly affect the overall burden of deaths from diabetes and cardiovascular disease.</B><BR><BR>They point out that findings show that a 5kg population-wide weight loss &#8220;would reduce diabetes mortality by half and CHD mortality by a third&#8221;, however, these findings are an unusual circumstance from this one experience. On the other hand, they do provide a &#8220;notable illustration of the potential health benefits of reversing the global <A title="How Much Should I Weigh?" href="http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/info/obesity/how-much-should-i-weigh.php">obesity</A> epidemic&#8221;.<BR><BR>Previous research has shown that there is a <A href="http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/247871.php">link between diabetes and heart disease.</A> Diabetics are more likely to develop hardened arteries than non-diabetics.<BR><BR>A separate study demonstrated the association between <A href="http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/251492.php">sitting for long periods and developing heart disease and diabetes</A>. Even for people who are physically active, sitting for long periods could raise the risk for both conditions.<BR><BR>Written by Kelly Fitzgerald <BR><BR>.</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></DD></p>
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		<title>[통계] 2012년 WHO 세계보건 통계(고혈압, 당뇨 등)</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jan 2013 12:12:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[건강정책]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WHO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Health Statistics 2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[고혈압]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당뇨]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[사망률]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[출생률]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[통계]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[World Health Statistics 2012http://www.who.int/healthinfo/EN_WHS2012_Full.pdfWorld Health Statistics 2012 contains WHO’s annual compilation of health-related data for its 194 Member States, and includes a summary of the progress made towards [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><P>World Health Statistics 2012<BR><A href="http://www.who.int/healthinfo/EN_WHS2012_Full.pdf"><BR>http://www.who.int/healthinfo/EN_WHS2012_Full.pdf</A></P><SPAN>World Health Statistics 2012 contains WHO’s annual compilation of health-related data for its 194 Member States, and includes a summary of the progress made towards achieving the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and associated targets. <BR>This year, it also includes highlight summaries on the topics of noncommunicable diseases, universal health coverage and civil registration coverage.<BR></SPAN><BR>DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT<br />
<H5 class=section_head3>Available in 3 languages</H5><br />
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<DIV class="field body"><br />
<P>New data highlight increases in hypertension, diabetes incidence</P><br />
<P>News release</P><br />
<P>16 MAY 2012 | GENEVA &#8211; The World health statistics 2012 report, released today, puts the spotlight on the growing problem of the noncommunicable diseases burden.</P><br />
<P>One in three adults worldwide, according to the report, has raised blood pressure – a condition that causes around half of all deaths from stroke and heart disease. One in 10 adults has diabetes.</P><br />
<P>“This report is further evidence of the dramatic increase in the conditions that trigger heart disease and other chronic illnesses, particularly in low- and middle-income countries,” says Dr Margaret Chan, Director-General of WHO. “In some African countries, as much as half the adult population has high blood pressure.”</P><br />
<P>For the first time, the World Health Organization’s annual statistics report includes information from 194 countries on the percentage of men and women with raised blood pressure and blood glucose levels.</P><br />
<P>In high-income countries, widespread diagnosis and treatment with low-cost medication have significantly reduced mean blood pressure across populations – and this has contributed to a reduction in deaths from heart disease. In Africa, however, more than 40% (and up to 50%) of adults in many countries are estimated to have high blood pressure. Most of these people remain undiagnosed, although many of these cases could be treated with low-cost medications, which would significantly reduce the risk of death and disability from heart disease and stroke.</P><br />
<P>Also included for the first time in the World health statistics 2012 are data on people with raised blood glucose levels. While the global average prevalence is around 10%, up to one third of populations in some Pacific Island countries have this condition. Left untreated, diabetes can lead to cardiovascular disease, blindness and kidney failure.</P><br />
<P>Obesity another major issue</P><br />
<P>“In every region of the world, obesity doubled between 1980 and 2008,” says Dr Ties Boerma, Director of the Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems at WHO. “Today, half a billion people (12% of the world’s population) are considered obese.”</P><br />
<P>The highest obesity levels are in the WHO Region of the Americas (26% of adults) and the lowest in the WHO South-East Asia Region (3% obese). In all parts of the world, women are more likely to be obese than men, and thus at greater risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and some cancers.</P><br />
<P>Noncommunicable diseases currently cause almost two thirds of all deaths worldwide. Global concern about the rise in numbers of deaths from heart and lung disease, diabetes and cancer prompted the United Nations to hold a high-level meeting on noncommunicable diseases in New York in September 2011.</P><br />
<P>The World Health Assembly, to be held in Geneva from 21 to 26 May 2012, will review progress made since that meeting and agree on next steps. Work is currently under way to develop a global monitoring framework and a set of voluntary targets for prevention and control of these diseases.</P><br />
<P>Published annually by WHO, the World health statistics is the most comprehensive publication of health-related global statistics available. It contains data from 194 countries on a range of mortality, disease and health system indicators including life expectancy, illnesses and deaths from a range of diseases, health services and treatments, financial investment in health, as well as risk factors and behaviours that affect health.</P><br />
<P>Some key trends in this year’s report are:</P><br />
<P>Maternal mortality: In 20 years, the number of maternal deaths has decreased from more than 540 000 deaths in 1990 to less than 290 000 in 2010 – a decline of 47%. One third of these maternal deaths occur in just two countries – India with 20% of the global total and Nigeria with 14%.</P><br />
<P>10 year trends for causes of child death: Data from the years 2000 to 2010 show how public health advancements have helped save children’s lives in the past decade. The world has made significant progress, having reduced the number of child deaths from almost 10 million children aged less than 5 years in 2000 to 7.6 million annual deaths in 2010. Declines in numbers of deaths from diarrhoeal disease and measles have been particularly striking.</P><br />
<P>Death registration: Only 34 countries (representing 15% of the world’s population) produce high-quality cause-of-death data. In low and middle-income countries, less than 10% of deaths are registered. For more information, please contact:</P><br />
<P>Fadéla Chaib</P><br />
<P>WHO Communications Officer and Spokesperson</P><br />
<P>Telephone: +41 22 791 32 28</P><br />
<P>Mobile: +41 79 475 55 56</P><br />
<P>E-mail: <A href="mailto:chaibf@who.int"><FONT color=#0988bb>chaibf@who.int</FONT></A></P></DIV>2012년 5월 16일 발간된 2012년 세계보건통계(World Health statistics) 보고서는 전 세계적으로&nbsp; 비감염성질환(non-communicable diseases)의 가 증가하고 있음을 나타내고 있다. 2008년 전 세계 5천 7백만명의 사망자 중에서 비감염성질환으로 인한 사망은 3천 6백만명(63%)으로 추정된다. 인구&nbsp; 집단의 성장과 평균수명의 연장은 노인인구의 숫자를 증가시키고 이로 인해 비감염성질환으로의 사망이 늘어나고 있다.<BR>&nbsp; 보고서에 의하면 전 세계 성인의 1/3이 뇌졸중 및 심장질환의 원인이 되는 고혈압에 해당되며, 성인 10명 중 1명은 당뇨병을 앓고 있다. WHO 사무총장 마가렛 찬(Margaret Chan)은 이번 보고서가 특히 저소득 국가들에서 심장질환 및 만성질환을 유발하는 위험요인에 큰 증가가 있음을 나타내는 근거라고 언급하며, 일부 아프리카 국가들의 경우 성인인구의 절반 이상이 고혈압을 앓고 있다고 밝혔다. <BR>&nbsp; 혈압의 증가는 뇌졸중으로 인한 사망의 약 51%, 심장질환으로 인한 사망의 약 45%의 원인이 되는 높은 위험요인이다. 이는 2004년 기준 7백 5십만명의 사망에 직접적인 원인이 되었으며 전 세계 총&nbsp; 사망원인의 12.8%를 차지한다. <BR>&nbsp; 고소득 국가들에서 광범위한 진단 및 치료는 인구집단의 혈압을 감소시키고, 이는 심장질환 사망&nbsp;&nbsp; 감소에 기여하였다. 그러나 아프리카 지역의 많은 국가들에서 성인의 40% 이상이 고혈압으로 추정되며 이러한 수치는 증가추세에 있다(Figure 1). 이러한 사례 중 다수가 저비용으로 치료가능 하지만, 이들 중 대다수는 진단조차 받지 못하고 있는 상태이며 이는 심장질환 및 뇌졸중으로 인한 사망 및 장애&nbsp;&nbsp; 위험에 큰 영향을 끼친다.<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <BR>&nbsp; 당뇨병의 경우, 전 세계 평균 유병률이 약 10%인 반면에 태평양 섬 국가들에서는 인구의 1/3이 당뇨병에 해당한다. 이들을 치료하지 않은 채로 방치한다면 당뇨병은 심혈관질환, 실명, 신장질환을 유발할 수 있다. 전 세계적으로 2백 8십만명이 매년 과체중 또는 비만의 결과로 사망한다. 과체중 또는 비만은 심장질환 및 뇌졸중, 제2형 당뇨병 및 다른 암들의 위험을 증가시킨다. <BR>&nbsp; 1980년에서 2008년간 전 세계의 비만 유병률(BMI ≥30kg/㎡)은 거의 두 배 가량 증가하였다(Figure 2).<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <BR>&nbsp; 2008년 전 세계 남성의 10%, 여성의 14%가 비만(약 5억명)으로 나타났으며 이는 1980년 남성 5%, 여성 8%에 비교하여 크게 증가한 수치이다. <BR>&nbsp; 가장 높은 비만수치는 WHO 아메리카 지역(성인의 26%)이었으며 가장 낮은 지역은 WHO 동남아시아 지역(성인의 3%)으로 나타났다. 전 세계 모든 지역에서 여성이 남성에 비해 비만 가능성이 높았으며, 당뇨병, 심혈관질환 및 일부 암에서도 위험이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 비감염성질환은 현재 사망원인의 2/3을 차지하고 있으며, 전 세계는 현재 심폐질환, 당뇨병, 암 등으로 인한 사망자수 증가에 우려하고 있다.<BR>&nbsp; 세계보건통계는 194개 회원국으로부터 사망률, 기대수명을 포함한 보건지표들과 건강에 영향을 주는 위험요인과 행동뿐만 아니라 질병의 사망과 이환, 보건 서비스 및 치료, 보건관련 재정적 투자 등을 모두 포함하고 있다. 올해 세계보건통계에서 나타난 몇 가지 주요 추세는 다음과 같다.<br />
<P>■ 모성 사망률 : 20년 동안 모성사망자 수는 1990년 54만명에서 2010년 29만명 이하로 약 47%&nbsp;&nbsp; 감소하였다. 이러한 모성사망의 1/3은 주로 두 국가에서 발생하고 있는데 인도는 숫자의 20%, 나이지리아는 14%를 차지한다. <BR>■ 아동사망 원인의 10년 추이 : 2000년에서 2010년의 자료를 보면 지난 10년간 공중보건의 발전이 아동의 생명을 구하는데 도움이 되고 있음을 보여준다. 2000년 5세 이하 어린이 사망자 수가 약 1천만명에서 2010년 연간 사망자수 7백 6십만명으로 감소하는 큰 발전을 이루었다. 특히 설사관련 질환과 홍역으로 인한 사망자수의 감소가 특히 눈에 띈다. <BR>■ 사망 등록: 전 세계 34개국(전체 인구의 15%)에서 질 높은 사망원인 자료를 생산하고 있으며, 저소득 국가에서는 전체 사망의 10% 이하만 등록되고 있다.</P><A href="http://www.who.int/healthinfo/EN_WHS2012_Full.pdf"></A></p>
