Carbon Budget
Data

Data Sources
Atmospheric CO₂. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO₂ is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 1% or about 0.04 PgC of the 4PgC per year accumulated on average since 2000.

Emissions from CO₂ fossil fuel. CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes were calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2006 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2007 and 2008 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.

Emissions from land use change. CO₂ emissions from land use change were calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment. Emissions after 2005 were extrapolated from the previous 25-year trend of 1.5 PgC per year.. We used fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database vs.2 over tropical forests to provide inter-annual variability on emissions over the last three years. Uncertainty of the global estimate of land use emissions is large and considered to be ±0.7 PgC in this analysis. Emission uncertainties at the country level can be large.

Ocean CO₂ sink. The global ocean sink was estimated using an ensemble of four ocean general circulation models coupled to ocean biogeochemistry models. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO₂ concentration.  Recent trends in regional CO₂ sinks in the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, and Pacific oceans were detected directly from repeated observations.

Land CO₂ sink. The terrestrial sink was estimated using an ensemble of 5 global vegetation models forced by observed CO₂ concentration and a combination of meteorological data from the Climatic Research Unit and US National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Data Files

• Data files and a complete description of data sources, uncertainty and calculations is available from: http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm
  
• CO₂ fossil-fuel emissions by country 1980-2008 from CDIAC (Excel, 43Kb). See web link: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html
  
  
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  Carbon Budget
  Other Recent Analyses
  
  출처 : http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/08/recent-analysis.htm
  
  

Allen MR, Frame DJ, Huntingford C, et al. (2009) Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature 458: 1163-1166.

Archer D, Eby M, Brovkin V et al. (2009) Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 37: 117–34.

Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Houghton RA (2009) Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in Africa. Biogeosciences 6: 463-468.

Cadule P, Bopp L, Friedlingstein P (2009) A revised estimate of the processes contributing to global warming due to climate-carbon feedback. Geophysical Research Letters 36:  L14705, doi:10.1029/2009GL038681.

Doney S, Tilbrook B, Roy S, Metzl N, Le Quéré C, Hood M, Feely RA, Bakker D (2009) Surface Ocean CO₂ Variability and Vulnerability. Deep-Sea Res II, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.016.

Gregg JS, Andres RJ, Marland G (2008) China: emissions pattern of the world leader in CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production.  Geophysical Research Letters 35: L08806, DOI 10.1029/2007GL032887.

Gruber N, Gloor M, Mikaloff Fletcher SE, et al. (2009) Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO₂. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles. 23: GB1005, doi:10.1029/2008GB003349.

Jackson RB, Randerson JT, Canadell JG, Anderson R, Avissar R, Baldocchi DD, Bonan GB, Caldeira K, Diffenbaugh NS, Field CB, Hungate BA, Jobbágy EG, Kueppers LM, Nosetto MD, Pataki DE (2008) Protecting Climate with Forests. Environmental Research Letters 3, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044006.

Jaenicke J, Rieley JO,  Mott C, Kimman P, Siegert F (2008) Determination of the amount of carbon stored in Indonesian peatlands. Geoderma 147: 151–158.

Hertwich EG, Peters GP (2009) The carbon footprint of nations – a global, trade-linked analysis. Environmental Science and Technology 43:6414-6420.

Hofmann DJ, Butler JH, Tans PP (2009) A new look at atmospheric carbon dioxide. Atmospheric Environment 43: 2084–2086.

Hönisch B, Hemming NG, Archer D, Siddall M, McManus JF (2009) Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration Across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. Science 324, DOI: 10.1126/science.1171477.

House JI, Huntingford C, Wolfgang Knorr W, Cornell WE, Cox PM, Glen R Harris GR, Jones CD, Lowe JA, Prentice IC (2008) What do recent advances in quantifying climate and carbon cycle uncertainties mean for climate policy? Environ. Res. Lett. 3: 044002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044002.

Krey V, Canadell JG, Nakicenovic N, Abe Y, Andruleit H, Archer D, Grubler A, Hamilton NTM, Johnson A, Kostov V, Lamarque J-F, Langhorne N, Nisbet EG, O’Neill B, Riahi K, Riedel M, Wang W, Yakushev V (2009)  Gas Hydrates: Entrance to a Methane Age or Climate Threat? Environmental Research Letters 4: 034007 (6pp), doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/034007

Lenton A, Codron F, Bopp L, Metzl N, Cadule P, Tagliabue A, Le Sommer J (2009) Stratospheric ozone depletion reduces ocean carbon uptake and enhances ocean acidification. Geophys. Res. Let. 36, L12606.