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		<title>[비만] 어린이 비만, 다른 심혈관계 위험 요인, 그리고 조숙 사망</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Feb 2010 11:30:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[식품 · 의약품]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[고지혈증]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[고혈압]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당 불내성(glucose tolerance)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당뇨]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[비만]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[조숙 사망]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[체질량지수(BMI)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[콜레스테롤]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[혈압]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[어린이 비만, 다른 심혈관계 위험 요인, 그리고 조숙 사망1945년~1985년에 태어난&#160;당뇨병이 없는 American Indian 어린이&#160; 4857명의 cohort&#160;&#160;연구결과가 NEJM 최신호에 발표되었습니다.체질량지수(BMI), 당 불내성(glucose tolerance), 혈압, 콜레스테롤 수치에 따른 내부적인 원인에 [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><P>어린이 비만, 다른 심혈관계 위험 요인, 그리고 조숙 사망<BR><BR>1945년~1985년에 태어난&nbsp;당뇨병이 없는 American Indian 어린이&nbsp; 4857명의 cohort&nbsp;&nbsp;연구결과가 NEJM 최신호에 발표되었습니다.<BR><BR>체질량지수(BMI), 당 불내성(glucose tolerance), 혈압, 콜레스테롤 수치에 따른 내부적인 원인에 의한&nbsp;조숙사망을 예측하였습니다.<BR><BR>그 결과 체질량지수(BMI), 당 불내성(glucose tolerance), 혈압과 내부적인 원인에 의한 조숙사망률은 아주 강한 연관관계가 있다는 사실이 밝혀졌습니다.<BR><BR>반면 어린이의 고지혈증(hypercholesterolemia)은 내부적인 원인에 의한 조숙사망률과 상관관계가 없는 것으로 밝혀졌습니다.<BR><BR>논문의 전문은 아래 내용과 첨부파일을 참조하시기 바랍니다.<BR><BR>한편 호주 멜버른 모나시 대학의 폴 오브라이언 박사팀이 최근 미국의사협회저널에 실은 보고서에서 &#8220;비만인 경우 위밴드수술을 받는 것이 체중 감량에 더욱 크고 지속적인 효과를 나타내는 것으로 나타났다&#8221;고 주장했다는 뉴스를&nbsp;맨 아래에&nbsp;첨부합니다.<BR><BR>======================================</P><br />
<DIV align=center><B><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=+2>Childhood Obesity, Other Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and Premature Death</FONT></B><BR></DIV><!-- AUTHOR_DISPLAY --><br />
<CENTER><FONT size=+1><I>Paul W. Franks, Ph.D., Robert L. Hanson, M.D., M.P.H., William C. Knowler, M.D., Dr.P.H., Maurice L. Sievers, M.D., Peter H. Bennett, M.B., F.R.C.P., and Helen C. Looker, M.B., B.S.</I></FONT></CENTER><br />
<P><BR><STRONG><FONT size=4>ABSTRACT</FONT></STRONG> </P><br />
<P><FONT face="arial, helvetica"><I>Background</I> The effect of childhood risk factors for cardiovascular<SUP> </SUP>disease on adult mortality is poorly understood.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><I>Methods</I> In a cohort of 4857 American Indian children without<SUP> </SUP>diabetes (mean age, 11.3 years; 12,659 examinations) who were<SUP> </SUP>born between 1945 and 1984, we assessed whether body-mass index<SUP> </SUP>(BMI), glucose tolerance, and blood pressure and cholesterol<SUP> </SUP>levels predicted premature death. Risk factors were standardized<SUP> </SUP>according to sex and age. Proportional-hazards models were used<SUP> </SUP>to assess whether each risk factor was associated with time<SUP> </SUP>to death occurring before 55 years of age. Models were adjusted<SUP> </SUP>for baseline age, sex, birth cohort, and Pima or Tohono O&#8217;odham<SUP> </SUP>Indian heritage.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><I>Results</I> There were 166 deaths from endogenous causes (3.4% of<SUP> </SUP>the cohort) during a median follow-up period of 23.9 years.<SUP> </SUP>Rates of death from endogenous causes among children in the<SUP> </SUP>highest quartile of BMI were more than double those among children<SUP> </SUP>in the lowest BMI quartile (incidence-rate ratio, 2.30; 95%<SUP> </SUP>confidence interval [CI], 1.46 to 3.62). Rates of death from<SUP> </SUP>endogenous causes among children in the highest quartile of<SUP> </SUP>glucose intolerance were 73% higher than those among children<SUP> </SUP>in the lowest quartile (incidence-rate ratio, 1.73; 95% CI,<SUP> </SUP>1.09 to 2.74). No significant associations were seen between<SUP> </SUP>rates of death from endogenous or external causes and childhood<SUP> </SUP>cholesterol levels or systolic or diastolic blood-pressure levels<SUP> </SUP>on a continuous scale, although childhood hypertension was significantly<SUP> </SUP>associated with premature death from endogenous causes (incidence-rate<SUP> </SUP>ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.24).<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><I>Conclusions</I> Obesity, glucose intolerance, and hypertension in<SUP> </SUP>childhood were strongly associated with increased rates of premature<SUP> </SUP>death from endogenous causes in this population. In contrast,<SUP> </SUP>childhood hypercholesterolemia was not a major predictor of<SUP> </SUP>premature death from endogenous causes.<SUP> </SUP><br />
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<p><P>Despite recent increases in life expectancy, the rising global<SUP> </SUP>prevalence of obesity may reverse this trend.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R1"><SUP>1</SUP></A> The rising rates<SUP> </SUP>and increasingly early onset of other chronic diseases such<SUP> </SUP>as type 2 diabetes may also affect mortality rates.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R2"><SUP>2</SUP></A><SUP> </SUP></P><br />
<P>Cardiovascular risk factors are common in children.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R3"><SUP>3</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R4"><SUP>4</SUP></A> Although<SUP> </SUP>early-onset diabetes has been shown to raise mortality rates,<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R2"><SUP>2</SUP></A> and the relation between cardiovascular risk factors during<SUP> </SUP>adulthood and early death is well defined,<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R5"><SUP>5</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R6"><SUP>6</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R7"><SUP>7</SUP></A> little is known<SUP> </SUP>about the way in which cardiovascular risk factors that are<SUP> </SUP>present during childhood affect life span. Defining such relationships<SUP> </SUP>may help predict the long-term human and economic costs of cardiovascular<SUP> </SUP>risk factors in childhood and might justify interventions that<SUP> </SUP>are intended to improve health and reduce the rates of premature<SUP> </SUP>death.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>In this study, we assessed the extent to which obesity, glucose<SUP> </SUP>intolerance, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia in children<SUP> </SUP>without diabetes predicted premature death (defined as death<SUP> </SUP>before 55 years of age) in American Indians from Arizona.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><FONT face="arial, helvetica" size=+1><STRONG>Methods</STRONG></FONT><br />
<P><STRONG>Study Population</STRONG><br />
<P>We invited residents in a well-defined geographic area of the<SUP> </SUP>Gila River Indian Community in Arizona, most of whom were Pima<SUP> </SUP>or Tohono O&#8217;odham Indians,<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R8"><SUP>8</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R9"><SUP>9</SUP></A> to participate in a longitudinal<SUP> </SUP>study of diabetes and related disorders. Pima or Tohono O&#8217;odham<SUP> </SUP>Indian heritage was defined by the heritage of each of the child&#8217;s<SUP> </SUP>parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents, as reported by<SUP> </SUP>the parents of the participating children. Included in the study<SUP> </SUP>were 4857 children and adolescents (5 to <20 years of age)<SUP> </SUP>who had at least 4/8 Pima or Tohono O&#8217;odham Indian heritage,<SUP> </SUP>did not have diabetes, and underwent one or more research examinations<SUP> </SUP>between February 1966 and December 2003. Participants were born<SUP> </SUP>between 1945 and 1984 and resided on the reservation during<SUP> </SUP>the study. Participants who were 18 years of age or older gave<SUP> </SUP>written informed consent; those younger than 18 years of age<SUP> </SUP>gave written assent and a parent or guardian gave written informed<SUP> </SUP>consent. The institutional review board of the National Institute<SUP> </SUP>of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases approved the study.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><STRONG>Study Examinations</STRONG><br />
<P>We assessed the extent to which childhood body-mass index (BMI),<SUP> </SUP>2-hour plasma glucose level during a 75-g oral glucose-tolerance<SUP> </SUP>test, and blood pressure and total cholesterol levels predicted<SUP> </SUP>premature death. The baseline examination was the first examination<SUP> </SUP>at which all these variables were measured. The analyses included<SUP> </SUP>data from the date of the baseline examination until the person&#8217;s<SUP> </SUP>death, the person&#8217;s 55th birthday, or the end of 2003, whichever<SUP> </SUP>came first. Vital status was ascertained as of December 31,<SUP> </SUP>2003. Death records for community residents were maintained<SUP> </SUP>throughout the study period. Copies of death certificates were<SUP> </SUP>obtained. The underlying cause of death was classified as endogenous<SUP> </SUP>or external. We defined deaths due to endogenous causes as those<SUP> </SUP>in which the proximate cause was disease or self-inflicted injury,<SUP> </SUP>such as acute alcohol intoxication or drug use, and deaths due<SUP> </SUP>to external causes as those that resulted from such causes as<SUP> </SUP>accidents or homicide. These definitions are consistent with<SUP> </SUP>those used in previous mortality studies undertaken in this<SUP> </SUP>cohort.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R10"><SUP>10</SUP></A> The cause of death was determined from a review of<SUP> </SUP>available clinical autopsy records and death certificates. (For<SUP> </SUP>a list of the specific causes of death and the corresponding<SUP> </SUP><I>International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision</I> [ICD-9]<SUP> </SUP>codes, see the <A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485/DC1">Supplementary Appendix</A>, available with the full<SUP> </SUP>text of this article at NEJM.org.)<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>All participants underwent a 75-g oral glucose-tolerance test;<SUP> </SUP>results were interpreted according to World Health Organization<SUP> </SUP>diagnostic criteria.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R11"><SUP>11</SUP></A> We considered diabetes to be present<SUP> </SUP>if the fasting plasma glucose concentration was more than 7.0<SUP> </SUP>mmol per liter (126 mg per deciliter), if the 2-hour plasma<SUP> </SUP>glucose concentration was 11.1 mmol per liter (200 mg per deciliter)<SUP> </SUP>or more, or if a previous clinical diagnosis was documented.<SUP> </SUP>Blood pressure was measured and standard anthropometric data<SUP> </SUP>were obtained while participants were wearing lightweight clothing<SUP> </SUP>and no shoes; the data were collected by trained study personnel.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R8"><SUP>8</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R9"><SUP>9</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R12"><SUP>12</SUP></A> No measures of puberty were available. Blood assays were<SUP> </SUP>performed as described previously.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R8"><SUP>8</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R9"><SUP>9</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R12"><SUP>12</SUP></A> Alcohol dependence<SUP> </SUP>in adulthood (for which data were available from 2672 of the<SUP> </SUP>participants) was estimated with the use of the CAGE questionnaire.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R13"><SUP>13</SUP></A><SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><STRONG>Statistical Analysis</STRONG><br />
<P>Analyses were performed with the use of SAS software, version<SUP> </SUP>9.1 (SAS Institute). The characteristics of the participants<SUP> </SUP>are presented as arithmetic means (±SD) or, in the case<SUP> </SUP>of characteristics with skewed distributions, as medians and<SUP> </SUP>ranges. The z scores, which were standardized within sex and<SUP> </SUP>1-year age strata, were computed for use in regression analyses.<SUP> </SUP>Age-standardized and sex-standardized incidence was calculated<SUP> </SUP>by the direct method with the use of the total study population<SUP> </SUP>as the reference group. Incidence-rate ratios were calculated<SUP> </SUP>from the incidence data with the use of Poisson regression controlled<SUP> </SUP>for age, sex, and Pima or Tohono O&#8217;odham Indian heritage. For<SUP> </SUP>incidence analyses, follow-up was truncated at 55 years of age,<SUP> </SUP>since there were few person-years beyond that point. Cox proportional-hazards<SUP> </SUP>models were used to test for associations between the baseline<SUP> </SUP>childhood risk factors and time to death, with adjustment for<SUP> </SUP>baseline age, sex, Pima or Tohono O&#8217;odham Indian heritage, and<SUP> </SUP>birth year, since birth year was correlated with many variables<SUP> </SUP>of interest (e.g., r=0.36 for the correlation between BMI and<SUP> </SUP>birth year). We tested the validity of the proportionality assumption<SUP> </SUP>for each variable by including a time-dependent interaction<SUP> </SUP>term in the baseline models.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R14"><SUP>14</SUP></A> When this assumption was violated,<SUP> </SUP>stratified proportional-hazards models were fitted and a summarized<SUP> </SUP>incidence-rate ratio was calculated across strata; no material<SUP> </SUP>differences in death rates were observed across sex and baseline-age<SUP> </SUP>strata (data not shown).<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><FONT face="arial, helvetica" size=+1><STRONG>Results</STRONG></FONT><br />
<P><STRONG>Premature Death among Study Participants</STRONG><br />
<P><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#T1">Table 1</A> shows the baseline characteristics of the participants.<SUP> </SUP>During the follow-up period, 559 of the 4857 participants (11.5%)<SUP> </SUP>died before they reached 55 years of age. A total of 166 deaths<SUP> </SUP>were from endogenous causes: 59 were attributed to alcoholic<SUP> </SUP>liver disease, 22 to cardiovascular disease, 21 to infections,<SUP> </SUP>12 to cancer, 10 to diabetes or diabetic nephropathy, 9 to acute<SUP> </SUP>alcoholic poisoning or drug overdose, and 33 to other causes<SUP> </SUP>(see the <A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485/DC1">Supplementary Appendix</A> for a list of ICD-9 codes).<SUP> </SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#T2">Table 2</A> shows the rates of premature death by 10-year age strata.<SUP> </SUP><br />
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<TD vAlign=top align=left><STRONG><B>Table 1.</B> </STRONG>Baseline Characteristics of the Participants and Prevalence of Death before 55 Years of Age.<br />
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<TD vAlign=top align=left><STRONG><B>Table 2.</B> </STRONG>Premature Death among Study Participants, According to Age at Study Entry.<br />
<P></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>&nbsp;<BR><STRONG>Childhood Obesity and Premature Death</STRONG><br />
<P>BMI was positively associated with the risk of premature death<SUP> </SUP>from endogenous causes (incidence-rate ratio per 1 unit of BMI<SUP> </SUP>z score, 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20 to 1.63).<SUP> </SUP>BMI was positively, but not significantly, associated with death<SUP> </SUP>from external causes (incidence-rate ratio per 1 SD of standardized<SUP> </SUP>BMI, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.42).<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>Children in the highest quartile of age-standardized and sex-standardized<SUP> </SUP>BMI had significantly higher rates of death than did children<SUP> </SUP>in the lowest quartile (<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#F1">Figure 1</A> and <A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#T3">Table 3</A>). The rates of<SUP> </SUP>death from endogenous causes among children in the highest quartile<SUP> </SUP>of BMI were more than double those among children in the lowest<SUP> </SUP>quartile (incidence-rate ratio, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.46 to 3.62)<SUP> </SUP>(<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#T3">Table 3</A>). This finding could not be explained just by the presence<SUP> </SUP>of extremely obese children in the highest quartile, however,<SUP> </SUP>since none of the 51 extremely obese children (BMI z score >3)<SUP> </SUP>died during the follow-up period, possibly because these participants<SUP> </SUP>were younger and from more recent birth cohorts (median follow-up,<SUP> </SUP>21.4 years) than participants who were less obese. The association<SUP> </SUP>between BMI and premature death from endogenous causes was attenuated<SUP> </SUP>but remained significant after adjustment for baseline glucose<SUP> </SUP>level, cholesterol level, and blood pressure (incidence-rate<SUP> </SUP>ratio for the highest BMI quartile vs. the lowest quartile,<SUP> </SUP>1.41; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.67) (<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#T3">Table 3</A><B>)</B>.<SUP> </SUP><br />
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<TD vAlign=top align=middle bgColor=#ffffff><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485/F1"><IMG height=109 alt="Figure 1" hspace=10 src="http://content.nejm.org/content/vol362/issue6/images/small/06f1.gif" width=128 vspace=5 border=2></A><BR><STRONG>View larger version</STRONG> (36K):<BR><NOBR><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485/F1">[in this window]</A><BR><A _onmouseover="window.status='View figure in a separate window'; return true" _onclick="startTarget('F1', 590, 576); this.href='/cgi/content-nw/full/362/6/485/F1'" href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content-nw/full/362/6/485/F1" target=F1>[in a new window]</A><BR><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/powerpoint/362/6/485/F1"><IMG alt="Get Slide" src="http://content.nejm.org/icons/powerpoint/get_pp_slide_center.gif" vspace=8 border=0></A><BR>&nbsp;</NOBR> </TD><br />
<TD vAlign=top align=left><STRONG><B>Figure 1.</B> </STRONG>Kaplan–Meier Curves for Premature Death.<br />
<P>The graphs show the rates of premature death from all causes, external causes, and endogenous causes according to quartiles of age-standardized and sex-standardized body-mass index at different baseline ages during childhood and adolescence. Plots were computed with the use of baseline data. Age at baseline for each age group was taken as the midpoint of the age range.<br />
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<TD vAlign=top align=left><STRONG><B>Table 3.</B> </STRONG>Incidence-Rate Ratios for Premature Death, According to Quartile of Variables.<br />
<P></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>&nbsp;<BR>A total of 1394 of the children (28.7%) were obese, which was<SUP> </SUP>defined as a BMI in the 95th percentile or higher on the Centers<SUP> </SUP>for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) growth charts.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R15"><SUP>15</SUP></A> Among<SUP> </SUP>the obese children as compared with the nonobese children, the<SUP> </SUP>incidence-rate ratios were 1.31 (95% CI, 1.10 to 1.57) for premature<SUP> </SUP>death from all causes, 1.90 (95% CI, 1.37 to 2.65) for death<SUP> </SUP>from endogenous causes, and 1.14 (95% CI, 0.92 to 1.41) for<SUP> </SUP>death from external causes.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><STRONG>Childhood Glucose, Cholesterol, and Blood-Pressure Levels and Premature Death</STRONG><br />
<P>The 2-hour plasma glucose level during a 75-g oral glucose-tolerance<SUP> </SUP>test, expressed in age-standardized and sex-standardized units,<SUP> </SUP>was not associated with premature death from either endogenous<SUP> </SUP>or external causes. However, children in the highest quartile<SUP> </SUP>of glucose level had a 73% higher risk of premature death from<SUP> </SUP>endogenous causes than children in the lowest quartile (<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#T3">Table 3</A>). Adjustment for childhood BMI reduced the magnitude of the<SUP> </SUP>association (incidence-rate ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.96).<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>In models of impaired glucose tolerance (i.e., 2-hour glucose<SUP> </SUP>level of 7.8 to 11.0 mmol per liter [140 to 199 mg per deciliter])<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R18"><SUP>18</SUP></A> as compared with normal glucose tolerance as the predictor<SUP> </SUP>variable, the incidence-rate ratios were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.63<SUP> </SUP>to 1.30) for all-cause premature death, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.39 to<SUP> </SUP>1.65) for death from endogenous causes, and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.62<SUP> </SUP>to 1.43) for death from external causes. Children with impaired<SUP> </SUP>glucose tolerance accounted for 15% of the children in the highest<SUP> </SUP>quartile of plasma glucose levels and were all in the top decile<SUP> </SUP>of the standardized 2-hour glucose distribution.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>No significant associations were observed between death rates<SUP> </SUP>and childhood cholesterol levels or blood pressure (<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#T3">Table 3</A>).<SUP> </SUP>In models in which hypercholesterolemia, as defined by the American<SUP> </SUP>Heart Association cutoff point (total cholesterol level, 5.18<SUP> </SUP>mmol per liter [200 mg per deciliter]), was used as the predictor<SUP> </SUP>variable,<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R17"><SUP>17</SUP></A> the incidence-rate ratios were 1.33 (95% CI, 0.95<SUP> </SUP>to 1.88) for all-cause premature death, 1.70 (95% CI, 0.96 to<SUP> </SUP>3.01) for death from endogenous causes, and 1.18 (95% CI, 0.77<SUP> </SUP>to 1.80) for death from external causes.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>With hypertension defined according to the criteria of the National<SUP> </SUP>High Blood Pressure Education Program<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R16"><SUP>16</SUP></A> in the case of children<SUP> </SUP>and as 140/90 mm Hg or higher in the case of participants 18<SUP> </SUP>years of age or older, there was no significant association<SUP> </SUP>with rates of death from all causes (incidence-rate ratio, 1.15;<SUP> </SUP>95% CI, 0.93 to 1.43) or from external causes (incidence-rate<SUP> </SUP>ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.75 to 1.29). However, childhood hypertension<SUP> </SUP>was strongly associated with the rate of death from endogenous<SUP> </SUP>causes (incidence-rate ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.24).<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><STRONG>Potential Mediators of the Association between Obesity and Death</STRONG><br />