Le Quéré C, Raupach MR3, Canadell JG3, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689

Loire et al (2009) Boosted carbon emissions from Amazon deforestation. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L14810, doi:10.1029/2009GL037526.

Lowe JA, Huntingford C, Raper SCB, et al. (2009) How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming? Environmental Research Letters 4: 014012.

Marland G, Hamal K, Jonas M (2009) How uncertain are estimates of CO₂ emissions. Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7.

Mercado LM, Bellouin N, Sitch S, et al. (2009) Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink. Nature 458: 1014-U87.

Peters GP et al. (2009) Trade, transport, and sinks extend the carbon dioxide responsibility of countries. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9606-2.

Peters GP, Hertwich EG (2008) CO₂ embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42: 1401-1407.

Piao S, Fang J, Ciais P, Peylin P, Huang Y, Sitch S, Wang T (2009) The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China. Nature 458: 1009-1013, doi:10.1038/nature07944.

Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO₂ growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613.

Schuur EAG, Vogel JG, Crummer KG, Lee H, Sickman JO, Osterkamp TE (2009) The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra. Nature 459, doi:10.1038/nature08031.

Schuster U, Watson AJ, Bates N, Corbière A, Gonzalez-Davila M, Metzl N, Pierrot D, Santana-Casiano M (2009 Trends in North Atlantic sea surface pCO₂ from 1990 to 2006. Deep-Sea Res II, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.011.

Sitch S, Huntigford C, Gedney N et al. (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 1–25, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x.

Takahashi T, Sutherland SC, Wanninkhof R, et al(2009) Climatological mean and decadal change in surface ocean pCO₂ and net sea-air CO₂ flux over the global oceans. Deep-Sea Res. II 56: 554-577, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.009.

Tarnocai C, Canadell JG, Mazhitova G, Schuur EAG, P. Kuhry P, Zimov S (2009) Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, GB2023, doi:10.1029/2008GB003327.

van der Werf GR, Morton DC, DeFries RS et al. (2009) CO₂ emissions from forest loss. Nature geoscience 2. November 2009

van der Werf GR,Dempewolf J, Trigg SN (2008) Climate regulation of fire emissions and deforestation in equatorial Asia. PNAS 105: 20350–20355

West, TO, Marland G, Singh N, Bhaduri BL, Roddy AB (2009) The human carbon budget: an estimate of the spatial distribution of metabolic carbon consumption and release in the United States. Biogeochemistry 94: 29-41. DOI 10.1007/s10533-009-9306-z.

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Carbon Budget
References Supporting this Analysis

This year’s budget release is based on:

Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G Laurent Bopp, Philippe Ciais, Thomas J. Conway, Scott C. Doney, Richard A. Feely, Pru Foster, Pierre Friedlingstein, Kevin Gurney, Richard A. Houghton, Joanna I. House, Chris Huntingford, Peter E. Levy, Mark R. Lomas, Joseph Majkut, Nicolas Metzl, Jean P. Ometto, Glen P. Peters, I. Colin Prentice, James T. Randerson, Steven W. Running, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Ute Schuster, Stephen Sitch, Taro Takahashi, Nicolas Viovy, Guido R. van der Werf and F. Ian Woodward (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature Geoscience 2, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689

Other supporting references cited in the powerpoint “Carbon Budget 2008″:

Canadell JG, Corinne Le Quéré, Michael R. Raupach, Christopher B. Field, Erik T. Buitehuis, Philippe Ciais, Thomas J. Conway, RA. Houghton, Gregg Marland (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO₂ growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 0702737104

Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Houghton RA (2008) Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in Africa. Biogeosciences 6: 463-468.

International Monetary Fund (2009) World economic outlook. October 2009.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/index.htm

Le Quéré C, Raupach MR3, Canadell JG3, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689.

Le Quéré C, Rödenbeck C, Buitenhuis ET, Conway TJ, Langensfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschangne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, Gillett NP, Heimann M (2007) Saturations of the Southern Ocean CO₂ sink due to recent climate change. Science 316: 1735-1738.

Marland G, Hamal K, Jonas M (2009) How uncertain are estimates of CO₂ emissions. Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7.

Peters GP, Hertwich EG (2008) CO₂ embodied international trade with implications for global climate policy. Enivornmental Science and Technology 42: 1401-1407.

Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO₂ growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613.

Raupach MR, G. Marland, P. Ciais, C. Quéré, J.G. Canadell, C.B. Field (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO₂ emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 14: 10288-10293.

Sitch S, Huntigford C, Gedney N et al. (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 1–25, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x.

van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Giglio L, Collatz GL, Kasibhatla PS, Arellano AF, Jr (2006) Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6: 3423–3441.