<P>Most deaths occurred in study participants who were not known<SUP> </SUP>to have diabetes. Of the 559 participants in whom diabetes developed,<SUP> </SUP>79 died: 40 from endogenous causes and 39 from external causes.<SUP> </SUP>Adjusting the BMI prediction models for incident diabetes did<SUP> </SUP>not significantly alter the risk estimates (incidence-rate ratio<SUP> </SUP>for the highest BMI quartile vs. the lowest quartile, 2.70;<SUP> </SUP>95% CI, 1.70 to 4.31). In contrast, inclusion of diabetes in<SUP> </SUP>the 2-hour glucose model reduced the risk estimate for the highest<SUP> </SUP>quartile of 2-hour glucose levels, and the association between<SUP> </SUP>the highest and lowest quartiles was not significant (incidence-rate<SUP> </SUP>ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.68). In Cox proportional-hazards<SUP> </SUP>models that included 2672 participants, there were no significant<SUP> </SUP>associations between childhood BMI and alcohol dependency in<SUP> </SUP>adulthood (incidence-rate ratio per unit of BMI z score, 1.01;<SUP> </SUP>95% CI, 0.96 to 1.07).<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><FONT face="arial, helvetica" size=+1><STRONG>Discussion</STRONG></FONT><br />
<P>It is well known that obesity, glucose intolerance, hypertension,<SUP> </SUP>and hypercholesterolemia in adulthood increase mortality rates.<SUP> </SUP>We conducted the present study to determine whether the presence<SUP> </SUP>of these risk factors in childhood predicts premature death.<SUP> </SUP>The rate of death from endogenous causes in the highest quartile<SUP> </SUP>of childhood BMI was more than double that in the lowest quartile,<SUP> </SUP>and the rate in the highest quartile of childhood two-hour plasma<SUP> </SUP>glucose levels during a 75-g oral glucose-tolerance test was<SUP> </SUP>73% higher than that in the lowest quartile. Although neither<SUP> </SUP>blood pressure nor cholesterol level in childhood, when included<SUP> </SUP>as a continuous variable, significantly predicted premature<SUP> </SUP>death, childhood hypertension increased the risk of premature<SUP> </SUP>death from endogenous causes by 57%.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>The absence of an association between premature death and cholesterol<SUP> </SUP>levels may be due partly to the low proportion of deaths due<SUP> </SUP>to cardiovascular disease in this cohort (13.3%). Treatment<SUP> </SUP>for any of the predictor traits during childhood or during adulthood<SUP> </SUP>did not appear to explain the pattern of association (data not<SUP> </SUP>shown). No childhood risk factor that was examined significantly<SUP> </SUP>predicted rates of premature death from external causes.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>Childhood obesity predicted premature death from endogenous,<SUP> </SUP>but not external, causes. The study was not powered to analyze<SUP> </SUP>effects on more specific categories of cause of death. Including<SUP> </SUP>only liver-related causes of death in the analysis reduced the<SUP> </SUP>magnitude of the association of premature death with childhood<SUP> </SUP>BMI and with the 2-hour glucose level, but the direction and<SUP> </SUP>pattern of associations were similar to those observed when<SUP> </SUP>all endogenous causes of death were included.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>We considered whether the relationship between childhood BMI<SUP> </SUP>and premature death reflects associations with adiposity or<SUP> </SUP>some other component of body mass. Our study began before the<SUP> </SUP>availability of modern adiposity measures such as dual-energy<SUP> </SUP>x-ray absorptiometry. However, we previously reported relationships<SUP> </SUP>between BMI and adipose mass and between adipose mass and the<SUP> </SUP>cardiovascular risk factors in this population<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R19"><SUP>19</SUP></A>; in that study,<SUP> </SUP>BMI and adiposity were strongly correlated (r>0.96), varying<SUP> </SUP>little with age and sex, and BMI and adipose mass were similarly<SUP> </SUP>correlated with the cardiovascular risk factors. Thus, the observations<SUP> </SUP>for childhood BMI reported here are likely to reflect a positive<SUP> </SUP>association between adiposity and rates of premature death.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>In a study involving 508 U.S. adolescents (13 to 18 years of<SUP> </SUP>age) who were born between 1922 and 1935, overweight (>75th<SUP> </SUP>percentile of the sample distribution) was associated with increased<SUP> </SUP>rates of death due to coronary heart disease.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R20"><SUP>20</SUP></A> Two studies<SUP> </SUP>have assessed the relationship between body weight and mortality<SUP> </SUP>in European birth cohorts from the early 20th century.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R21"><SUP>21</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R22"><SUP>22</SUP></A><SUP> </SUP>In a study of 2299 Welsh children born between 1937 and 1939,<SUP> </SUP>there was no association between childhood BMI and death from<SUP> </SUP>cardiovascular causes.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R21"><SUP>21</SUP></A> However, there was an association between<SUP> </SUP>childhood BMI and death from all causes; the lowest rate of<SUP> </SUP>death was seen in the next-to-lowest BMI quartile and the highest<SUP> </SUP>rate of death in the highest quartile, suggesting that, as in<SUP> </SUP>the case of adult Pima Indians,<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R23"><SUP>23</SUP></A> a U-shaped relationship exists<SUP> </SUP>between obesity and mortality. In the second European study,<SUP> </SUP>involving 504 overweight children and adolescents admitted to<SUP> </SUP>hospitals in Stockholm between 1921 and 1947, weight gain between<SUP> </SUP>puberty and young adulthood was associated with cardiovascular<SUP> </SUP>disease, diabetes, and death from all causes.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R22"><SUP>22</SUP></A> A limitation<SUP> </SUP>of these studies is that obesity was uncommon during the study<SUP> </SUP>period. For example, of the 2299 children in the Welsh study,<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R21"><SUP>21</SUP></A> only 92 (4.0%) had a BMI above the 90th percentile for the<SUP> </SUP>age-specific and sex-specific distributions of the 1990 British<SUP> </SUP>population, and British children in 1990 were leaner than their<SUP> </SUP>contemporary counterparts.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R24"><SUP>24</SUP></A><SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>In the Arizona Pima Indians, unlike most other ethnic groups,<SUP> </SUP>childhood obesity has been common for decades.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R25"><SUP>25</SUP></A> It has been<SUP> </SUP>estimated that at the turn of the 21st century, approximately<SUP> </SUP>15% of U.S. children between the ages of 6 and 19 years (11<SUP> </SUP>million children) were overweight or obese,<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R26"><SUP>26</SUP></A> a prevalence that<SUP> </SUP>is unlikely to decline in the near future<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R27"><SUP>27</SUP></A> and that is triple<SUP> </SUP>the prevalence among children of the same age in the 1960s.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R28"><SUP>28</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R29"><SUP>29</SUP></A> In the present study, 1394 children (28.7%) were obese (BMI,<SUP> </SUP><IMG alt=≥ src="http://content.nejm.org/math/ge.gif" border=0>95th percentile on the 2000 CDC growth charts). This prevalence<SUP> </SUP>is similar to that observed in contemporary Hispanic and African-American<SUP> </SUP>children.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R27"><SUP>27</SUP></A> Thus, although we studied a population with high<SUP> </SUP>rates of obesity and diabetes, our findings may reflect the<SUP> </SUP>future burden of premature death among contemporary children<SUP> </SUP>from other ethnic groups and may be more generalizable than<SUP> </SUP>the findings in previous studies.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>In this study, we compared mortality rates with several clinical<SUP> </SUP>risk factors as variables. Adjusting the obesity models for<SUP> </SUP>the development of diabetes in adulthood did not significantly<SUP> </SUP>alter the risk estimates, whereas adjusting the glucose models<SUP> </SUP>for subsequent diabetes did attenuate the association between<SUP> </SUP>childhood glucose levels and premature death. Hence, dysregulated<SUP> </SUP>glucose metabolism in childhood may be a mediator of the effects<SUP> </SUP>of childhood obesity on mortality rates, but it does not appear<SUP> </SUP>to be the sole or dominant factor; however, the association<SUP> </SUP>between childhood glucose intolerance and premature death does<SUP> </SUP>appear to be mediated by the development of subsequent diabetes.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>The pattern of the relationships between the risk factors and<SUP> </SUP>observed mortality supports the view that childhood obesity<SUP> </SUP>is an early metabolic derangement, whereas most of the other<SUP> </SUP>risk factors evolve later. In fact, the predictive power of<SUP> </SUP>a risk score for type 2 diabetes (including measures of obesity<SUP> </SUP>and insulin, blood-pressure, glucose, and lipid levels) in children<SUP> </SUP>is almost entirely dependent on abdominal obesity, whereas in<SUP> </SUP>adolescents, the risk profile has evolved to include obesity,<SUP> </SUP>hyperglycemia, and dyslipidemia.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R30"><SUP>30</SUP></A> Our findings complement those<SUP> </SUP>in our previous study, which showed that type 2 diabetes, when<SUP> </SUP>it occurs during adolescence in this population, strongly predicts<SUP> </SUP>subsequent renal failure and death.<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R2"><SUP>2</SUP></A><SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>Although there was no significant association between childhood<SUP> </SUP>hypercholesterolemia and death before 55 years of age in this<SUP> </SUP>young cohort, an elevated cholesterol level in childhood may<SUP> </SUP>emerge as a significant risk factor and other causes of death<SUP> </SUP>may predominate if the cohort is followed to older ages. Cholesterol<SUP> </SUP>levels, however, are lower in American Indians than they are<SUP> </SUP>in most other ethnic groups,<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R31"><SUP>31</SUP></A> a finding that may partially<SUP> </SUP>explain the absence of association for this trait. The relationship<SUP> </SUP>between BMI and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol is<SUP> </SUP>relatively strong in Pima children (r=–0.3 to –0.6),<SUP> </SUP>but the relationship between BMI and total cholesterol is weaker<SUP> </SUP>(r=0.1).<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R19"><SUP>19</SUP></A> The effect of BMI on premature death might be attributable<SUP> </SUP>in part to low HDL-cholesterol concentrations, which were not<SUP> </SUP>measured in most of the study participants. Nevertheless, we<SUP> </SUP>speculate that low HDL-cholesterol levels are likely to mediate<SUP> </SUP>rather than confound this relationship.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>It is possible that the relationship between childhood BMI and<SUP> </SUP>mortality is confounded by unmeasured lifestyle factors. Nevertheless,<SUP> </SUP>obesity can be both the cause and the consequence of adverse<SUP> </SUP>lifestyle factors such as physical inactivity, excessive caloric<SUP> </SUP>intake, and specific nutrient preferences. Thus, such factors<SUP> </SUP>may be important components of the causal pathway between obesity<SUP> </SUP>and death. It is also possible that genetic factors have pleiotropic<SUP> </SUP>effects on BMI and mortality.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>Childhood obesity is predictive of excess mortality in several<SUP> </SUP>divergent settings,<A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R20"><SUP>20</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R21"><SUP>21</SUP></A><SUP>,</SUP><A href="http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/362/6/485#R22"><SUP>22</SUP></A> indicating that obesity itself is<SUP> </SUP>causally related to either death or other commonly related factors.<SUP> </SUP>Even if preventing childhood obesity does not affect the risk<SUP> </SUP>of death, increased physical activity and modification of diet<SUP> </SUP>are likely to have long-term benefits. The lack of specific<SUP> </SUP>data on such factors is a limitation of this study.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>In summary, obesity in children who do not have diabetes is<SUP> </SUP>associated with an increased rate of death from endogenous causes<SUP> </SUP>during early adulthood, an association that may be partially<SUP> </SUP>mediated by the development of glucose intolerance and hypertension<SUP> </SUP>in childhood. In contrast, the cholesterol level in childhood<SUP> </SUP>is not a major determinant of premature death in this population.<SUP> </SUP>Childhood obesity is becoming increasingly prevalent around<SUP> </SUP>the globe. Our observations, combined with those of other investigators,<SUP> </SUP>suggest that failure to reverse this trend may have wide-reaching<SUP> </SUP>consequences for the quality of life and longevity. Such evidence<SUP> </SUP>underscores the importance of preventing obesity starting in<SUP> </SUP>the early years of life.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P><SUP></SUP><br />
<P><SUP></SUP><br />
<P><FONT size=-1>Supported by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive<SUP> </SUP>and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) intramural research program. Dr.<SUP> </SUP>Franks was supported in part by grants from the Swedish Diabetes<SUP> </SUP>Association, the Swedish Heart Lung Foundation, the Swedish<SUP> </SUP>Research Council, Umeå University (Career Development<SUP> </SUP>Award), and the Västerbotten regional health authority<SUP> </SUP>(Strategic Appointment 2006-09).<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was<SUP> </SUP>reported.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P>We thank members of the Gila River Indian Community for participating<SUP> </SUP>in this study and for the profound commitment this community<SUP> </SUP>has made over the past half century to studies that seek to<SUP> </SUP>further our understanding of human health and disease; the staff<SUP> </SUP>of the Diabetes Epidemiology and Clinical Research Section of<SUP> </SUP>the NIDDK for conducting the examinations; and Joy C. Bunt,<SUP> </SUP>M.D., Ph.D., for comments on the manuscript.<SUP> </SUP><br />
<P></FONT><FONT size=-1></FONT><BR><FONT face="arial, helvetica" size=+1><STRONG>Source Information</STRONG></FONT><FONT size=3> </FONT><br />
<P><FONT size=-1>From the Diabetes Epidemiology and Clinical Research Section, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Phoenix, AZ (P.W.F., R.L.H., W.C.K., M.L.S., P.H.B., H.C.L.); the Genetic Epidemiology and Clinical Research Group, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section for Medicine, Umeå University Hospital, Umeå, Sweden (P.W.F.); the Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom (P.W.F.); and Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York (H.C.L.). </FONT><br />
<P><FONT size=-1>Address reprint requests to Dr. Franks at the Genetic Epidemiology and Clinical Research Group, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section for Medicine, Umeå University Hospital, Umeå 901 87, Sweden, or at <SPAN id=em0><A href="mailto:paul.franks@medicin.umu.se">paul.franks@medicin.umu.se</A></SPAN><br />
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<P><FONT face="arial, helvetica" size=+1><STRONG>References</STRONG></FONT><br />
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<P>===================================<BR><BR>10대 비만, 식이요법·운동보다 수술이 효과적&#8221;</P><br />
<P>출처 : 뉴시스 | 이진례 | 입력 2010.02.10 15:20 </P><br />
<P><BR>【시카고=로이터/뉴시스】이진례 기자 = 식욕을 억제하기 위해 위밴드수술을 받은 10대 과체중자들이 식이요법과 운동을 병행하는 10대 과체중자들보다 더욱 건강한 생활을 한다는 연구 결과가 나와 주목되고 있다. </P><br />
<P>호주 멜버른 모나시 대학의 폴 오브라이언 박사와 그의 동료들은 9일(현지시각) 미국의사협회저널에 실은 보고서에서 &#8220;연구 결과, 비만인 경우 위밴드수술을 받는 것이 체중 감량에 더욱 크고 지속적인 효과를 나타내는 것으로 나타났다&#8221;며 이와 같이 주장했다. </P><br />
<P><BR>이들이 14세 이상~18세 이하 청소년 50명을 대상으로 실시한 결과, 위밴드수술을 받은 과체중 청소년 25명 가운데 21명은 자신의 초과 체중의 절반 이상을 뺐으나 식이요법과 운동, 행동수정프로그램을 실시한 또 다른 25명 가운데서는 단 3명만이 초과 체중의 절반 이상을 감소하는 데 성공했다. </P><br />
<P>또한 위밴드수술을 받은 지 2년이 지난 청소년들의 경우 총 신체 체중의 28.3%가 감소한 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 초과 체중의 78.8%에 해당하는 수준이다. </P><br />
<P>그러나 식이요법과 운동을 병행한 청소년의 경우 총 신체 체중의 3%만이 감소한 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 초과 체중의 13.2%에 해당하는 것이다. </P><br />
<P>아울러 위밴드수술은 비만과 더불어 신진대사증후군과 고혈압, 콜레스테롤 및 혈당 조절에 도움을 주는 것으로 나타났다. </P><br />
<P>이 연구팀이 연구를 시작할 당시 위밴드수술을 받은 청소년들 가운데 36%, 식이요법과 운동을 병행한 청소년의 40%가 신진대사증후군을 겪고 있었는데, 2년 후 위밴드수술을 받은 청소년 가운데서 신진대사증후군을 앓는 이는 한 명도 없었다. 그러나 위밴드수술을 받지 않은 청소년 가운데 22%는 여전히 신진대사증후군을 앓고 있었다. </P><br />
<P>텍사스 사우스웨스턴 의료대학의 교수이자 미국의사협회저널의 편집자인 에드워드 리빙스톤 박사는 논평을 통해 &#8220;이번 연구결과는 젊은이들을 위한 비만을 치료하는데 비만 치료 수술을 이용하는 것과 관련한 구체적인 증거를 제공해 준다&#8221;고 밝혔다. </P><br />
<P>이어 그는 &#8220;비만을 치료하기 위해 수술을 받는 것에 대한 논쟁으로, 비만 치료 수술을 지지하는 증거의 질이 조악한 상태&#8221;라며 &#8220;미국의 많은 보험사들이 비만 치료 수술을 위해서는 보험금을 지급하지 않을 것이고, 이러한 결정은 이들 지지자들의 설득력이 부족하고 일반적으로 받아들여질 수 있는 증거에 기인한 것이다&#8221;고 밝혔다. </P><br />
<P>현재 미국 어린이의 약 3분의 1이 비만을 겪고 있는 가운데, 버락 오바마 미국 대통령은 현 세대에서 해결해야할 최우선 과제 가운데 하나로 어린이 비만을 꼽고 있다. </P><br />
<P>그 동안 성인 비만과 관련된 비만 수술에 대한 안정성 및 효과에 대한 연구는 많았으나, 어린이와 10대 비만을 위한 체중감량 수술의 안전성 및 효과에 대한 연구는 부족했다. </P><br />
<P><A href="mailto:eeka232@newsis.com">eeka232@newsis.com</A> <BR><BR></P><!-- /HIGHWIRE --><!-- TEXT --></p>
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		<title>[비만] 비만 히스테릭(이대택), 비만신화</title>
		<link>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1779</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 12:47:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[식품 · 의약품]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[An Epidemic of Obesity Myths]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[고혈압]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당뇨]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[비만 히스테릭]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[비만신화]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[생활습관병]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[성인병]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[이대택]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[폴 캄포스]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[이대택(국민대 체육대) 교수가 최근 [비만 히스테릭](지성사)이라는 책을 펴냈는데&#8230; &#8220;비만이란 질병은 존재하지 않는다. 우리가 지금 알고 있는 비만의 위험성이나 다이어트의 건강에 대한 유용성은 모두 존재하지 않는다. 오히려 왜곡되어 있다.&#8221;는 [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><P>이대택(국민대 체육대) 교수가 최근 [비만 히스테릭](지성사)이라는 <BR>책을 펴냈는데&#8230; &#8220;비만이란 질병은 존재하지 않는다. 우리가 지금 알고 있는 비만의 위험성이나 다이어트의 건강에 대한 유용성은 모두 존재하지 않는다. 오히려 왜곡되어 있다.&#8221;는 주장에 기반하여 &#8220;비만과 건강의 관계는 과대 포장됐다&#8221;면서 체중이 높을수록 사망률이나 질병 발병률이 높다는 기존 연구 결과들의 &#8216;오류&#8217;를&nbsp;꼬집는 내용이라고 합니다.&nbsp;<BR><BR>이대택 교수는 비만과 과체중, 정상 체중을 가르는 척도로 흔히 쓰이는 신체질량지수(BMI)에 의문을 제기하고&nbsp;있습니다.&nbsp;키와 몸무게만 계산하고 체구성을 상관하지 않으므로 건강상의 위험성을 가려낼 수 없는데다, 서양인에게 쓰이는 기준을 그대로 동양인에게 쓰는 것도 적합하지 않다는 것입니다.&nbsp;<BR><BR>그는 &#8220;과체중이면, 그리고 25세 이후에 체중이 늘면 심혈관 질환의 유발 위험이 커진다&#8221;는 연구 결과에 대해&nbsp;운동과 체력, 다이어트 습관, 스트레스 등의 변인을 고려하지 않는 오류를 저질렀다고 지적했습니다.<BR><BR>그는 건강의 척도를 &#8216;체중&#8217;이나 &#8216;체격&#8217;이 아니라 &#8216;체력&#8217;에서 찾아야 한다고 주장하고 있습니다.<BR>&nbsp; <BR>이대택 교수가 그 주장의 근거로 삼고 있는 내용은 폴 캄포스(Paul Campos)의 [비만 신화(The Diet Myth 2005),The Obesity Myth 2004)]인 것 같습니다.<BR><BR>사람들은 왜 비만을 &#8216;과하게&#8217; 걱정하게 된 것일까요? 이대택 교수는 비만을 둘러싼 산업이 가장 발달한 미국에서 그 답을 찾고 있습니다. <BR><BR>이대택 교수는 폴 캄포스가 주장한&nbsp;&#8221;의료 산업과 제약 산업의 이윤을 극대화하는 입장에서 이상적인 질병은, 그 질병에 시달리게 하면서도 죽지 않게 하고, 효과적으로 치료도 안 되며, 그러면서도 의사나 환자가 치료를 위해 달려드는 그런 것&#8221;이라는 [비만 신화]의 내용을 소개하고 있습니다.<BR><BR>한편 미국 내 전국 레스토랑 연합체인 소비자자유센터(The Center for Consumer Freedom)는 폴 캄포스가 주장하는 내용과&nbsp;거의 유사한 내용을 기반으로&nbsp;&nbsp;비만과 질병과의 인과관계를 부인하고 있습니다.<BR><BR>소비자자유센터(The Center for Consumer Freedom)라는 NGO를 가장한 레스토랑 연합체는 담배소송과 유사한 &#8216;햄버거 소송&#8217;을 모면하기 위해 &#8216;비만&#8217;이 신화라고 주장하고 있으며&#8230; 육식을 권장하고 있습니다.<BR><BR>소비자자유센터(The Center for Consumer Freedom) 홈페이지에 파일 전문을 공개된 [An Epidemic of Obesity Myths](The Center for Consumer Freedom)의 목차는 아래와 같고&#8230; 원문 PDF파일은 첨부파일을 참조하시기 바랍니다.<BR><BR>콜라, 햄버거, 피자, 아스파탐&nbsp;등 정크푸드, 패스트푸드를 통해 막대한 이윤을 창출하는 식품산업과 다이어트 식품, 살빼는 약, 수술 등을 통해 막대한 이윤을 창출하는 제약, 의료 산업을 비판하는&nbsp;작업과 비만이 건강에 거의(또는 전혀) 영향을 끼치지 않으며 현대인이 만들어낸 신화에 불과하다는 과격한(?) 주장이 과연 서로 합치될 수 있을지 의문입니다.<BR><BR>또한 이과 별개로 체중, 체격, 체력, 체질량지수(BMI) 등과 건강과 질병에 대한 정의에 대해서도 철학적이고 근본적인 고민을 해봐야 할 것 같습니다.<BR><BR>=============================<BR><BR>An Epidemic of Obesity Myths<BR><A href="http://www.obesitymyths.com/"><BR></A>(원문 파일 : <A href="http://www.obesitymyths.com/downloads/obesityMyths.pdf">http://www.obesitymyths.com/downloads/obesityMyths.pdf</A>)<BR><BR>The Myths<BR>Introduction &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 1<BR>65 Percent of Americans Are Overweight or Obese &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 4<BR>“Overweight” and “obese” celebrities and sports stars &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 5<BR>Who was behind the redefi nition of “overweight”? &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 9<BR>Experts criticize the body mass index (BMI) &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 12<BR>BMI report cards &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 13<BR>Consequences of using the BMI &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 15<BR>Obesity Kills 400,000 Americans Annually &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 19<BR>CDC study dramatically lowers death estimate &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 20<BR>Timeline of the debunked 400,000-deaths study &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 20<BR>The CDC’s excuses &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 34<BR>Why the 26,000-deaths study is scientifi cally superior &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 37<BR>Who was behind the 400,000-deaths statistic? &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 51<BR>Harvard’s straw man &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 54<BR>Experts questioning the obesity-mortality link&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 60<BR>Obesity Will Shorten Life Expectancy &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 67<BR>Improving medical technology &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 70<BR>From science to activism &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 72<BR>You Can’t Be Overweight and Healthy &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 77<BR>Fitness vs. fatness &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 77<BR>The cost of physical inactivity &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 82<BR>Overeating Is the Primary Cause of Obesity &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 85<BR>A nation of couch potatoes &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 85<BR>The state of physical activity &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 92<BR>Other causes of obesity &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 94<BR>Smoking cessation and weight gain &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 96<BR>Does food marketing cause obesity? &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 96<BR>Will nutrition information on restaurant menus help? &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 97<BR>Fast food and obesity &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 100<BR>Are healthy foods too expensive? &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 101<BR>Soda Causes Childhood Obesity &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 103<BR>Obesity Costs Americans $117 Billion Annually &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 109<BR>Obesity Has Made Diabetes Epidemic &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. 113<BR>Syndrome X &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 121<BR>Childhood type-2 diabetes &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 123<BR>The Myth Makers<BR>Overview &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 127<BR>The Weight-loss Gold Rush &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 131<BR>Professional Organizations Supported<BR>by the Weight-loss Industry &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 133<BR>Influential Obesity Researchers and Their Industry Ties &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.. 145<BR>Defending Fen-phen &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; 149<BR><BR>===========================<BR><BR>The Myths<BR><BR>65 Percent of Americans Are Overweight or Obese<BR><BR>Obesity Kills 400,000 Americans Annually<BR><BR>Obesity Will Shorten Life Expectancy<BR><BR>You Can’t Be Overweight and Healthy<BR><BR>Overeating Is the Primary Cause of Obesity<BR><BR>Soda Causes Childhood Obesity<BR><BR>Obesity Costs Americans $117 Billion Annually<BR><BR>Obesity Has Made Diabetes Epidemic<BR><BR>==========================<BR><BR>The Diet Myth: Why America&#8217;s Obsessions with Weight is Hazardous to Your Health</P><br />
<P>Paul Campos (Author) </P><br />
<P>Paperback: 336 pages <BR>Publisher: Gotham (May 9, 2005) <BR>Language: English <BR><BR>====================================<BR>The Obesity Myth: Why America&#8217;s Obsession with Weight is Hazardous to Your Health<BR><BR>&nbsp;Paul Campos (Author) <BR>Hardcover: 288 pages<BR>Language: English <BR><BR></P></p>
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		<title>[사망원인] 죽음을 부르는 가장 큰 원인은? 낮은 심폐적성</title>
		<link>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1777</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 11:03:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[식품 · 의약품]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[고지혈증]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[고혈압]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[공인덕]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[낮은 심폐적성]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당뇨]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[메디컬 피트니스]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[비만]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[사망원인]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[스포츠 의학]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[신체활동]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[예병일]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[흡연]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[죽음을 부르는 가장 큰 원인은? [메디컬 피트니스] 신체 활동과 운동 출처 : 프레시안 기사입력 2010-02-04 오전 9:24:16 미국스포츠의학회(American College of Sports Medicine·www.acsm.org)의 조사에 따르면, 의사들 중 40퍼센트만이 신체 [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>죽음을 부르는 가장 큰 원인은?<!--/DCM_TITLE--><!--KWCM_TITLE_END_1--><br />
<H4>[메디컬 피트니스] 신체 활동과 운동</H4><br />
<P class=inputdate>출처 : 프레시안 기사입력 2010-02-04 오전 9:24:16 <BR><BR>미국스포츠의학회(American College of Sports Medicine·www.acsm.org)의 조사에 따르면, 의사들 중 40퍼센트만이 신체 활동의 필요성을 환자들에게 이야기합니다. 의사들이 환자들에게 적절한 운동이 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>질병</FONT></A> 예방과 치료에 중요하다는 사실을 수시로 주지시키지는 않는 것입니다.<BR><BR>그 결과 병원을 찾은 환자들 중 불과 25퍼센트만이 의사로부터 운동에 대한 권고를 받는 걸로 나타났습니다. 같은 조사에서 운동이 필요한 환자들에게 객관적인 충분한 정보들이 다양한 수준에서 제공된다면, 약 65퍼센트의 환자들이 보다 큰 관심을 갖고 삶의 질 향상을 위해 운동을 실천에 옮길 수 있을 것으로 전망하고 있습니다.<BR><BR>이처럼 신체 활동의 증가와 운동 요법이 질병의 예방과 치료에 표준화된 일부로 정착하는 일은 매우 필요한 일입니다. 한국에서도 의학적 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>패러다임</FONT></A>을 전환시키는 중요한 이슈가 될 것이라 전망됩니다.<BR><BR><B>높은 사망률을 보이는 낮은 심폐적성</B><BR><BR><A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>심폐</FONT></A>적성이란 개인의 운동 능력을 나타내는 주요 지표로 신체 활동이나 운동에 따른 산소소모율로 평가됩니다. 남자 40만842명과 여자 1만2943명을 대상으로 한 대규모 역학조사에서 낮은 심폐적성이 높은 사망률을 설명하는 가장 주요한 인자임이 최근 보고에 의해 밝혀졌습니다(아래 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>그림</FONT></A> 참조).<BR><BR>여러 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>건강</FONT></A> 관련 위험인자들이나 만성질병보다도 신체 활동 저하로 인한 낮은 심폐적성이 사망률에 미치는 영향이 매우 커서 21세기에 가장 큰 개인의 건강 관련 문제일 것이라는 연구결과는 우리에게도 시사하는 바가 매우 크다 할 것입니다.<BR><BR><br />
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<TD style="FONT-SIZE: 11px; COLOR: #777; LINE-HEIGHT: 15px; LETTER-SPACING: -0.05em" width=500>ⓒ프레시안</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR><B>올바른 강도의 적절한 신체 활동의 유익성</B><BR><BR>비록 낮은 수준의 운동이라 하더라도 셀 수 없을 만큼 많은 장점을 가지고 있습니다. 올바른 강도의 적절한 신체 활동은 다음과 같은 구체적이고 객관적인 유익한 점들이 있습니다.<BR><BR>① <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>심장</FONT></A> 질환을 40퍼센트 낮춥니다.<BR>② <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>뇌졸중</FONT></A>의 위험도를 27퍼센트 줄입니다.<BR>③ <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>당뇨</FONT></A> 발생을 거의 50퍼센트 줄입니다.<BR>④ <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>고혈압</FONT></A>의 발생을 50퍼센트까지 감소시킵니다.<BR>⑤ <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>유방암</FONT></A>의 사망률과 재발 위험을 50퍼센트 줄여줄 수 있습니다.<BR>⑥ <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>대장암</FONT></A> 발생을 60퍼센트 이상 감소시킬 수 있습니다.<BR>⑦ 알츠하이머병(알츠하이머성 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>치매</FONT></A>) 발병을 3분의 1로 줄여줄 수 있습니다.<BR>⑧ 항우울제 복용이나 행동 치료만큼이나 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>우울증</FONT></A>을 감소시킬 수 있습니다.<BR><BR><B>자신의 평소 신체 활동량 알기</B><BR><BR>아래 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>설문</FONT></A>은 세계보건기구(World Health Organization·www.who.int)에서 마련한 신체 활동에 대한 단축형 설문입니다. 이 설문은 지난 7일간 독자께서 신체 활동에 얼마나 많은 시간을 소모했는지를 알아보는 것입니다.<BR><BR>스스로 활동적이지 않다고 생각되시더라도 각 질문에 응답해 보시기 바랍니다. <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>직장</FONT></A>과 집에서 하는 활동, 교통수단을 이용할 때 하는 활동, 여가 시간에 시행하는 활동, 운동 또는 스포츠 모두를 포함하여 생각해 주시기 바랍니다.<BR><BR><br />
<TABLE style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #cbd4e9; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #cbd4e9; MARGIN: 0px auto; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #cbd4e9; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #eaeef7; TEXT-ALIGN: justify; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #cbd4e9" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0><br />
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<TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-LEFT: 10px; FONT-SIZE: 14px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 10px; LINE-HEIGHT: 23px; PADDING-TOP: 10px"><FONT color=#aa1a19>귀하가 지난 7일간 하신 모든 격렬한 활동을 생각해보십시오. 격렬한 신체 활동이란 힘들게 움직이는 활동으로서 평소보다 숨이 훨씬 더 차게 만드는 활동입니다. 한 번에 적어도 10분 이상 지속한 활동만을 생각하여 응답해주시기 바랍니다.<BR><BR>1. 지난 7일간 무거운 물건 나르기, 달리기, 에어로빅, 빠른 속도로 자전거타기 등과 같은 격렬한 신체 활동을 며칠간 하였습니까?<BR>일주일에 ( ) 일<BR>◇ 격렬한 신체 활동 없었음 ➣ 3번으로 가세요.<BR><BR>2. 그런 날 중 하루에 격렬한 신체 활동을 하면서 보낸 시간이 보통 얼마나 됩니까?<BR>하루에 ( )시간 ( )분<BR>◇ 모르겠다. / 확실하지 않다.<BR><BR>지난 7일간 중간 정도의 신체 활동(평소보다 숨이 조금 더 차게 만드는 활동)을 한 번에 적어도 10분 이상 지속한 활동만을 생각하여 응답하여 주시기 바랍니다.<BR><BR>3. 지난 7일간 가벼운 물건 나르기, 보통 속도로 자전거 타기, 복식 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>테니스</FONT></A> 등과 같은 중간 정도의 신체 활동을 며칠간 하였습니까? (걷기는 포함시키지 마세요)<BR>일주일에 ( )일<BR>◇ 중간 정도의 신체 활동이 없었음. ➣ 5번으로 가세요.<BR><BR>4. 그런 날 중 하루에 중간 정도의 신체 활동을 하면서 보낸 시간이 보통 얼마나 됩니까?<BR>하루에 ( )시간 ( )분<BR>◇ 모르겠다. / 확실하지 않다.<BR><BR>지난 7일간 걸은 시간을 생각해 보세요. 직장이나 집에서 혹은 오락 활동, 스포츠, 운동, 여가시간에 걸은 것도 포함됩니다.<BR><BR>5. 지난 7일간 한 번에 적어도 10분 이상 걸은 날은 며칠입니까?<BR>일주일에 ( )일<BR>◇ 걷지 않았음. ➣ 7번으로 가세요.<BR><BR>6.그런 날 중 하루에 걸으면서 보낸 시간은 보통 어마나 됩니까?<BR>하루에 ( )시간 ( )분<BR>◇ 모르겠다. / 확실하지 않다.<BR><BR>지난 7일간 앉아서 보낸 시간에 관한 것입니다. <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>책상</FONT></A>에 앉아 있거나 친구를 만나거나, <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>독서</FONT></A>를 할 때 앉거나, TV를 앉아서 또는 누워서 시청한 시간이 포함됩니다.<BR><BR>7. 지난 7일간 주중에 앉아서 보낸 시간이 보통 얼마나 됩니까?<BR>하루에 ( )시간 ( )분<BR>◇ 모르겠다. / 확실하지 않다.</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR><B>개인별 신체 활동량 판정</B><BR><BR>개인별 신체 활동량을 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>판정</FONT></A>하기 위해서는 신체 활동에 따른 METs(metabolic equivalents)의 총합을 구해야 합니다. METs란 운동 강도를 표현하는 단위로 안정시 산소이용률(3.5ml/kg/min)을 1METs로 할 때 상대적인 크기로 나타낸 값입니다. METs의 값을 계산하여 아래와 같이 신체 활동을 평가할 수 있습니다.<BR><BR>격렬한 활동(A) : 분당 8.0METs<BR>중등도의 신체활동(B) : 분당 4.0METs<BR>걷는 것으로 대표되는 가벼운 신체 활동(C) : 분당 3.3METs<BR><BR>이와 같이 얻은 활동 정도를 이용하여 신체 활동 수준을 아래와 같이 판정합니다.<BR><BR><FONT color=#bf680a>1) 높은 수준의 신체 활동 : 다음 둘 중의 하나에 해당될 때.<BR>- 격렬한 신체 활동(A)을 최소한 일주일에 3일 이상 1500MET-minutes를 한 경우<BR>- 어떤 수준의 운동의 조합이건 매일 운동을 하여 주 3000MET-minutes 이상 한 경우<BR><BR>2) 중간 수준의 신체 활동 : 다음 셋 중 하나에 해당될 때.<BR>- 격렬한 신체 활동(A)을 최소한 일주일에 3일 이상 하루에 20분 이상 한 경우<BR>- 중간 정도의 신체 활동(B)을 최소한 일주일에 5일 이상 하루에 30분 이상 한 경우<BR>- 어떤 수준의 운동의 조합이건 5일 이상 운동을 하여 주 600MET-minutes 이상 한 경우<BR><BR>3) 낮은 수준의 신체 활동 : 위의 높은 수준이나 중간 수준에 해당되지 않는 신체 활동임.</FONT><BR><BR>신체 활동의 수준이 낮다는 것은 심폐적성이 낮음을 의미하며, 심폐적성이 낮다는 것은 위의 그림에서 볼 수 있는 바와 같이 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>비만</FONT></A>, 흡연, 고혈압, <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>고지혈증</FONT></A>, 당뇨 등 익히 알려져 있는 질병이나 질병 위험인자보다 더 높은 사망률을 보여 주는 중요한 인자입니다.<BR><BR>그러므로 독자 여러분들께서는 적어도 중간 수준의 신체 활동을 유지할 수 있을 만큼 운동을 생활화하셔서 심폐적성이 낮은 수준에 머물지 않도록 하시는 것이 건강유지의 지름길입니다. </P><br />
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<P class=author>/공인덕 연세<A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>대학교</FONT></A> 운동의학센터 <A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>교수</FONT></A>,예병일 연세<A class=dklink href="http://www.pressian.com/article/article.asp?article_num=60100204085728&#038;section=03" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>대학</FONT></A>교 운동의학센터 교수</P></p>
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		<title>[비만] 비만에 관한 과학적 사실(WHO)</title>
		<link>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1751</link>
		<comments>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1751#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jan 2010 00:20:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[식품 · 의약품]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Body mass index (BMI)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obesity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overweight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[가공식품]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[과체중]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[관절질환]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당뇨]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[바만]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[스넥문화]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[심장병]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[암]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[정크푸드]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[체질량지수]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[패스트 푸드]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[세계보건기구(WHO)는 체질량지수(BMI) 25이상을 과체중(overweight)으로 규정하고 있으며,체질량지수(BMI) 30이상을 비만(obesity)으로 규정하고 있음.2005년 전세계 15세 이상 성인 중 16억명이 과체중으로 추정되며, 최소한&#160;&#160;4억명의 성인이 비만임.2015년 전세계 성인 중 23억명이 과체중이 될 것으로 [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><DIV class=docnote>세계보건기구(WHO)는 체질량지수(BMI) 25이상을 과체중(overweight)으로 규정하고 있으며,<BR>체질량지수(BMI) 30이상을 비만(obesity)으로 규정하고 있음.<BR><BR>2005년 전세계 15세 이상 성인 중 16억명이 과체중으로 추정되며, 최소한&nbsp;&nbsp;4억명의 성인이 비만임.<BR><BR>2015년 전세계 성인 중 23억명이 과체중이 될 것으로 추정되며, 7억명이 비만일 것으로 추정됨.<BR><BR>비만은 1) 심혈관계 질환 (매년 1700만명을 사망에 이르게 함&nbsp; 2) 당뇨 3) 근골격계 이상 4) 암(자궁내막암, 유방암, 대장암) 등의 원인.<BR><BR>많은 비판적인 전문가들은 비만이 전염병처럼 퍼지는 원인은 정크푸드와 스넥문화에 있다고 주장하고 있음. 패스트 푸드, 정크&nbsp; 푸드, 가공식품이 전체 음식소비에서 많은 비율을 차지할수록&nbsp;비만 인구가 증가할 것이며, 삶의 질은 더욱 떨어질 것임.<BR><BR>일부국가의 경우 비만 한 항목만으로 인해서 의료비를 7% 증가시킴.<BR><BR>===============================<BR><BR>Fact sheet N°311<BR>September 2006<BR><BR>출처 : 세계보건기구<BR><A href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs311/en/index.html">http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs311/en/index.html</A><BR></DIV><br />
<H1 class=storyPage>Obesity and overweight</H1><br />
<H3 class=sectionHead1>What are overweight and obesity?</H3><!-- IN: //inset.mc<br />
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<P><SPAN class=teaserHeadline>Related links</SPAN><BR></P><br />
<P><SPAN class=dots>::</SPAN> <A href="http://infobase.who.int/" target=_new>WHO Global Infobase</A> <BR><BR><SPAN class=dots>::</SPAN> <A href="http://www.who.int/bmi/index.jsp" target=_new>WHO Global Database on Body Mass Index (BMI) </A><BR><BR><SPAN class=dots>::</SPAN> <A href="http://www.who.int/entity/dietphysicalactivity/en/index.html">WHO Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health</A> <BR><BR><SPAN class=dots>::</SPAN> <A href="http://www.who.int/entity/childgrowth/en/index.html">WHO Child Growth Standards</A> <BR><BR><SPAN class=dots>::</SPAN> <A href="http://www.who.int/entity/chp/en/index.html">WHO Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion</A> <BR><BR><SPAN class=dots>::</SPAN> <A href="http://www.who.int/entity/nutrition/en/index.html">WHO Department of Nutrition for Health and Development</A> <BR clear=all></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></P><br />
<P>Overweight and obesity are defined as abnormal or excessive fat accumulation that may impair health.</P><br />
<P>Body mass index (BMI) is a simple index of weight-for-height that is commonly used in classifying overweight and obesity in adult populations and individuals. It is defined as the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters (kg/m2).</P><br />
<P>BMI provides the most useful population-level measure of overweight and obesity as it is the same for both sexes and for all ages of adults. However, it should be considered as a rough guide because it may not correspond to the same degree of fatness in different individuals.</P><br />
<P>The World Health Organization (WHO) defines &#8220;overweight&#8221; as a BMI equal to or more than 25, and &#8220;obesity&#8221; as a BMI equal to or more than 30. These cut-off points provide a benchmark for individual assessment, but there is evidence that risk of chronic disease in populations increases progressively from a BMI of 21.</P><br />
<P>The new WHO Child Growth Standards, launched in April 2006, include BMI charts for infants and young children up to age 5. However, measuring overweight and obesity in children aged 5 to 14 years is challenging because there is not a standard definition of childhood obesity applied worldwide. WHO is currently developing an international growth reference for school-age children and adolescents.</P><br />
<H3 class=sectionHead1>Facts about overweight and obesity </H3><br />
<P>WHO’s latest projections indicate that globally in 2005:</P><br />
<UL class=disc><br />
<LI>approximately 1.6 billion adults (age 15+) were overweight;<br />
<LI>at least 400 million adults were obese. </LI></UL><br />
<P>WHO further projects that by 2015, approximately 2.3 billion adults will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese.</P><br />
<P>At least 20 million children under the age of 5 years are overweight globally in 2005.</P><br />
<P>Once considered a problem only in high-income countries, overweight and obesity are now dramatically on the rise in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in urban settings.</P><br />
<H3 class=sectionHead1>What causes obesity and overweight?</H3><br />
<P>The fundamental cause of obesity and overweight is an energy imbalance between calories consumed on one hand, and calories expended on the other hand. Global increases in overweight and obesity are attributable to a number of factors including:</P><br />
<UL class=disc><br />
<LI>a global shift in diet towards increased intake of energy-dense foods that are high in fat and sugars but low in vitamins, minerals and other micronutrients; and<br />
<LI>a trend towards decreased physical activity due to the increasingly sedentary nature of many forms of work, changing modes of transportation, and increasing urbanization. </LI></UL><br />
<H3 class=sectionHead1>What are common health consequences of overweight and obesity?</H3><br />
<P>Overweight and obesity lead to serious health consequences. Risk increases progressively as BMI increases. Raised body mass index is a major risk factor for chronic diseases such as:</P><br />
<UL class=disc><br />
<LI>Cardiovascular disease (mainly heart disease and stroke) &#8211; already the world&#8217;s number one cause of death, killing 17 million people each year.<br />
<LI>Diabetes – which has rapidly become a global epidemic. WHO projects that diabetes deaths will increase by more than 50% worldwide in the next 10 years.<br />
<LI>Musculoskeletal disorders – especially osteoarthritis.<br />
<LI>Some cancers (endometrial, breast, and colon). </LI></UL><br />
<P>Childhood obesity is associated with a higher chance of premature death and disability in adulthood.</P><br />
<P>Many low- and middle-income countries are now facing a &#8220;double burden&#8221; of disease:</P><br />
<UL class=disc><br />
<LI>While they continue to deal with the problems of infectious disease and under-nutrition, at the same time they are experiencing a rapid upsurge in chronic disease risk factors such as obesity and overweight, particularly in urban settings.<br />
<LI>It is not uncommon to find under-nutrition and obesity existing side-by-side within the same country, the same community and even within the same household.<br />
<LI>This double burden is caused by inadequate pre-natal, infant and young child nutrition followed by exposure to high-fat, energy-dense, micronutrient-poor foods and lack of physical activity. </LI></UL><br />
<H3 class=sectionHead1>How can the burden of overweight and obesity be reduced?</H3><br />
<P>Overweight and obesity, as well as their related chronic diseases, are largely preventable.</P><br />
<P>At the individual level, people can:</P><br />
<UL class=disc><br />
<LI>achieve energy balance and a healthy weight;<br />
<LI>limit energy intake from total fats and shift fat consumption away from saturated fats to unsaturated fats;<br />
<LI>increase consumption of fruit and vegetables, as well as legumes, whole grains and nuts;<br />
<LI>limit the intake of sugars; and<br />
<LI>increase physical activity &#8211; at least 30 minutes of regular, moderate-intensity activity on most days. More activity may be required for weight control. </LI></UL><br />
<P>The implementation of these recommendations requires sustained political commitment and the collaboration of many stakeholders, public and private. Governments, international partners, civil society and nongovernmental organizations and the private sector have vital roles to play in shaping healthy environments and making healthier diet options affordable and easily accessible. This is especially important for the most vulnerable in society – the poor and children – who have limited choices about the food they eat and the environments in which they live.</P><br />
<P>Initiatives by the food industry to reduce the fat, sugar and salt content of processed foods and portion sizes, to increase introduction of innovative, healthy, and nutritious choices, and to review current marketing practices could accelerate health gains worldwide.</P><br />
<H3 class=sectionHead1>WHO’s strategy for preventing overweight and obesity</H3><br />
<P>Adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2004, the WHO Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health describes the actions needed to support the adoption of healthy diets and regular physical activity. The Strategy calls upon all stakeholders to take action at global, regional and local levels and aims to lead to a significant reduction in the prevalence of chronic diseases and their common risk factors, primarily unhealthy diet and physical inactivity.</P><br />
<P>WHO’s work on diet and physical activity is part of the overall WHO chronic disease prevention and control framework of the Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion. The strategic objectives of the department are to: advocate for health promotion and chronic disease prevention and control; promote health, especially for poor and disadvantaged populations; slow and reverse the adverse trends in the common chronic disease risk factors; and prevent premature deaths and avoidable disability due to major chronic diseases.</P><br />
<P>This work is complemented by that of the Department of Nutrition for Health and Development. The strategic objectives of the department are to promote healthy diets and improve the nutritional status of the population throughout the life course, particularly among the vulnerable. This is achieved by providing support to countries in developing and implementing national intersectoral Food and Nutrition Policies and Programmes to address double-burden of nutrition-related ill-health, and to contribute to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).</P><br />
<P class=inset></P><!-- start contributor information --><br />
<P><SPAN class=contrib><B>For more information contact:</B></SPAN><BR><br />
<P class=contrib>WHO Media centre <BR>Telephone: <SPAN dir=ltr>+41 22 791 2222</SPAN> <BR>E-mail: <A class=ftr href="mailto:mediainquiries@who.int">mediainquiries@who.int</A> </P></p>
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		<title>[대기오염] 미세먼지와 당뇨, 호흡기, 심장, 염증성 질환자의 위험증가</title>
		<link>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1705</link>
		<comments>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1705#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jan 2010 12:11:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[노동 · 환경]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[. diabetes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[congestive heart failure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COPD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당뇨]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[대기오염]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[류마티스성 관절염]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[만성폐쇄성폐질환]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[미세먼지]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[염증성 질환]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[울혈성 심부전]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[2006년 5월 22일자 미국흉부학회 국제학술대회에서 당뇨(32%증가), 심장질환(27% 증가), 만성 폐쇄성 폐질환(28% 증가), 류마티스 관절염 같은 염증성 질환자(22% 증가)는 공기 중의 미세먼지에 오랜 기간 노출이 될 수록 그 위험이 [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2006년 5월 22일자 미국흉부학회 국제학술대회에서 당뇨(32%증가), 심장질환(27% 증가), 만성 폐쇄성 폐질환(28% 증가), 류마티스 관절염 같은 염증성 질환자(22% 증가)는 공기 중의 미세먼지에 오랜 기간 노출이 될 수록 그 위험이 커진다고 발표했다는 내용입니다.<BR><BR><B>Air Pollution Increases Death Risk In People With Certain Diseases</B><BR><BR>Source: American Thoracic Society<BR>Posted: May 22, 2006<BR><BR>SAN DIEGO&#8211;People with diabetes, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis are at increased risk of death when they are exposed to particulate air pollution, or soot, for one or more years, according to a study to be presented at the American Thoracic Society International Conference on May 22nd.<BR><BR>The study looked at hospital discharges for people with these four types of diseases living in 34 cities between 1985 and 1999. The researchers compared this information with 12-month averages of PM10, a type of particulate matter air pollution that includes particles with a diameter of 10 micrometers or less than 0.0004 inches or one-seventh the width of a human hair.<BR><BR>The study found that for an increase of 10 micrograms/per cubic meter of PM10 over two years, the risk of dying was increased by:<BR><BR>* 32% for people with diabetes<BR>* 28% for people with COPD<BR>* 27% in people with congestive heart failure<BR>* 22% for people with inflammatory disease such as rheumatoid arthritis or lupus<BR><BR>&#8220;The study significantly strengthens evidence that breathing in particulate matter is associated with dying sooner,&#8221; said researcher Joel Schwartz, Ph.D., Professor of Environmental Epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston.<BR><BR>&#8220;While previous studies have found that long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with increased risk of death, we looked at risk of death in the first three years after patients were discharged from the hospital, and saw that the risk increased in the first couple of years. That means if we can lower air pollution levels, people will start living longer right away&#8211;we don&#8217;t have to wait many years to see health improvements. That wasn&#8217;t clear from previous air pollution studies.&#8221;<BR><BR>Technology that can reduce particulate matter levels already exists, Dr. Schwartz noted. &#8220;For instance, we know how to put scrubbers on coal-burning power plants, which are a major source of particulate matter. There is no safe level of particulate air pollution, so we need to get the levels as low as reasonably possible.&#8221;<BR><BR>While previous studies have linked exposure to PM10 to harmful effects on breathing and respiratory systems, damage to lung tissue, cancer, and premature death, this is the first study to follow people with specific diseases to determine their risk of death in response to particle exposure, Dr. Schwartz said.<BR><BR>He noted an important difference between this new study and past air pollution studies. &#8220;Past studies have compared average air pollution conditions in one city to other cities, and you need to worry about potential confounders, or other factors that could affect the differences between the cities,&#8221; he said. &#8220;In this study, we looked at air pollution and deaths within each city&#8211;we didn&#8217;t compare across cities, so we didn&#8217;t need to worry about confounding factors.&#8221;<BR><BR>The study helps validate the findings of previous studies that have shown that long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with shortened survival in the general population, said Dr. Schwartz, a co-author of the Six Cities Study, which evaluated the effects of pollution on adults in the 1970s and 1980s. The results of that study found a strong, positive correlation between levels of air pollution and mortality. The study led to a revision of existing air quality standards by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. An eight-year follow up study found an association between people living longer and cities reducing the amount of fine particulate matter in their air. That study was published in the March 15, 2006 issue of the American Thoracic Society journal, The American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine.COPD</p>
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		<title>[유전자] 김빛내리 교수 등 ‘성장조절 마이크로RNA’ 발견</title>
		<link>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1496</link>
		<comments>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1496#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2009 09:53:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[과학기술 · 생의학]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cell(셀)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[노화]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당뇨]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[미르(miR)-8]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[성장조절 마이크로RNA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[암]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[유전자]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1496</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[김빛내리 교수 등 ‘성장조절 마이크로RNA’ 발견한겨레 &#124; 입력 2009.12.11 08:20 &#160;[한겨레] 김빛내리(사진) 서울대 생명과학부 교수와 현서강·이정현 박사 등 연구팀이 인슐린 신호 전달을 조절해 신체 성장에 영향을 끼치는 마이크로 [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><P>김빛내리 교수 등 ‘성장조절 마이크로RNA’ 발견<BR>한겨레 | 입력 2009.12.11 08:20 </P><br />
<P>&nbsp;<BR>[한겨레] 김빛내리(사진) 서울대 생명과학부 교수와 현서강·이정현 박사 등 연구팀이 인슐린 신호 전달을 조절해 신체 성장에 영향을 끼치는 마이크로 아르엔에이(RNA)와 관련 유전자를 발굴해 국제 과학저널 < 셀 > 11일치에 발표한다. </P><br />
<P>마이크로 아르엔에이는 20개가량의 염기로 이뤄진 아주 작은 아르엔에이를 말하는데, 아르엔에이는 오랜 동안 유전정보를 전달하는 수동적인 물질로 이해됐으나 최근엔 유전자와 단백질의 기능에 개입하는 마이크로 아르엔에이들이 잇따라 발견돼 크게 주목받고 있다. </P><br />
<P><BR>이 분야에서 국제적 명성을 얻고 있는 김 교수 연구팀은 이번 연구에서 초파리에 있는 마이크로 아르엔에이의 하나인 &#8216;미르(miR)-8&#8242;(사람에선 &#8216;미르-200&#8242;)이 없어지면 초파리의 몸집이 작게 성장한다는 것을 확인했으며 이 아르엔에이가 지방세포에서 인슐린 신호 전달을 촉진해 어린 초파리의 신체 성장을 조절한다는 사실을 발견했다. </P><br />
<P>또 이 아르엔에이가 제어하는 유전자를 찾아냄으로써 기존에 알려지지 않은 새로운 방식으로 인슐린 신호 전달이 조절되며, 이런 작용이 사람 세포에도 그대로 적용될 수 있음을 확인했다. 연구팀은 &#8220;인슐린 신호 전달이 암·당뇨·노화와 관련이 있어, 이번 연구는 마이크로 아르엔에이와 질병의 연관성을 연구하는 데 중요한 단서가 될 것&#8221;으로 기대했다. </P><br />
<P>오철우 기자 <A href="mailto:cheolwoo@hani.co.kr">cheolwoo@hani.co.kr</A> </P></p>
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		<title>[돼지독감] 약먹는 당뇨병 환자는 왜 신종 플루 우선접종에 빠졌나 (조홍준)</title>
		<link>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1374</link>
		<comments>http://www.chsc.or.kr/?post_type=reference&#038;p=1374#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 12:18:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>건강과대안</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[식품 · 의약품]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[경찰]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[군인]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[당뇨]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[돼지독감]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[백신]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[신종플루]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[우선접종]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[조홍준]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[[한겨레 왜냐면] 약먹는 당뇨병 환자는 왜 신종 플루 우선접종에 빠졌나 경찰과 군인은 포함되면서학생과 접촉많은 교사 빠져 있는 등기준을 이해할 수 없다해결은 민주적 결정뿐 출처 : 한겨레 기사등록 : [...]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[한겨레 왜냐면] 약먹는 당뇨병 환자는 왜 신종 플루 우선접종에 빠졌나 <BR><BR>경찰과 군인은 포함되면서<BR>학생과 접촉많은 교사 빠져 있는 등<BR>기준을 이해할 수 없다<BR>해결은 민주적 결정뿐 <BR><BR>출처 : 한겨레 기사등록 : 2009-11-11 오후 09:34:33&nbsp;<BR><BR>신종 플루로 인한 감염자가 속출하고 사망자가 잇따라 발생하면서, 신종 플루 예방에 효과적인 방법인 백신 접종에 관한 국민적 관심이 증폭되고 있다. 감염은 날고 있는데, 백신 공급은 기고 있는 현실에서 우선접종 집단을 결정하는 일은 피할 수 없으며, 조기에 이를 접종받지 못하는 집단의 불만이 생기는 일은 어찌 보면 당연하다(물론 충분한 양의 백신을 조기에 마련하지 않은 정부에 책임이 있지만, 지금 이를 탓한다고 뾰족한 해결책이 없으니 여기서는 언급하지 않기로 한다). <BR><BR>그런데 정부가 10월22일에 발표한 신종 플루 예방접종 시행 계획을 보면 백신 우선접종 대상과 관련해서 이해되지 않는 것이 한둘이 아니다. 당뇨병 환자 중 인슐린 주사를 맞는 환자만 포함되고, 당뇨병의 거의 대부분을 차지하는 먹는 당뇨병약 복용자는 제외되어 있는 것이 대표적이다. 아마 대부분의 당뇨병 환자들은 이 사실을 모르고 있을 것이고 정부도 이를 상세히 홍보하지 않고 있다. 미국, 영국 등 어느 나라에서도 먹는 당뇨병약 복용자를 우선접종 대상에서 제외하는 지침을 가지고 逞� 않다. 이들을 배제할 아무런 의학적 근거가 없기 때문이다. <BR><BR>또 하나 이상한 것은 경찰과 군인이 우선접종 대상자에 포함되어 있다는 것이다. 경찰과 군인이 국가안보와 질서를 지키는 데 중요하지만 이런 이유만으로 우선접종 순위에 들어갈 수는 없다. 누가 어떤 직종이 다른 직종보다 더 중요하다고 결정할 수 있는가. 어느 나라도 이들을 우선접종 대상에 포함하고 있지 않다. 집단생활로 인한 감염이 문제가 된다면 우선순위는 집단생활을 하는 군인과 전의경에 국한해야 할 것이다. <BR><BR>그래도 의문은 있다. 집단생활을 하는 다른 사람들, 예를 들어 기숙사에 거주하는 노동자나 대학생은 왜 우선순위에 포함되지 않는가? 감염자의 대부분을 차지하는 중·고등학생과 가장 빈번히 접촉하는 교사는 왜 우선접종 대상에서 빠져 있는가? 백신의 우선접종 순위 결정은 예방접종심의위원회를 통해서 감염 위험성과 전염 차단 효과가 큰 순서로 결정되었다고 한다. 그러나 심의위원회의 결정이 순전히 전문적 근거에 의해 내려진 것 같지는 않아 보인다. 어느 전문가도 군인과 경찰을 당뇨병 환자보다 우선순위에 둘 리 없기 때문이다. 백신이 부족한 상황에서 우선순위를 둘러싼 논란은 피할 수 없다. <BR><BR>이런 경우 해결책은 이를 공개적 논의를 통해서 ‘민주적’으로 결정하는 것이다. 이렇게 하면 근거가 확실한 전문적 의견을 바탕으로 국민적 합의를 만들어갈 수 있기 때문이다. 어찌 보면 더디고 복잡한 과정일 수도 있으나, 불필요한 논란과 갈등을 줄이고, 양보를 통한 국민적 합의를 만들 수 있는 과정이다. 접종이 이미 시작된 상태에서 이런 논의를 할 시점이 이미 지나버렸는지도 모른다. 그러나 잘못된 결정은 지금이라도 바로잡아야 한다. 특히 당뇨병 환자는 모두 우선접종 대상자에 포함해야 한다. <BR><BR>조홍준 울산의대 교수·가정의학&nbsp;<BR>&nbsp;</p>
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